The housing downturn begain in late 2005?
San Jose Mercury News – From bad to ‘worst’ for Santa Clara County home sales
For the first time since the housing downturn began in late 2005, housing prices in Santa Clara County dropped last month compared with a year earlier.
Uh, the housing downturn so didn’t happen in late 2005.
How’s that even possible? After all, this best selling book was published on February 21, 2006:
Talk about bogus news.
February 15th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“For the first time since the housing downturn began in late 2005, housing prices in Santa Clara County dropped last month compared with a year earlier.”
Hmmmm. I forget: is Santa Clara still part of the “real Bay Area”?
My suspicion is that when this housing debacle is finally over, the “Real Bay Area” will consist of a 4 block radius in a section of Atherton.
February 15th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
What is special about Atherton? You mean people live there? Who? What do they do? I always thought it was one of those dummy train stations on the caltrain line just to have a stop every 4 minutes.
February 15th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Katrina. I hate to blame a hurricane, but that was the turning point. Gas shot up over a buck, housing starting bombing, and my Ebay sales started dropping right then. I never thought housing would affect electronics equipment and component sales, but it sure did. In mid-2007 my sales went down by about 2/3.
But the start of the sour times was right when Katrina hit. Katrina was the ice chip dropped into the supercooled cup of water.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Guys,
Read beyond the headlines!
Here’s what the headline says: From bad to ‘worst’ for Santa Clara County home sales
Read the article, and you find the following:
>>The median price of existing houses that changed hands in the county in January was $692,000, down from $710,000 in January 2007
Wow! What a stunner! Home price in Santa Clara County dropped 2.5% in January, a month where few people traditionally shop for houses.
>>In January, Abramowitz lost out to other bidders on two homes before beating four other buyers to get her Sunnyvale house.
>>Abramowitz said she had to present skittish lenders with evidence that home prices in her chosen neighborhood were not depreciating – in fact, they were rising.
Geez, sounds like a downturn to me!
Richard Carlson of Spectrum Economics said:
“core Bay Area . . . is likely to be one of the best-performing markets in the country.”
Guys, if you’re looking to buy in one of slum or outlying areas, definitely take advantage of the downturn. If your objective is to live in the real Bay Area, I wouldn’t hold my breadth if I were you.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Hey realestater, can the bar stools hold your breadth any more?
LOL it’s “breath” okay?
Prices are dropping like crazy all over, and especially in the most inflated areas. Santa Clara county is just one of these areas. There’s way too much housing. Have you seen those huge blocks of cells, er, condos being built in the city of Santa Clara itself?
Yahoo’s laying off, Cisco, etc. Biotech’s not turned out to save the BA economy, the whole thing’s been propped up by RE.
I’ll admit I have a weakness for the BA in my heart of hearts since anywhere with that many people, will generate jobs for the go-getters. The better housecleaner. The better street artist or performer. The better seamstress doing alterations. The better pushcart ice cream vendor. And the BA’s decent public transpo means you don’t have to be shackled to a car, unlike flyover country where I am now.
But the trend is going to be people moving OUT of the BA for the next several years. BA RE will only be a better performer in that it may lose less than outlying areas not viable when gas is over $3. You’ll still lose money on it.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
>> ex-sunnyvale-renter
You’re wasting your “breadth”.
You’d have better luck trying to explain integral calculus to a chimpanzee than attempting to explain to FakeEstater what the true nature of the housing bubble really is.
He thinks the “minor correction” is over and it was just a hiccup. Has no idea that this is just the beginning of this downturn. But let him figure it out the hard way as his bubble sitting ass gets the strap-on treatment.
And if you read between the lines of his posts; for example:
“If your objective is to live in the real Bay Area, I wouldn’t hold my breadth if I were you.”
Are we entering into desperation mode? No wait, clearly he just has our “best interests” in mind. Why else would he be posting here.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
ex-sunnyvale-renter:
>>Prices are dropping like crazy all over
Prices are dropping like crazy where you are. That’s why if you’re not in the BA you are screwed. Yahoo will be sold for a minimum of 44.5 Billion. As a Yahoo stock owner, I’m already getting some free money out of the news. I’m sure Yahoo employees own more YHOO stock than me. Directors and up will shop for new homes in the real Bay Area soon enough.
