“The market is actually booming in San Jose and San Francisco”
Vallejo-area housing market improves, prices decline statewide - Vallejo Times Herald
That the local situation differs from what’s going on statewide doesn’t surprise Solano Association of Realtors president Lori Collins.”Each area really represents sort of a microcosm, and different areas behave differently,” Collins said. “The market is actually booming in San Jose and San Francisco, and it’s picking up here, but it’s not crazy here, yet.”Collins and Benicia mortgage broker and City Councilman Alan Schwartzman of Advance Mortgage, said the area has been experiencing increased sales for the past several months. And both said they are cautiously optimistic the trend will continue.“We’re seeing a pickup. There are definitely more buyers. There are multiple offers on properties. We’re starting to get buyer calls we haven’t been getting for months and months,” Collins said.
WOOT! Did you hear? It’s booming here in San Jose and San Francisco! BOOMING.
My god I’m so glad we hit bottom in January and the Spring Bounce is here to stay!
It’s only going up babyyyyyyyyyyy!
(Thanks to TheHousingBubbleBlog for this find.)
March 29th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Unfortunately, it’s true. I have three friends that are/were in the market. One got outbid in the $1M range for a *townhouse* in San Jose, another bid 10% over the asking price in the Mission(!) and was outbid by 15 other people, and a third paid close to $1M for an 800 sq. ft. fixer upper on 1/10th of an acre between SF and SJ.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:15 am
San Jose is looking great.
Inventory up 73%
Median down 14.8%
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/
March 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am
If I were in the market to buy I’d buy the oldest POS I could, because I could get it the cheapest, and gradually restore it. But I think anyone’s a fool to buy now, you can rent for half the price and put the difference in the bank. The bottom’s years away.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:54 am
WOOT! Did you hear? It’s booming here in San Jose and San Francisco! BOOMING.
——————–
One more bullshit from RE industry. Do remember misleading news “Feb sale is up” few days back?
“BOOMING”???? The bad housing market does not mean zero-sale market. There will always be some sales, all though in lower volume and for less price. And there will always be competition for desirable and attractive homes - even in bad housing markets. But showing this best cases, the RE industry is trying to give impression that this is the current market trend. It’s NOT. There is no “BOOMING” here.
Giving similar example, I can show that dot-com industry was BOOMING in 2001.
March 29th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Lionel the reason San Jose shows up like that is because the east side (which has been destroyed due to the subprime debacle) is weighing down the west side. In order for any of this to be meaningful you need to look at zipcodes and as you can see from this info, the good zipcodes are up and the bad ones are down, way down.
http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_8739233
Without subprime loans east san jose whichttp://www.burbed.com/2008/03/29/the-market-is-actually-booming-in-san-jose-and-san-francisco/#comments
“The market is actually booming in San Jose and San Francisco” [Burbed.com]h is 95122 is going to go down a lot lower than where it is now, I think. There are houses in 95122 that sold for 70K in 1999 and went to 450K in 2005. Those are going back from whence they came. But what does that have to do with Willow Glen, 95125? Not a thing, we are up 14.5% y/y and a price per square foot of $539K.
Additionally there is an article on the front page of the Mercury news that this couple spends $1200 per month to commute from Los banos to Silicon valley. These high gas prices are also going to support prices here, because $1200 equates to a 200K mortgage at 6%, and unlike gas and commute costs it is deductible! Plus that $1200 commute also costs the wear and tear on your car, insurance and most important, your time.
I am not a RE shill or anything but sometimes these blogs feature people without common sense.
edit- WOW that question almost killed me but I got through, PWEW
March 29th, 2008 at 11:07 am
sorry for some reason I missed that I had inadvertently copied the title of this post in the middle of my text (in front of the 95122), so its hard to read. Just skip that paragraph, all I was saying was 95122 east side is going to crash without subprime which is what is happening.
March 29th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Ok, this is to all Real Estate bulls out here.
