February 13, 2007

Bubble War! Long Island versus Bay Area!

The other day, LIBubble posted this comment on this blog:

Nice Try Long Island – 2% affordability means nothing! — Burbed.com: Your Silicon Valley Home and Mortgage Insanity Blog
What are we having some kind of a bubble war here? I’m not going to compare LI housing to Cali, they are both overpriced markets. Cali has its super high house prices, but it also has higher incomes; Long Island has the highest taxes and the salaries aren’t that great. Most people that have high income here have to commute to/from the city!

Whoa there! Is the claim that the bubble in Long Island is better/more special than the bubble here?

Let’s do a match up between Money’s data for Mountain View, in super special Silicon Valley, and North Hempstead, in not super special Long Island:

mountainview.png northhempstead.png

So what do we see:

  • Mountain View has a median income that is 16.7% less than North Hempstead
  • But yet house prices are 3.4% more. 

Sorry LIBubble – your theory is wrong. People earn less and pay more here for housing.
Here are some other facts:

  • Mountain View’s schools are slightly better (but that’s unique to Mountain View – look at neighboring Sunnyvale and San Jose)
  • Mountain View does have a shorter commute because that’s where all the jobs are.
  • Wow… look at the delta of Libraries and Museums! Adjusted for population, North Hempstead has 73% more museums (Though that’s due to the Manhattan factor).
  • I was really surprised to see that North Hempstead has 29 ski resources within 100 miles.
  • But the killer is the weather. Look at how awesome the weather is here.

And that’s why housing prices can only go up here in the Bay Area.

Click here to post a comment -- Posted by: burbed @ 5:40 am

No Responses to “Bubble War! Long Island versus Bay Area!”

  1. JasonofsoCal Says:

    Tsk tsk. You forgot the Fry’s comparison.

    There is no Fry’s in Long Island afterall. And we all know that an area without a Fry’s is no area at all.

    ;-)

  2. LIBubble Says:

    First off, it was YOU who said, “Nice Try Long Island – 2% affordability means nothing!”. To me this sounds like YOU are the one doing the comparing and that is why I commented in the first place. If you read my post again you will notice that I said I’m NOT going to compare LI housing affordability to the Bay area because they are BOTH overpriced markets and therefore, they are BOTH very unaffordable; thus I wouldn’t buy into EITHER one of these markets.

    I do realize now that I am a housing bear arguing with a housing bull.

    It would be impossible to compare which is the least affordable for several obvious reasons. Incomes here on Long Island vary alot depending on where you live and what trade you are in; the same can be said for the Bay area. Also, don’t be fooled by what you read off of the money web site regarding salaries; a lot of that info is bogus! …and so is the quality of life! In all state’s, there are good areas and there are also bad areas; North Hempstead is not among the good areas.

    There must be a reason why you chose those two cities, I would think that you would compare similar areas; and you may be, but if you are, then Mountainview must not be such a good area. I’m not sure because I only know North Hempstead.

    I do not know much about the Bay area, but I did read on several blogs that people were posting some very high salaries that are unheard of here on Long Island. There are also many more Technical jobs in your area than there are here on Long Island.

    To compare the two would be like comparing apples to oranges; like I said before, they both have their reasons for being very unaffordable.

    I don’t think Long Island is special at all, in fact I am the one who is always saying that it is going down hill at warp speed and advice many to leave! Take a look at my site and you will see.

    …and if you think prices can only go up, you are REALLY being silly.

  3. burbed Says:

    >>There must be a reason why you chose those two cities, I would think that you would compare similar areas; and you may be, but if you are, then Mountainview must not be such a good area. I’m not sure because I only know North Hempstead.

    Well it’s hard to compare because North Hempstead is a pretty big area that has 400k people. But Mountain View is one of the shining star cities of Silicon Valley. It’s where Google is among other things. And if it weren’t that nice, then why would be so expensive? :)

    It’s probably comparable to nicer parts of Mineola and Garden City (which I think are shared with Hempstead).

    Direct comparables I guess would be Palo Alto and Port Washington. (Palo Alto is where Steve Jobs lives most of the time.)

    Here’s data from Year 2000:

    http://www.city-data.com/city/Port-Washington-New-York.html

    Median household income: $85,837 (year 2000)
    Median house value: $416,100 (year 2000)
    4.85x ratio

    http://www.city-data.com/city/Palo-Alto-California.html

    Median household income: $90,377 (year 2000)
    Median house value: $811,800 (year 2000)

    8.98x ratio

    And one other point:
    >>I do not know much about the Bay area, but I did read on several blogs that people were posting some very high salaries that are unheard of here on Long Island. There are also many more Technical jobs in your area than there are here on Long Island.

    That’s a hard comparison too – do you consider jobs in Manhattan as jobs on Long Island? There are very few jobs in Long Island – so yeah you’re right. But if you include Manhattan then the equation changes.

    That said, Tech jobs are still rarer in Manhattan than in the Bay Area, but it’s vice versa for Finance/Marketing jobs – so it’s sort of a wash.

