BubbleTracking features San Jose – oucher
Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking: Guaranteed Appreciation on Darwin Way
1822 Darwin Way, San Jose, CA 95122
–3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,040 sq ft
–05/1996: RE Stud purchased at last bottom for $158,500 (timed the bottom)
–09/2005: RE Stud sold at the peak for $650,000 (timed the peak)
–10/23/2007: knife catcher who listened to Margaret Kelly, buying what he thought was a bargain at $500,000…half a year later…
1769 Darwin Way, San Jose, CA 95122
–3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,040 sq ft
–04/2004: purchased for $455,000
–04/2008: listed for $307,000That’s right, within 6 months we got a neighbor down the street having a fire sale at almost $200,000 less than the half-a-mil purchase price by the sucker that fell for the old “It’s a Perfect Time to Buy” routine. Where’s that Guaranteed Appreciation? Margaret?
Ouchers. According to Burbed reader Madhaus, this is the first time Silicon Valley has been featured on BubbleTracking.
Well, let’s face it… 1769 Darwin Way must have been a complete dump compared to 1822 Darwin Way. That’s the only explanation, and let’s face it – it’s actually kind of possible knowing some of the houses in San Jose! They’re probably making more land right around this house.
But furthermore, this is just more evidence that due to the shakeout, The Real Bay Area is being cleansed of the not-so-special parts. It’s like a purifying colonic.
What this means is that when you say you live in the Real Bay Area, it means you live in some place truly special.
April 12th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Look forward to that price in the 200s, in a year or two.
What to do now? Polish credit and have downpayment ready for 4-5 houses.
April 12th, 2008 at 7:41 am
[...] I pretty regularly revel in watching stuff like this. Probably not very nice of me, but at today’s rates, you’ve got to take your [...]
April 12th, 2008 at 10:51 am
“The Real Bay Area is being cleansed of the not-so-special parts. It’s like a purifying colonic.”
Tsk, tsk, Burbed! You missed the chance to note that this was truly “Darwin’s Way” – of selecting out the less fit.
April 12th, 2008 at 11:01 am
95122 is an east san jose zipcode (Story and King, famous for the low riders years ago) that is bring thrashed along with a few other zipcodes in ESJ. The reason bubble tracker would feature this zipcode is because they are trying to elicit some emotion about the San Jose region in its entirety. Every house in the Story and King area is 200K before its last sale in the bubble period, you don’t have to look hard at all. Here are a few, and these are just LISTING prices, a lot of these will go for less than list.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1423051
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1505655
but what does that have to do with the west side of SJ? Not a thing. Actually my sense is real estate is picking up on the west side. Heres a house that was relisted at HIGHER than the original listing price due to overwhelming demand at the initial list.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1623673
It sold for 70K higher a few years ago, but there is nothing special about this house. In a year or two this will be selling for more than the 2006 price.
April 12th, 2008 at 11:44 am
> Heres a house that was relisted at HIGHER than the original listing price due to overwhelming demand at the initial list.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1623673
<
How about I quote another random house in the same zip code 95118?
They are pretty much similar.
The 2005 sold price was 652K.
The listing price history:
Jan 22, 2008 $665,000
Feb 20, 2008 $655,000
Apr 03, 2008 $540,000
And this is over a _LONG_ time, as opposed to a quick change in price by the owner of the other house (mostly by greed, than demand, IMO).
Do you think there is a big demand in 95118 that is causing the owner to drop the price?
April 12th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
but what does that have to do with the west side of SJ? Not a thing. Actually my sense is real estate is picking up on the west side.
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I understand there are bad area and there are good area in SJ. I don’t understand the logic of this one-way-isolation and the argument behind it. In past, if area-A‘s market and price got affected by area-B‘s market, then why area-B‘s market and price won’t get affected by area-A‘s market in future?
April 12th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
sg, I am not saying 95118 and westside zipcodes are selling for where their peak was. I was only saying that in the past few weeks, some houses have started to sell for more than list. Your example where a house went on the market in Jan 08 and had to drop in price to sell in April, is typical. That Jan08 price was based on prices for that house in 2007, which were higher. But what about something that was priced after the credit crunch, are those still falling or holding and rising? Looks like the latter to me. Still a huge haircut from the peak in 2006 though.
Regarding story and king, I think most have to agree. That area was pumped up by subprime and those people are now back to renters.
April 12th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Pralay, why do you think that in the past, area A’s market was affected by area B’s market? Can you give me an example of when Palo Alto was affected by east san jose, story and king, famous for lowriders? There was never that time. Anymore than the Marina area of SF is not affected by the Tenderloin.
April 12th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Can you give me an example of when Palo Alto was affected by east san jose, story and king, famous for lowriders?
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Do you want to tell me that East Palo Alto home price did not get affected by surrounding area, including Palo Alto?
I never knew that somehow East Palo Alto missed the massive real estate run-up of last 10 years. Hence I am assuming that homes in East Palo Alto are still selling for $200K (1995 price + inflation + moderate appreciation).