I found two old houses in Santa Clara (95054) on sale, pretty close to each other.
Price: $499,000
4322 DAVIS ST
Santa Clara, CA 95054
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 178 days
Baths: 2 Year Built: 1947
SQ.FT.: 1,240 Lot Size: 6,098 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $402 MLS#: 755404
Status: Active
Last Sale: $570,000 (02/10/2006)
Price: $900,000
4252 BASSETT ST
Santa Clara, CA 95054
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 47 days
Baths: 2.5 Year Built: 1940
SQ.FT.: 1,100 Lot Size: 5,662 sf
$/SQ.FT.: $818 MLS#: 777415
Status: Active
Last Sale: $680,000 (04/28/2004)
Tell me, why is on the market for so many days?
And why would anyone choose over ?
March 29th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
For some reason, my post removed numbers.
I meant the following:
Tell me, why “1″ is on the market for so many days?
And why would anyone choose “2″ over “1″?
March 29th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
those santa clara houses are two-fers where the square footage is broken into 2 places. What these usually are, is a rinky 800 sq ft dink shack that used to have a detached garage. Somewhere along the line somebody made the garage into a dwelling either with or without permits. Now they list the property with the combined square footage, but that is really useless- the REAL usable square footage of the property is whatever is in the main house which for the Davis st house is 800 sq ft. If 499K is the right price for a 800 sq ft 2br/1ba house in santa clara then maybe it will sell. they only lowered the price to 499K for the Davis house 2 weeks ago. Before March 7, this was listed at 599K! AHAHAHA!
The bassett house looks a little different. Also a two-fer, but the houses a little more substantial.
We have a twofer house around the corner from my house in Willow Glen. They are listing it at a low price for the sq footage for willow glen until you find out it is 800 sq ft house with a 400 sq ft remodelled detached garage (which is what most of these are). The person selling the WG house is a developer who thought he would tear down these shacks and put up an executive home and changed his mind when the market fell apart. Thats who owns most of these, people who thought they would tear them down.
March 29th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I love how those real estate types confuse Spring bounce with the actual market trends. The best comparison is monthly sales with year-ago monthly sales, which removes the seasonal component from the data. Yeah, stupid real estate people say “sales are up!” but they never admit they’re down from last March and what’s actually up is inventory, way way way up.
Median price is down 14.8% and inventory up 72% from last year, same time. Does that look “booming” to you?
March 29th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I’m curious to know how the continuing boom is being financed.
I think there’s a plausible argument to be made that as the “bad” zip codes drop in price it may drive the “good” ones even higher. No one wants to catch the falling knife, so the faster the “bad” drop the less likely anyone is to buy, at least initially. Meanwhile the foreclosures are going on and the houses are sitting there empty (renting’s not going to pay the mortgage, as has been proved here many times), so the neighborhood that was formerly perceived as “bad” now looks “awful.” So that creates competition for the “good” zip codes, etc.
PRICED OUT FOREVER, BABY!
March 30th, 2008 at 1:31 am
Renter4,
The three couples I referred to above each have a different source of large down payments. One had bought in SF in the late 1990’s and was trading up having gained significant equity. Another had invested in a bubble market and got out shortly after the peak. The third had tech stock options.
None of these are sustainable but they are also fairly common, so price deflation in the nicer areas may take a lot longer than folks here seem to expect.
March 30th, 2008 at 7:37 am
“I am not a RE shill or anything but sometimes these blogs feature people without common sense.”
I have enough sense to understand that the westside will eventually get hit as hard as the east. I heard the same garbage about Los Angeles when I lived there in the 90’s, how the Westside would never fall, because everyone wants to live there. Well, prices dropped rapidly and significantly. I have a buddy who lost 400K (in 1995 dollars) in a matter of months in Pacific Palisades, which is nicer than any neighborhood in San Jose. All he did was buy the house next door before he sold his own house. He never recovered financially.