There’s a lot more going on. Stanford University Hospital is starting a major expansion, and did you see the big building on 101 (formerly site of the dot com company “At Home”) being renovated for Stanford University Medicine? I think BA peninsula will become a major healthcare hub in addition to being high tech center. There will be wave after wave of new comers who will all need somewhere to live.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Prices are dropping like crazy where you are. That’s why if you’re not in the BA you are screwed. Yahoo will be sold for a minimum of 44.5 Billion. As a Yahoo stock owner, I’m already getting some free money out of the news. I’m sure Yahoo employees own more YHOO stock than me. Directors and up will shop for new homes in the real Bay Area soon enough.
ROFLMFAO!
Hey burbed, can you start an archive of all these gems? I want a nice posting history of FakeEstater’s statements so 5 years from now we can look back and get a nice chuckle.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Anybody seen this article before?
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay06/shiller-housing.html
February 15th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Malcolm,
Do you get all your info from the Bubble blogs? No wonder you cannot accept reality.
I’m in favor of loggin these comments for not just 5 years, but 10 years. You’ll be looking as foolish as you were 7 years ago when you cashed out on your stock options but failed to capture the gains in the real estate market.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Do you get all your info from the Bubble blogs? No wonder you cannot accept reality.
This from a guy whose primary information source is his grandmother’s house sales history?? LMAO!
I’m in favor of loggin these comments for not just 5 years, but 10 years. You’ll be looking as foolish as you were 7 years ago when you cashed out on your stock options but failed to capture the gains in the real estate market.
You mean as foolish as I was to cash out my stock options when everyone (who sounded VERY similar to the way you are sounding right now) told me to hold on and stay the course? Yes. I certainly feel foolish having a few million diversified amongst various asset classes. Woe is me.
What a way to start the long weekend! Thanks for the laughs yet again Fake Estater. Enjoy your ride on the housing roller coaster express. Keep you arms (ARMs) and legs in the car at all times.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
RealEstater,
I work in healthcare. The real Bay Area is so expensive hospitals/clinics ( eg Kaiser, Palo Alto Med Foundation, Stanford, UCSF, etc.) are having serious trouble recruiting physicians. Stanford may build it ( a bigger hospital/healthcare system) but they ( MD’s) will not come, UNTIL the real estate/cost of living “relaxes” a bit. Of course they could just staff the new healthcare center with ex yahoo and google millionares!
February 15th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
>>You mean as foolish as I was to cash out my stock options when everyone (who sounded VERY similar to the way you are sounding right now) told me to hold on and stay the course?
You mean when you sold the options at the peak, and then held on for another year to save money on taxes? LOL…who are you kidding? Many people did just that, and when the stock market tanked, their down payment evaporated. Sorry for the painful memories. Only the people who converted stocks to houses ended up with real assets.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Correction: Exercised the options at the peak
February 15th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
You mean when you sold the options at the peak, and then held on for another year to save money on taxes? LOL…who are you kidding? Many people did just that, and when the stock market tanked, their down payment evaporated.
LMAO!
So beyond just your lack of knowledge of real estate, you also have no fundamental knowledge of how stock options work.
If I SOLD the options at the peak, it was converted to cash. I did not “hold” for another year to save money on taxes. (WTF are you talking about by the way)
My guess is you are confused with selling options and exercising options. (Big surprise; Fake Estater is confused)
The difference: exercising options means you invoke you right to convert your options into common stock and then hold said stock.
Same day option sales implies you exercise the option, converting it into common stock and then SELL the stock. i.e., you convert it to CASH. Which you can then invest in things like, oh, CDs, bonds, other stocks, ETFs and perhaps even real estate. Unless of course you have the business acumen to realize a secondary bubble forming and act accordingly. But hey, you wouldn’t know anything about that, would you Fake Estater?
Man you are one dense dude. And you’re in tech? Must be either tech support or IT. Dev certainly wouldn’t hire someone that moronic.
Hey while you’re at it, how about explain to the other poster (Norcalboomer) how you justify the fact that housing in the Bay Area exceeds the capabilities of even Med School graduates? Guess they better get used to commuting from Antioch. Because the “Real Bay Area” is only for CEOs. Hope those CEOs don’t need to visit the ER anytime soon.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
You mean when you sold the options at the peak, and then held on for another year to save money on taxes?
