April 11, 2007

Renting is better than buying – If you assume less than 5% appreciation

A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent – New York Times
But in a stark reversal, it’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move. In much of the country, including large parts of the Northeast, California, Florida and the Southwest, recent home buyers have faced higher monthly costs than renters and have lost money on their investment in the meantime. It’s almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters.Most striking, perhaps, is the fact that prices may not yet have fallen far enough for buying to look better than renting today, except for people who plan to stay in a home for many years.

With the spring moving season under way, The New York Times has done an analysis of buying vs. renting in every major metropolitan area. The analysis includes data on housing costs and looks at different possibilities for the path of home prices in coming years.

It found that even though rents have recently jumped, the costs that come with buying a home — mortgage payments, property taxes, fees to real estate agents — remain a lot higher than the costs of renting. So buyers in many places are basically betting that home prices will rise smartly in the near future.

Over the next five years, which is about the average amount of time recent buyers have remained in their homes, prices in the Los Angeles area would have to rise more than 5 percent a year for a typical buyer there to do better than a renter. The same is true in Phoenix, Las Vegas, the New York region, Northern California and South Florida.

Did you catch the mistake there?

Yep… this ignorant MSM writer lumped Northern California with Las Vegas, Phoenix, New York and South Florida.

Uh, hello. This is the San Francisco Bay Area – it’s special here.

Why are you trying to confuse your readers? Everyone knows they don’t have smart people, good weather, sushi, good weather, burritos, good weather, Great Mall, good weather, El Camino Real, good weather, world class universities, good weather, or diversity in any of those places.

And clearly this writer didn’t do enough research – what about interviewing experts like Byron Alvarez:

Byron Alvarez of the REMAX Real Estate Center, a 27-year real estate veteran, expects prices to jump by 10 percent or more in 2008.

“We’re going to be sitting here 4 or 5 years from now when we’re at the peak of the up cycle saying: ‘Remember ‘06 and ‘07?’ We should have been buying everything on the market,” Alvarez said.

Who are you going to trust? Some snooty east coast hack? Or your local real estate expert?

5%? Peh. 10%’s in the bag baby.

Comments (8) -- Posted by: burbed @ 5:56 am

8 Responses to “Renting is better than buying – If you assume less than 5% appreciation”

  1. i8thekittypurr Says:

    Don’t forget The Mystery Spot, The Rosicrucian Museum, and the Sabercats.

  2. Brendan Says:

    So who do you trust? I don’t know about you guys but I’ve been watching prices in areas of the south bay I’d actually like to live in. While they aren’t as inflated as late 2005/2006 it seems like they still are rising in some cases. Also it seems that homes in the more desirable areas are still being overbid.

    Now maybe we’re just taking longer to catch up. I sure hope so. I plan on renting at LEAST another year until I will even consider buying. I have a sweet deal right now. My apt is about 1200 sq feet, two bedroom 1 bath for 1250/month. Not bad. I do not have in-unit laundry, and I don’t have A/C, but with all the money I’m saving over buying who really cares.

    I’m just hoping the prices will come down. I definitely trust math more than speculation. That is exactly what has been keeping me out of the market.

  3. Brendan Says:

    Oh… and don’t forget the San Jose Gran Prix. (I have to admit that actually IS a plus to me. haha)

  4. i8thekittypurr Says:

    “1200 sq feet, two bedroom 1 bath for 1250/month”

    That IS a sweet deal–unfortunately, I think it’s going to be 2-3 years before the South Bay sees anything more than nominal decreases, except in p[laces like EPA, East and South San Jose. That’s why I’m moving to Sac to buy, it’s a bloodbath up there.

  5. burbed Says:

    >>That’s why I’m moving to Sac to buy, it’s a bloodbath up there.

    SWEET!

    Texas style living at California prices.

  6. i8thekittypurr Says:

    “Texas style living at California prices.”

    LOL–you suck dude :)

    Lots of relatives in the Bay, gotta keep the kiddies close, otherwise, we’d have been GONE a few years back.

  7. Walter Sear Says:

    5% per year = 27% over 5 years

  8. burbed Says:

    Kind of crazy huh? That you need 27% appreciation over 5 years to beat renting.


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