    The Salaries that you see in the Bay Area on patrick.net is mostly sarcasm. :)

    According to HUD, here are the median incomes in 2006:

    NEW YORK-NORTHERN NEW JERSEY-LONG ISLAND, NY-NJ-PA
    $70900

    SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA
    $97100

    Again, hard to compare since the population in the NY/NJ/PA stat is probably 10 million. But still, median income is a little larger – but house prices are almost double here.

  4. CatSynth Says:

    OK, that’s at least two Long Island posts in the last couple of weeks. What about Westchester – New York City’s northern suburb? Having grown up there, I’m pretty sure it has some pretty high housing prices – you’ve got Scarsdale, and Chappaqua (my home town, and home of Hillary Clinton).

  5. burbed Says:

    Good idea – I’ll start reading up on Chappaqua and Scarsdale.

    Anyone famous come from those places? Like… some more Baldwin brothers? :)

  6. bub Says:

    “I do realize now that I am a housing bear arguing with a housing bull.”

    Burbed a housing bull?????

    WTF?

  7. Liz Says:

    Thanks for the amusing post! I’m here on Long Island trying to wait out the bubble so i can buy a house. I’m just so sick of watching prices skyrocket out of the hemisphere! I don’t make any more than I did in 2000 because all of my wage increases have been eaten up by the significant increase in what i have to pay for health benefits.

    Our contract had a balloon raise last year at the end of a certain period with no increases (4 years)… The company told us “no raise” but you can keep your job!

    total b.s.!!! – liz

  8. LIBubble Says:

    “I do realize now that I am a housing bear arguing with a housing bull.”

    Burbed a housing bull?????

    WTF?

    Well, since he was saying how great it is to live in CA and that the prices were justifiably high and will continue to go up; it certainly sounds like the words of a bull to me.

    Liz,

    Thanks for the amusing post! I’m here on Long Island trying to wait out the bubble so i can buy a house.

    Why do you want to buy a house here? Yes, prices are going to fall; and then they are going to fall again and then again [insert an infinite amount of "and then again's" here]!

    Taxes though, are here to stay and they will continue their upward climb along with all the other costs to live here while your salary will go nowhere except maybe to another state where the company can pay less and get a less stressed out worker.

    It is no wonder that so many are already in over there heads and many want to get out. In fact, there are so many that have owned a house before the bubble and they want to take their equity and run to someplace where the cost of living is cheaper and they are now desperately trying to find a buyer.

    http://www.wnyc.org/news/articles/72706

  9. Liz Says:

    Morning LI Bubble!

    You are right about asking why i want to buy here. My boyfriend and I are actually starting to think about just finding a nice place to rent for the next 10 years or so until he is eligible for his state pension. At that point we are thinking we would just move away with our tons of cash.

    We seriously don’t fit in with the “Long Island Culture.” I see my friends and family raising kids that are obsessed with material possessions and who completely disregard the importance of doing good for others and living a moral life. My brother and his wife have an immense house filled completely with crap, a 5 car garage filled with crap, additional sheds filled with crap AND EVEN STILL HAVE TO RENT SPACE IN A STORAGE FACILITY. His R.E. taxes are over 15k a year!

    Yup, i should get the heck out of dodge!

  10. burbed Says:

    My brother and his wife have an immense house filled completely with crap, a 5 car garage filled with crap, additional sheds filled with crap AND EVEN STILL HAVE TO RENT SPACE IN A STORAGE FACILITY.

    I take it you haven’t been to Silicon Valley either. If you did, you’d know that’s a phenomenon that exists everywhere.

    I see my friends and family raising kids that are obsessed with material possessions and who completely disregard the importance of doing good for others and living a moral life.

    That sucks. You should move to Silicon Valley where people brag to each other about how many hours they spend at the office. :)

    There’s a reason why Google has so many in-office perks.

  11. “Affordability is the lowest here of anywhere in the U.S.” - Long Island is less affordable?? -- Burbed.com: Your Silicon Valley Home and Mortgage Insanity Blog Says:

    [...] home price of $450k with a median income of $91k in Long Island. Also, as show in my previous bubble war piece, in desirable areas like Mountain View, CA (home of Google) vs North Hempstead, NY (home of [...]

  12. 2,418 sqft house with .71 acres for $999,000 - where? -- Burbed.com: Your Silicon Valley Home and Mortgage Insanity Blog Says:

    [...] while ago, Burbed reader CatSynth asked: OK, that’s at least two Long Island posts in the last couple of weeks. What about Westchester – [...]

  13. Karlaaq Says:

    q
    Very Interesting…

    bb

  14. Michael Says:

    Libubble is a fraud and a liar. Long Island is great and so is Mountain View. You guys can have him. He has driven down prices in the yown he lives. His website LongIslandbubble.com infects your computer with a tracking virus; do not even click on his site !

  15. burbed Says:

    I sense some negative feelings here…


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