———————
This time, after reading above line, I have serious doubt if he is a tech guy and EVER got any option.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
And yes I read the correction. Still does not make sense.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Malcolm:
I did correct my post to say “exercise” the options. It’s too late for you to back-track now. I’m only telling it the way you told me. If you converted to cash right at that moment, you are not entitled to long term capital gains for the gain up to that point. Trying to have your cake and eat it too?
February 15th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
As a Yahoo stock owner, I’m already getting some free money out of the news.
————
There goes the great performer in the portfolio since Jan 2006.
———–
That’s why if you’re not in the BA you are screwed. Yahoo will be sold for a minimum of 44.5 Billion.
——————
That’s the most native comment I read in this thread. Did you follow any takeover news in past? Especially hostile takeovers?
Just like any other takeover negotiation, the final price tag will be neither 45 billion nor 31 billion. It will be somewhere in between.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
RealEstater,
What exactly mean by this following statement?
“you mean when you exercised the options at the peak, and then held on for another year to save money on taxes?”
If someone got the options in non-peak time and then exercised the options at the peak, how it is a bad idea?
February 15th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Come on Malcolm,
Take it easy on the guy, he is saying that you lose the tax savings of a stock that rose 100% and then tank 90%. You know, that’s how people got f**ked by options.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
It’s too late for you to back-track now. I’m only telling it the way you told me. If you converted to cash right at that moment, you are not entitled to long term capital gains for the gain up to that point. Trying to have your cake and eat it too?
FakeEstater,
I worked for the company in question for 4 years, riding the boom up. I exercised and held on a few occasions during the good times. Towards the top, when things were spiraling to the stratosphere, I started dumping options straight away since it was obvious that things were definitely not normal. So yes, I did a combination of both exercising and same day sales. Not everything is completely absolute my ill-informed friend.
So yes, some of my gains had higher tax rates, some lower. Hope that “clarifies” things.
Speaking of clarification, how about explaining to the individual in the health care industry how the home prices are “justified” if even MDs can’t afford a home?
rick Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Come on Malcolm,
Take it easy on the guy, he is saying that you lose the tax savings of a stock that rose 100% and then tank 90%. You know, that’s how people got f**ked by options.
That is very true. AMT is a killer if things go against you timing wise. Kind of like over-leveraging on a home and watching its value erode. Especially if you refied and have a nice recourse loan.
And rick, you are somewhat late to the party I think. If myself and others seem to be “bullying” poor ol’ RealEstater, you may want to backtrack through the posting history to take a look at the nonsense, rubbish and downright falsehoods he has been spouting. May give you an idea of why this dialog is going on.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
>>I work in healthcare. The real Bay Area is so expensive hospitals/clinics ( eg Kaiser, Palo Alto Med Foundation, Stanford, UCSF, etc.) are having serious trouble recruiting physicians.
Healthcare has many problems, including shortage of doctors, nurses, and pharmacists. However, these problems are seen nation-wide, and the root cause is not housing.
Bay Area has many advantages, including weather and prestige. Would any self-respecting MD turn down a tenure at Stanford or UCSF? Build it and they will come. I’m a strong beleiver that healthcare will grow rapidly in the coming years.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Malcolm,
These “clarifications” come pretty late, don’t you think? All this time you were telling us you paid long term capital gains, which requires holding the stock for 1 year. We all know what happened 1 year after the peak, which you claimed you sold at.
Anyways, I hope this taught you a lesson. I was paying attention, and your inconsistent claims stuck out like a sore thumb. In any case, if you’re happy with your fake money, then I’m happy for you.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Speaking of healthcare, the growth in healthcare feeds the need for IT in the Bay Area. All these places are doing electronic medical records, which require new IT infastructure from the ground up.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
These “clarifications” come pretty late, don’t you think? All this time you were telling us you paid long term capital gains, which requires holding the stock for 1 year. We all know what happened 1 year after the peak, which you claimed you sold at.
Anyways, I hope this taught you a lesson. I was paying attention, and your inconsistent claims stuck out like a sore thumb. In any case, if you’re happy with your fake money, then I’m happy for you.
Um, Fake Estater, where precisely did I say it happened after the peak? How exactly do I make money at the peak if I sold after the peak? I don’t seem to have access to one of those time machines other posters have alluded to. Or maybe whatever ganja you are obviously smoking.