April 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I think you know that when people cannot afford home in expensive area, they buy in cheaper area. As a result demand in cheaper area increases and soars up the price in those areas. This is how the market of Morgan Hills got affected by San Jose market.
And opposite it also true. When Morgan Hill market declines and get substantially cheaper, San Jose market would get affected.
April 12th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Eventually, housing price will be affected by the general economy. But it is a slow process. More people will lose their jobs gradually in recession.
April 12th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
WG,
Those two houses in 95118 (one you mentioned, and the one I did) are quite identical in specs (at least to me).
Take a look.
The only difference is, the one I mentioned has been on the market longer.
April 12th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Wow, I got 2 mentions on burbed today. I must be flying through windows!
Yeah, this is a crap area of San Jose, no one is disagreeing. But a decline of 40% is notable no matter where it happens. That’s Irvine-area value loss (follow the excitement of plummeting prices on irvinehousingblog.com. Today’s post features the “Map of Misery” showing what percent of loans in each state, and each region of the state, are option ARMs.
Of all the loans written in ’05 and ’06 in San Jose, 35.2% of them are option ARMs due to reset. How many of those do you think will be refinanced? How many CAN be?
Other rates in California (% of loans that are option ARMS)
Santa Rosa – 37.7%
Sacramento – 25.8%
Salinas – 40.3%
Merced 30.7%
NOTE: San Jose’s rate is higher than known collapseville of Orange County (32.0%) and is equivalent to the worse situation of San Diego (35.2%).
Anyone want to predict the increase in foreclosure rates as these loans reset and the FBs can’t refinance at any price because they’re under water?
Again, good neighborhoods don’t decline as much as bad, but ultimately, their prices go down at the end of a bubble too. And the bubble has popped.
April 12th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
That’s Irvine-area value loss (follow the excitement of plummeting prices on irvinehousingblog.com.
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Oh, that Orange County – another “SPECIAL” area of California! So special that nothing could go wrong there.
And Irvine! That’s even more special. So special that parking a dirty/dusty car could be considered an offense. It’s not surprising that it is one of the safest cities in America.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1718044.php
April 12th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Wow, I got 2 mentions on burbed today.
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But don’t forget that you are still way behind RealEstater. And don’t dream of being ahead of him. It’s simply impossible – just like it is impossible for RBA home price going down.
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I must be flying through windows!
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False, false, false! Only thing fly through the window in bay area is HOME. Not you, it is home, home, home! Haven’t seen “sold” signs on the glass windows of Realtor’s office?
April 12th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
OMG that photo SO reminds me of the cubicle-maze at the beginning of the Dilbert animated TV show.
I’ve noticed something about these BA grid-hoods that I’ve seen in other areas ….. bought by fairly respectable, hardworking, types who either served in WWII or were just a bit too young, maybe served in Korea etc. fairly sold, straight types. Well, 30-40 years elapse and now the old farts are sittin’ back and the places are full of their 30-40-something spoiled kids, swillin’ dope and inviting strange friends in day and night, trading in substances, getting tattoos, racing bikes up and down the street, you name it. Parents worked hard so they don’t want to “deny” their kids anything, so these early-middle-age brats are there for the duration. 4-5-6 druggies (kids and “friends”) can keep a mortgage/taxes paid, so YOU get to live around ‘em if you move to one of these hoods.
You have been warned.
April 12th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Hey Pralay don’t be dissin’ the OC. It has one really cool thing. Mexican bicycle highway. Did I say it loudly enough? Mexican bicycle highway! The Santa Ana river runs diagonally through it, and whether your name is Pancho or Lance, you can really get around on the thing. You can go from the coast to La Mirada, I think all the way into Riverside on it. Just watch out for the gonzo 50-somethings on their tandems and the guy with 2000 cans in huge bags on his bike.
April 14th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I think the west area of San Jose is being hit also. It’s just taking a bit longer to take. WillowGlenner is definitely in denial.
Also the people paying above asking right now obviously have money to burn. They don’t care if the prices are going down, they just want a particular house.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Traditionally different parts of Santa Clara County have affected each other, but over the past two years the county has split dramatically into hot and cold sectors with a thin area in between. The peninsula has been hot from Palo Alto to Cupertino, with even Sunnyvale posting strong numbers. The South County has been predictably hammered due to gas prices, but the North Valley and Almaden also went ice cold.
Don’t take my word for it. Visit creeksiderealty.com and click on the market report link. Richard Calhoun has been tracking the numbers for more than ten years and he supplies data to the Mercury News. As for Willow Glen, the numbers have been mixed. I’ve seen plenty of unrealistic sellers who didn’t get traffic, much less offers, do to absurd pricing. I’ve also seen duplexes (historically a weak sector) sell within a month with multiple offers. As the old saying goes, price is the problem that cures most other problems.
A more interesting thought, for bubble tracking fans, is that Santa Clara County is a year or so behind San Diego and Inland Empire. Right now I’m hearing about 10-15 offers coming in on REO listings. If you read the bubble blog, you’ll see that buyers who picked up REO “bargains” in places like Carlsbad in 2007 are now well under water in 2008. Are we doing better in Santa Clara County, or are we catching up with those falling knives?