March 30th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Shall I say, I told you so? The info given by the amateur types here are plain wrong. The market is extremely healthy. Yes, inventory is up if you go by the numbers, but that’s normal for the time of year when a lot of homes come to the market. Pretty soon you’ll see sales volume ramp up as well, as we saw in February. During the winter months, the biggest problem in the real Bay Area is lack of inventory. Most of the homes offered for sale were either marginal or down right undesirable. That was the primary reason sales were down. Whenever you see sales being held back, that just signals demand is building up. Whatever happened before in Southern Cal is not applicable here. The BA is way more special — take it from someone who’s lived in SCAL.
March 30th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I love how RE keeps on mindlessly parroting the same nonsense about price and sales increases, when I just mentioned above the difference between seasonal increases and actual year over year market trends.
End of the housing cycle, RE. Sit it out and see you in three years.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Fundamentals, a concept foreign to most Realtors. Until fundamentals come back into line, it is not a good time to buy any more than it was a good time to buy tech stocks in late 2000 when the NASDAQ had “bottomed out” at 4500.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Thanks, Name, I appreciate the info.
March 31st, 2008 at 6:16 am
“Whenever you see sales being held back, that just signals demand is building up.”
There’s a fundamental difference between demand and desire. Many people desire million-dollar houses. However, because the phony baloney financing doesn’t exist anymore, most of these people can no longer “purchase” million-dollar houses. As Bill Paxton so eloquently said in Aliens, “Game over, man!” This summer will be something none of us have ever seen before with regards to price declines.
March 31st, 2008 at 6:42 am
“The BA is way more special — take it from someone who’s lived in SCAL.”
San Jose is special? Does anyone really want to live there? I’ve heard of people wanting to move to Seattle, Portland, SF, LA, San Diego, Monterey. Literally, every coastal city has its pluses and minuses, but San Jose? What are the pluses? Not once have I heard of someone truly wanting to move there. Never. It exists solely because of its ties to Silicon Valley. Recession hits, tech dives, that place is toast. There’s nothing else propping it up. Would much rather live in the Palisades or much of the rest of West LA.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:35 am
Pretty soon you’ll see sales volume ramp up as well, as we saw in February.
————-
RE,
“Ramp up”? That’s just seasonal change. How about comparing the number with Feb 2007 and Feb 2006?
March 31st, 2008 at 8:41 am
>>San Jose is special? Does anyone really want to live there?
Ask WillowGlenner about that!
>>It exists solely because of its ties to Silicon Valley.
That’s like saying: NYC only exists because of its ties to finance. Washington DC only exists because of its ties to politics. Every place exists because of ties to something.
March 31st, 2008 at 9:11 am
That’s like saying: NYC only exists because of its ties to finance.
No. It’s not the same thing. New York and DC are fabulous tourist destinations. They’re interesting, dynamic cities. Who the hell has ever gone to San Jose on vacation? Name one. There’s nothing else there but business. DC and New York are overflowing with cultural experiences and a living, vibrant history. If San Jose vaporized tomorrow, would anyone notice? It’s like Winnipeg. I went to go visit family a few years back, and the passport agent asked, “business or pleasure?” When I said pleasure, he looked at me cockeyed.
March 31st, 2008 at 9:34 am
Lionel Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 6:42 am
San Jose is special? Does anyone really want to live there?
Lionel, you’re right. Nobody wants to live here. Those who do live here are morons. They’ve probably never visited anywhere else. They don’t know you can get ethnic cuisine (Panda Express) in Indiana, or buy California white zinfandel in Georgia (except on Sundays). They don’t know that it only rains (really just a drizzle) 9 of the 12 months in Seattle, and the other 3 months are beautiful. They don’t know that the smog in LA makes beautiful sunsets and there’s no traffic after 1am. They spend so much time in SF, Monterey and Tahoe anyway, they should just rent a place in each of those places instead of living in the crappy middle where the jobs are.