So please, if you could find the post where I indicated I sold “after the peak”, I would be happy to see it.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Bay Area has many advantages, including weather and prestige. Would any self-respecting MD turn down a tenure at Stanford or UCSF? Build it and they will come. I’m a strong beleiver that healthcare will grow rapidly in the coming years.
LMAO again!
How about an MD that instead took a tenure at John Hopkins? Or Harvard medical school?
February 15th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
# Pralay Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
RealEstater,
What exactly mean by this following statement?
“you mean when you exercised the options at the peak, and then held on for another year to save money on taxes?”
If someone got the options in non-peak time and then exercised the options at the peak, how it is a bad idea?
Pralay, I think we are truly beating a dead horse (donkey) here. What it does demonstrate is how 1 dimensional Real Estater’s thinking is. He completely unable to process more than one variable or scenario at any given time. Which does somewhat explain why he is so deluded when it comes to real estate.
Also gives a good indication that he is definitely NOT a developer. I can’t even believe tech support anymore. My guess is he a help desk technician in some IT department somewhere.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Aha, you mean, FakeEstater works on the “HellDesk”?
February 15th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Bay Area has many advantages, including weather and prestige. Would any self-respecting MD turn down a tenure at Stanford or UCSF? Build it and they will come. I’m a strong beleiver that healthcare will grow rapidly in the coming years.
——————
RealEstater,
Sometimes I get appalled by reading your posts. Are we living in same world and talking about the same? California’s problem is that many physicians are leaving the state because of various reasons. High cost of living, instability (many medical groups in California are going out of business/bankrupt), less control over medical decision making, too much litigations, non-payment (too many people uninsured in California). I know it because my friend is a physician in bay area. He was saying that average physician in California earn less per-patient-fee than the national average (I don’t remember the exact number). One small test. Just go to East Coast. You will find physicians graduated from UCSF, UCLA and did residency in California. How many physician do you find in California who did residency in East Coast?
We are in hitech world and we are restricted to Bay Area. There is no Yahoo in Texas. There is no Google in Ohio. There is no Oracle in Colorado. That’s why we are here. But doctors don’t have that restriction. They can move to Texas and pay their mortgage by seeing as little as 20 patients per day.
Yes, the root cause of doctors leaving California is not housing. But it is definitely one of the factors play a role for their decisions.
And, yes, the shortage of doctors is a national problem too. But the situations in big metropolitan areas in others states is not bad as metropolitan areas in California. In other state, the shortage are mainly in rural areas where doctors don’t want to go.
You keep harping about your “management class” neighborhood. I am sure you will find one or two doctors in your neighborhood. Just ask them. You will be enlightened enough.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Malcolm:
You’re seeking support from Pralay? I think he’s still lost about what is the issue at hand here.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Speaking of healthcare, the growth in healthcare feeds the need for IT in the Bay Area. All these places are doing electronic medical records, which require new IT infastructure from the ground up.
————–
And which companies in Bay Area are doing all those so called “IT infastructure” for various medical groups? Any idea?
February 15th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
>>And which companies in Bay Area are doing all those so called “IT infastructure” for various medical groups? Any idea?
Let’s see…where do I start.
HP/IBM to provide blade servers. VMWare to provide virtualization. IBM/Accenture/Deloitte/Perot Systems to provide consulting and implementation services. Cisco to provide networking. Oracle to provide databases. Symantec to provide security. Mckesson and Philips to provide all kinds of medical software and devices. I can go on and on.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
You’re seeking support from Pralay? I think he’s still lost about what is the issue at hand here.
———-
I think the only issue here is there is a donkey in the room (coming from “management class” neighborhood).
February 15th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
>>We are in hitech world and we are restricted to Bay Area.
Are you kidding me? These days hi-tech can be done half way around the world. Most tech companies in the Bay Area have offices all around the country and all over the world.
February 15th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
HP/IBM to provide blade servers. VMWare to provide virtualization. IBM/Accenture/Deloitte/Perot Systems to provide consulting and implementation services. Cisco to provide networking. Oracle to provide databases. Symantec to provide security. Mckesson and Philips to provide all kinds of medical software and devices. I can go on and on.
