Comments on: "prices to jump by 10% or more in 2008" http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/ San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley House Price and Mortgage Insanity Blog Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:11:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Renting is better than buying - If you assume less than 5% appreciation -- Burbed.com: Your Silicon Valley Home and Mortgage Insanity Blog http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1086 Renting is better than buying - If you assume less than 5% appreciation -- Burbed.com: Your Silicon Valley Home and Mortgage Insanity Blog Wed, 11 Apr 2007 13:58:46 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1086 [...] clearly this writer didn’t do enough research - what about interviewing experts like Byron Alvarez: Byron Alvarez of the REMAX Real Estate Center, a 27-year real estate veteran, expects prices to [...] [...] clearly this writer didn’t do enough research – what about interviewing experts like Byron Alvarez: Byron Alvarez of the REMAX Real Estate Center, a 27-year real estate veteran, expects prices to [...]

]]> By: TNTinCA http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1085 TNTinCA Mon, 09 Apr 2007 21:35:13 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1085 Oh, how I do love the supply and demand argument. One should access the census information for Silicon Valley for the past 5 years. The population of the area is actually declining. While at the same time, new homes are being constructed. So how exactly does that correlate with the notion of supply and demand. The author of the "housing bull" article also is using quantitative amounts to justify his position. That is equivalent to me saying "my net worth is X dollars and the net worth of someone my age in 1970 was much smaller. Therefore, I am rich". It is not inflation adjusted. Ultimately, my answer to anyone that uses the supply and demand argument is to simply ask them the following question: "If a law was passed tomorrow that demanded new home buyers place a minimum of 20% down on a home and have only a choice of either a 15 or 30 year fixed rate mortgage, what would happen to real estate prices?" Any guesses? Well we all know; they would plummet. Everyone heard all these arguments before during the dot com runup. The "new economy" and "this time its different". But ultimately, the bears of that timeframe (The Buffetts, the Soros', the Shillers) all proved to be right in the end. Now these same people indicate the same problem exists in housing. So who are you going to believe? The 27 year old real estate "veteran" or the financial genius' of our lifetime? Oh, how I do love the supply and demand argument.

One should access the census information for Silicon Valley for the past 5 years. The population of the area is actually declining. While at the same time, new homes are being constructed. So how exactly does that correlate with the notion of supply and demand.

The author of the “housing bull” article also is using quantitative amounts to justify his position. That is equivalent to me saying “my net worth is X dollars and the net worth of someone my age in 1970 was much smaller. Therefore, I am rich”. It is not inflation adjusted.

Ultimately, my answer to anyone that uses the supply and demand argument is to simply ask them the following question:
“If a law was passed tomorrow that demanded new home buyers place a minimum of 20% down on a home and have only a choice of either a 15 or 30 year fixed rate mortgage, what would happen to real estate prices?”

Any guesses? Well we all know; they would plummet.

Everyone heard all these arguments before during the dot com runup. The “new economy” and “this time its different”. But ultimately, the bears of that timeframe (The Buffetts, the Soros’, the Shillers) all proved to be right in the end. Now these same people indicate the same problem exists in housing. So who are you going to believe? The 27 year old real estate “veteran” or the financial genius’ of our lifetime?

]]> By: Brent http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1084 Brent Mon, 09 Apr 2007 19:06:08 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1084 A "27-year real estate veteran" or a 27 year-old real estate veteran? A “27-year real estate veteran” or a 27 year-old real estate veteran?

]]> By: i8thekittypurr http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1083 i8thekittypurr Mon, 09 Apr 2007 16:42:45 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1083 He should immediately be investigated for fraud for any RE transactions he's been involved in for the last 5 years. He should immediately be investigated for fraud for any RE transactions he’s been involved in for the last 5 years.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1082 Kevin Mon, 09 Apr 2007 03:39:00 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1082 Absolutely- this period is just a minor blip- after all, the bubble is bogus! Proof: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/07/10/BUG8JDLA661.DTL Absolutely- this period is just a minor blip- after all, the bubble is bogus! Proof:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/07/10/BUG8JDLA661.DTL

]]> By: Mr.Saito http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1081 Mr.Saito Sun, 08 Apr 2007 07:59:47 +0000 http://www.burbed.com/2007/04/07/prices-to-jump-by-10-or-more-in-2008/#comment-1081 I'll start hunting for a bowling trophy at the thrift stores so it can be awarded to the winning quote; however, I think this guy may have already spit out the winner...what a dolt! I’ll start hunting for a bowling trophy at the thrift stores so it can be awarded to the winning quote; however, I think this guy may have already spit out the winner…what a dolt!

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