March 31st, 2008 at 9:39 am
Lionel,
You comparing San Jose to Winnipeg? Are you kidding me? Does Winnipeg have:
1. Balmy weather year round?
2. Diversity?
3. Different kinds of food, like Pho?
4. Smart people?
Further more:
1. Is it close to any tourist destination like SF?
2. Is it close to any world famous universities?
March 31st, 2008 at 10:39 am
1. Balmy weather year round?
okay, winnipeg does have crappy weather. REALLY REALLY crappy.
2. Diversity?
winnipeg is extremely diverse, lots of asians, native canadians, and asian indians.
3. Different kinds of food, like Pho?
they have every type of cuisine, but i must admit the uncooked vietnamese shrimp rolls I had there sucked bigtime against any thing I can find in San Jose, Oakland, or Southern California. this could be just bad luck however.
4. Smart people?
unfair. i’ve met several extremely bright developers from Manitoba here in the R.B.A, and i wouldn’t be suprised if a large percentage of the top software developers in the bay area are canadian..
plus, the people of winnipeg are some of the nicest people on Earth. imagine the type of place where you could sneeze in public and 3-4 people would respond with a “bless you”. not sure if i’d rather live around a bunch of super-bright *ssholes or semi-bright nice folks. bay area weather is definitely #1 and probably the only thing thats keeping me here, that and my extended family.
March 31st, 2008 at 10:55 am
My husband worked odd jobs from the age of 13 to 19 and saved every penny to finance his dream to come to San Jose, go to school and work in the tech industry. In 1997, at the age of 20 he left Germany and arrived in the south bay. He loves it here. His opportunities here in the valley seem endless, he access to some of the brightest minds in the technology sector.
March 31st, 2008 at 10:55 am
1. Is it close to any tourist destination like SF?
2. Is it close to any world famous universities?
Exactly my point. It’s close to a cool city, Sand Francisco. But San Jose not cool. And how smart are you if you’re paying crazy prices to live in a lame city?
March 31st, 2008 at 10:58 am
Sheesh Lionel you are too much. You throw out more soundbytes than Realestater and they are far less accurate.
The reason real estate is more expensive here than anywhere else is because this is the VC capital of the world. Sure remove the fact that this is the VC capital of the world, and yes prices would go down. Just like if you remove the NY stock exchange from New York, and put it in Kansas City (and change the title from NYSE to KCSE) then Manhattan Real estate would fall. See how silly this is? As far as whether San Jose is a place where people want to live- Sj is not the best of bay area cities, but it is close to many work destinations which is why I am here. Quality of life is a funny thing, a neighbor just moved here from Georgia because they got a much better job, to THEM SJ is a higher quality of life, so, its whatever floats your boat.
March 31st, 2008 at 11:00 am
That’s your perspective Lionel. I met someone from Montreal that thought San Jose was wonderful, he came on vacation and later moved here. Plus, San Jose has heaps of potential. School children in Germany learn about San Jose and the silicon valley, I really doubt that the teachers devote a full unit of information about Winnipeg.
March 31st, 2008 at 11:29 am
Ah, I know why Lionel hates SJ. He must be 16. He doesn’t understand the importance of job availability because he doesn’t work. He doesn’t know you can just drive to SF or Monterey because he doesn’t have a car. He doesn’t know why a good place to raise a family is not a good place for clubbing. Obviously, he doesn’t know a VC from a VJ. The only vacations he’s been on are to Hawaii with his parents.
Am I close, Lionel? How about 20?
March 31st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I was under the impression that the heart of VC-land was Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park and University Avenue in Palo Alto. San Jose just houses the ventures. Wrong?
March 31st, 2008 at 3:01 pm
“Just like if you remove the NY stock exchange from New York, and put it in Kansas City (and change the title from NYSE to KCSE) then Manhattan Real estate would fall.”
Agreed. But people would still want to visit New York, because it’s a fabulous city. As they’d perhaps want to visit Kansas City for the jazz and bbq. Take the stock exchange and move it to San Jose, people would still not want to visit, except for one guy from Montreal apparently.