————-
Ha ha! You mentioned some names where half of them barely exist in bay area. Ok, first of all, why a medical group has to be in Bay Area to get this benefit? Just look at the partnerships with IBM Medical research group. They are all over USA. Philips? That’s long gone from Bay Area (and yes, they have nuclear medicine devision in Milpitas, but nobody knows how long they will continue). And Accenture, Deloitte, Perot? Which one of them in bay area exactly? And big companies like HP and Cisco? If they cannot provide “IT infrastructure” in other parts of USA, there is something really wrong with those guys.
February 15th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Are you kidding me? These days hi-tech can be done half way around the world. Most tech companies in the Bay Area have offices all around the country and all over the world.
———————
Wow! At least we are coming to a common ground. It seems those hi-tech companies are not finding enough incentive to grow in Bay Area. That got to be bad new for your real estate.
Having “an office all around the country” is one thing and having specific types of jobs is another thing.
In fact your above comment contradicts your post #33. Cisco, HP, IBM, Oracle have offices all over the country. Do you know why? Because they provide the services all over the country. And that’s the very reason a medical group does not need to be in Real Bay Area to get “IT infrastructure” get done.
February 15th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Pralay,
>>Philips? That’s long gone from Bay Area
Last I checked. Foster City is still a part of the Bay Area. You can find them here: http://www.isitepacs.medical.philips.com/about/directions.php
>>And Accenture, Deloitte, Perot? Which one of them in bay area exactly?
All of them have billion dollar businesses in the Bay Area. Stanford actually outsourced their IT to Perot Systems.
>>And big companies like HP and Cisco? If they cannot provide “IT infrastructure” in other parts of USA, there is something really wrong with those guys.
Major healthcare providers such as Kaiser run their data centers in California. These are billion dollar investments with on-going yearly budgets in the tens of millions.
February 15th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
>>Are we living in same world and talking about the same? California’s problem is that many physicians are leaving the state because of various reasons.
Not sure which part of my comment is so “appalling”. Did I not say healthcare has a lot of problems? This is like…known by everybody with a high school education. The point I was making was that housing is not the primary driver for these problems. Housing may be a factor, but you can say the same towards every other profession.
At the end of the day, the demand for healthcare is only going to increase here, and that means healthcare is a growing industry. More and more dollars will be spent in the BA on healthcare, and it becomes a very significant part of the economy. None of this is exactly news to anyone.
February 15th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Last I checked. Foster City is still a part of the Bay Area. You can find them here: http://www.isitepacs.medical.philips.com/about/directions.php
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RE,
It does not change the fact that Philips long gone from bay area. They pulled off major development devisions from bay area couple of years back. They have offices in bay area, but that’s just their “presence” in bay area. Nothing more.
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All of them have billion dollar businesses in the Bay Area. Stanford actually outsourced their IT to Perot Systems.
——–
Irrelevant. These are not bay area companies. They are doing to business in bay area – just like they are doing in Chicago, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Orlando or Austin. I don’t know what kind of point you are making out of it.
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Major healthcare providers such as Kaiser run their data centers in California. These are billion dollar investments with on-going yearly budgets in the tens of millions.
———-
Wow! What a news! That’s just the data center for Northern California records. Kaiser has regional data center almost all the high-population states. What makes your Real Bay Area data center so “special”?
February 15th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Not sure which part of my comment is so “appalling”.
——————–
I already quoted the part from your post #23. You were completely ignoring the ground reality (doctors leaving California) and naively thinking that if you build a facility the doctors will start coming to California from other states. Well, lack of facility is not the problem in california. There are enough facilities already there. The problem lies somewhere else (and I mentioned them already).
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Housing may be a factor, but you can say the same towards every other profession.
——–
The real question is incentive. Do they get better incentive by moving out of California? Yes, they do and that’s why they are leaving. And that’s why no doctor want to come to california from other states.
————
At the end of the day, the demand for healthcare is only going to increase here, and that means healthcare is a growing industry.
———-
That’s quite a turnaround from your original argument of “weather and prestige” (post #23). Why are physicians leaving in that case? Got to be too much rain in recent years (weather factor)!
February 15th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
Pralay,
I’ll give you two more healthcare plays. One being Citrix, the other being EMC. Citrix is used in virtually every healthcare organization, because so many healthcare apps are client-server. The demand for storage is exploding in healthcare, because patient records are all going to be stored electronically.
>>Well, lack of facility is not the problem in california.
The statement is just pure ignorence. Bed space is precious commdity at most hospitals; there’s not enough to address current demand, let alone future needs.