“School children in Germany learn about San Jose and the silicon valley”
Wow. Impressive. Maybe that’s what they replace that little WWII problem with in the curriculum.
“He must be 16. He doesn’t understand the importance of job availability because he doesn’t work.”
Wow. Such vitriol. I just don’t like San Jose. I like every other city up and down the Pacific coast. And… I’m 41, live in Seattle, love it here, family loves it here, don’t need to drive to another city to enjoy city life. Work plenty hard. Love my work.
“I was under the impression that the heart of VC-land was Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park and University Avenue in Palo Alto.”
I like Menlo Park, brother works there, nice place to visit.
March 31st, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Just remember that you don’t need to go on vacation if you live in the Bay Area!
http://www.burbed.com/2006/05/05/thinking-of-vacation-not-if-you-live-in-silicon-valley/
March 31st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
And FWIW, I once heard Walt Mossberg make the same joke about Champs Elysees and El Camino Real.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:13 pm
I’ve always thought of Seattle as the equivalent of San Jose city wise. Portland, Seattle, San Jose, Denver, Sacramento are the same city to me, only with San Jose you have more access to tech jobs.
You can’t compare San Jose to New York. San Jose certainly isn’t anything like Winnipeg, or Seattle for that matter because of its proximity to San Francisco and the tech industry.
Lionel- that is a low blow to those in Germany. It is a pretty disgusting and bigoted comment.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:49 pm
“Lionel- that is a low blow to those in Germany. It is a pretty disgusting and bigoted comment.”
And well-documented. Germany has actively erased as much of WWII from their school curricula. And what’s your argument exactly? That Germany didn’t foment two world wars, and commit the greatest atrocity in the history of mankind?
And speaking of disgusting comments: Sacramento is the same as Seattle? Holy crap. I have a buddy who just got back from doing a residency there, and goes into convulsions at the mere mention of Sactown.
March 31st, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Wow, all this boosterism is right on the money.
San Jose is such a vibrant and dynamic city, I think it needs a few additions or augmentations of its city cotto (hey, just one is isn’t enough for such a great place).
Here are my top 10:
10. Pretty close to a lot of cool stuff.
9. A minor league city at a Major league price (Go Giants - SJ that is)
8. All the charm of Orange County, but so much closer.
7. A million people can’t be wrong…can they?
6. One of the nicest places you’ll find between Santa Clara and Morgan Hill.
5. If not the heart, than at least the colon of Silicon Valley.
4. A fake egyptian museum and a haunted house never fit so well
3. If you think San Jose is just freeways and strip malls, you might be wrong.
2. Photastic!
1. No, not the one in Costa Rica!!
March 31st, 2008 at 7:37 pm
great job, penshack. I thought of a few more.
San Jose:
ten suburbs in search of a city
Whaddaya get when you cross Hayward with Fremont?
Visit our Mystery Spot, where 280N, 101N, and 680N are all perpendicular!
So many houses, so few jobs
Hey, we got a college too!
More excitement than Milpitas!
Call it home if you can’t afford Campbell.
Some of our zip codes are above the county median!
So special, we renamed El Camino Real to The Alameda!
The foreclosure capital of Santa Clara County!
March 31st, 2008 at 7:39 pm
burbed, how come the ul (unnumbered list) HTML tag displays correctly in preview but not upon posting?