February 15th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Guys, let’s be a little respectful to each other and be less serious. Everyone has his opinion. It is difficult to convince each other, especially homeowner has emotional attachment to their precious asset. Let’s have more fun and less argument.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:01 am
Thank you Real Estater for keeping this board alive. But you’re not a troll hired by burbed, are you? Your responses are so fastidious and equanimous, everybody is happy to bite. Great job!
February 16th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Most bloggers in this site are not happy with the inflated housing price. We should keep people with different opinion in this site. Better to hear different voice.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:16 am
RealEstater
At the end of the day, the demand for healthcare is only going to increase here, and that means healthcare is a growing industry. More and more dollars will be spent in the BA on healthcare, and it becomes a very significant part of the economy. None of this is exactly news to anyone.
True. But this holds for the rest of the country as well. In fact as the population gets older, fatter, and exposed to more toxic crap, the need for health care will rise. And there’s nothing special about the BA for doing R&D for healthcare, unless you want to pay exorbitant housing prices for the privilege of being next to Stanford or UCSF.
Healthcare has many problems, including shortage of doctors, nurses, and pharmacists. However, these problems are seen nation-wide, and the root cause is not housing.
My sister in law who is a board-certified OB/GYN got several job offers in the BA and turned them all down because the salary offered was not commensurate with the high cost of housing. She settled in Sacramento where her $ goes a lot further. Granted its a sample of one, but I’m sure others have similar experiences.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:21 am
I’ll give you two more healthcare plays. One being Citrix, the other being EMC. Citrix is used in virtually every healthcare organization, because so many healthcare apps are client-server. The demand for storage is exploding in healthcare, because patient records are all going to be stored electronically.
————–
Again, I don’t know what you are trying to prove by citing these names. Unless you can show that somehow these developments/technology can bring tremendous job growth in bay area, your whole point is moot (unless I am missing the link between all these and Web 2.0).
————
The statement is just pure ignorence. Bed space is precious commdity at most hospitals; there’s not enough to address current demand, let alone future needs.
————
What a moronic statement. Why there is not enough bed space in first place? Did you ever ask yourself? Did YOU not talk about some kind of “shortage” couple of posts back? Equipment? Nurse? Doctors? You got it. So, “lack of bed space” not necessarily means that hospital does not have money to buy some beds made of mental frames (and pillow and blanket and white-sheets). It actually tied to manpower – nurse, doctor etc. Why there is not enough manpower? Go back to post #12 and try to comprehend.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:25 am
I remember a few years ago, several CEOs of big tech companies in Silicon Valley including Cisco Systems, raised the concern that housing price made hiring talents from other area very difficult. In order to hire best people, some big tech companies opened development centers in other part of the country.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Most bloggers in this site are not happy with the inflated housing price. We should keep people with different opinion in this site. Better to hear different voice.
————–
Let’s hope they stay after “Spring bounce”.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Going to back to original topic.
According to David Lereah (in 2006), his argument applies to whole country. But today there is no dispute that boom is busted in most parts of the country. Only a few stronger markets are holding up (not sure how long). Hence, some people are making SIMILAR argument that boom won’t bust in those areas.
Words are same. Only actor and stage are changed.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am
>>True. But this holds for the rest of the country as well. In fact as the population gets older, fatter, and exposed to more toxic crap, the need for health care will rise. And there’s nothing special about the BA for doing R&D for healthcare, unless you want to pay exorbitant housing prices for the privilege of being next to Stanford or UCSF.
The original point was that BA is in the midst of a major expansion of healthcare facilities (unlike other places), and the growth of healthcare helps to boost IT spending as well. All in all, this means more jobs here, more people here, and more demand for housing in the core Bay Area.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Guys,
We’re not here to solve the problems of healthcare. It’s far too complex. However, we should have faith in the capitalist system. Remember there was a time when IT professionals were in severe shortage? What happened then? First they raised the wages. Then they used H1Bs. Finally, they outsourced to India. When there is a demand, there is a way. Similarly, solutions will be found for healthcare. As an example, the frequency of doctor’s visits can be reduced with the help of information technology. Patients can now view their health data online. In the past, it required a doctor’s visit just to view your lab results. No Pralay, the sky is not falling.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I have to back up Praley on a lot of this stuff. Having been in the electronic surplus business I can say:
Companies up to 1980: Designed, R&D’d, and built stuff in the BA
Up to 1990 R&D’d stuff in the BA
Up to 2000, gradual liquidation of R&D depts.