madhaus, actual tech geek
March 31st, 2008 at 8:01 pm
I hosed the CSS. I need to fix that one of these days.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Re: post #35, gotta say San Jose (for better or worse) is really nothing like Seattle, Portland or Denver. They look and feel nothing alike, except possibly the people who like SJ, are very educated. SJ does look a lot like Sacramento and to a lesser extent Phoenix in that it is fairly dry, flat, and with a lot of cement and strip malls. I’m speaking mostly geography wise, but that is first and foremost what gives a city its feel. Seattle is much more green, hilly, water-laden, and less populated. Just feels much, much different than SJ having lived both places. The weather is the one factor SJ definitely has going for it. I personally am not a fan of SJ, but places like Los Gatos, Saratoga, etc. are nice. Unfortunately, their housing prices reflect that.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:06 pm
>people would still want to visit New York, because >it’s a fabulous city
People keep saying stuff like this in the comments. The place is dirty. It stinks of piss. The stockbrokers are really not so terribly pleasant to be around. The beaches are filthy. It’s cold in the winter and mind-bogglingly hot in the summer. You ever been at that one line-changing subway station, three stories down, on a July day? And the rats and the mumbling lunatics that erupt into foul-mouthed shouting at little children every five minutes… ye gods. And the one conviction that every New Yorker shares, no matter what their race or political leanings: IT’S ALL ABOUT THEM.
The only thing NYC has that the Bay Area hasn’t is a really good arts scene. And good museums. But if I had to trade one for the other, I would be quite happy to never see NYC again.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:29 pm
>The place is dirty. It stinks of piss.
>The beaches are filthy
>And the rats and the mumbling lunatics that erupt into foul-mouthed shouting at little children every five minutes… ye gods.
Wait… are you talking about San Francisco or New York?
March 31st, 2008 at 8:30 pm
“In Beverly Hills, the number of mansions for sale is conspicuous. Even a design house built last year has a For sale sign in its drive. The owner Harash is having trouble finding a buyer. Even after drastically lowering the asking price.”
“‘It was 2.4 I think, but it came down to 1.5. Well, for this property and the size and the way they built it, it’s a great prize, but there are so many big houses. You know, Malibu, Beverly Hills, so people have a lot of options for the same price,’ said Harash.”
Beverly Hills is probably not as desirable as San Jose nowadays.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Oops, the source is thehousingbubbleblog.com
March 31st, 2008 at 9:04 pm
8. All the charm of Orange County, but so much closer.
————–
Did you ever try to say it in front of an OCian? I bet you will never try it 2nd time. “Do you guys have Disneyland? Knott’s Berry Firm?” “How about Laguna Beach?” “How about gated communities?”
I don’t find much difference between proud OCians and proud RBAans. Both think they are very special and so different from rest of the California. May be we should have some kind face-off between them to decide who are more special.
The only difference is political - OC is heavily Republican and RBA is heavily Democratic.
March 31st, 2008 at 11:54 pm
>>The only difference is political - OC is heavily Republican and RBA is heavily Democratic.
The other difference is in brain power…although I doubt you can tell.
April 1st, 2008 at 8:09 am
The other difference is in brain power…although I doubt you can tell.
————–
Ha ha! What a surprise! They also think EXACTLY same way. What makes you think that only hitech people have more brain power? There are as many “management class” people Irvine, MV, LG or San Clemente have as PA or Cupertino.
You remind me a guy who just immigrated from India thinks his brain is bigger than average Caucasian people and that’s what makes him “hitech guy” (and superior than average “white” people).
I think this is what called “little knowledge is dangerous”.
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Lionel- Germany may have tried to rewrite history at one time but it certainly isn’t the case anymore, WW2 and the atrocities committed are taught at far more length than what we learn in the US. Your other comment is simply a straw man. I suppose when you don’t have an argument you have to ignorantly attack a group of people and throw up straw men.
Now to get you back on track, you were assigning Winnipeg the same value as San Jose, claiming that no one would want to come to San Jose. I was pointing out that you were underestimating the value of San Jose. People all over the world know San Jose, they want to come to the silicon valley to work. The same can not be said of Winnipeg and outside of a few small circles I am sure that most people on the planet don’t have a clue as to where Winnipeg is.
There is a reason why it costs more to live in the bay area. It is because it is very desirable to a lot of people, many of them have a lot of money.
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:04 am
#49,
Err, really? Rich people want to come to live in San Jose? Here comes the new Beverly Hills!
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Rich re-read I said bay area.
April 4th, 2008 at 5:34 am
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