2000 – since, last dregs of R&D dug out of corners and outbuildings etc and liquidated, buildings sold off, etc. Companies only maintain a “presence” which is often just a small office, in the BA. A good example is Varian, a huge company, their “presence” is at Central and Lawrence in Sunnyvale, in that building with the arch-shaped doorways. A few doors down is a guy buying up tech stuff used here in the US and exporting to Korea. He’s probably paying his rent better than Varian is.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
RealEstater Says:
No Pralay, the sky is not falling.
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You love to make straw man arguments (and this is not the first time you are doing so). Do you have a problem of comprehension? Where did you find that I said (or implied) that sky is falling? I was just replying against your FOOLISH OPTIMISM. Making counter argument against foolish optimism does not mean that I am saying sky is falling. Why am I labeling it as “foolish optimism”? Because, in post #23, you just cited two advantage points of bay area (weather and prestige), totally ignoring (and refuting) the ground reality (the disadvantages). There are too many disadvantages in Bay Area and they outweigh the two advantage points you mentioned.
It’s good that you understood that healthcare problem is “far too complex”. And that’s why it cannot be solved by two simple advantage points – weather and prestige. You need more advantage points and that includes affordability of home price.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
>>There are too many disadvantages in Bay Area and they outweigh the two advantage points you mentioned.
Just ask yourself why you’re still here. Obviously, it’s worth it.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Just ask yourself why you’re still here. Obviously, it’s worth it.
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It’s very apparent that you either don’t read or cannot comprehend others’ posts. Sometime that is applicable for a hi-tech engineer may not be applicable for a doctor. I already wrote it in post #30.
February 17th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Whats really amazing about all these comments from renters is that this same thing – houses too expensive for (doctors, professors, etc) has been true for decades. Houses have been unaffordable here for decades. The whole salary structure has changed in 20 years to allow a lot of people to buy here when they couldn’t in the 80s even though the same complaints were happening then (theres much more of a contractor workforce where people get higher take home pay etc). If you are waiting for the bay area to all of the sudden become affordable, forget it!
February 17th, 2008 at 7:32 am
by the way to ex-sunnyvale-renter, the R&D is coming back to the bay area now (I know this, it is my business) – because engineering salaries in INDIA are now over 70K burdened cost! Can you believe it? I can already feel the effects of rank and file engineers being hired again in the valley. A lot more traffic forone thing. I would like to know the appreciation rates for rentals now, my sense is renting is going up but I don’t know how to determine that.
February 17th, 2008 at 8:18 am
My santa clara apt complex raised rent by 15 to 20%
I am considering moving to NYC.
February 17th, 2008 at 9:32 am
I’ve been working in tech industry here in the bay area since 1998, and I completely disagree with those of you claiming that it’s in trouble. The bay area is still the home of most tech startups, just because there is a critical mass of tech expertise here. These new companies have to work in cooperation with others and use the technology of others, and it’s still easiest to do that here. I’m a native of the Boston area, and even though there is a tech hub there, it’s not the same kind of R&D that happens in the bay area, which is why I’m still here.
February 20th, 2008 at 11:51 am
No willowglenner- you are either A. very young B. not a native or C. senile. The idea that homeownership for doctors and others in higher paid professions absurd.
Prices in the bay area have been more expensive than other areas, however they have not been out of reach for doctors or most of the bay area population until 1999, 2000.
When I was growing up in the bay area (in the 80’s) grocery store workers, postal workers, police officers, teachers, garbage men and so on were able to purchase homes easily in nice, safe neighborhoods in the heart of the bay area. Perhaps they didn’t live in Palo Alto (though a few teachers on one income with families did own homes in PA) but they were not relegated to Modesto or have 3 roomates like they do now. So of course doctors had their pick of places to buy in any neighborhood they wanted to live in.
Now, some doctors are opting out of doing their residency in bay area, because they would not be able to make ends meet on their $56,000 salary. Better to stay on the east coast where they own the place they live in, rather than live with 5 other residents and their families in a rented house. Besides, what does SF have to offer (compared to NYC, Boston, Washington DC) except good weather???
February 20th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
>>police officers
Actually they make pretty good money in Mountain View. Six digits.