Case-Schiller housing index for San Francisco Bay Area
Thanks to madhaus for finding this:
# madhaus Says:
April 29th, 2008 at 5:35 pmCase-Shiller housing index for February is out today. San Francisco metro area single family house index on average is down to 07/2004 level.
Renter: D’oh, I meant to link to that when I saw it on one of the other bubble blogs. Yeah, the index for SF is down to 174. The peak was May 2006.
If you look at the tiered-pricing indices, the story is even more interesting. Here’s the data for the last 12 months in the highest tier (>$756K), March ‘07 thru Feb ‘08. Look at how it’s crashed (the second number is the same index a year before)
Case-Schiller SF Market Index, Highest Tier
2007-8 2006-7Mar 186.05 184.06
Apr 188.19 186.4
May 188.78 188.34
Jun 189.15 189.34
Jul 190.05 189.57
Aug 191.29 189.05
Sep 190.78 188.11
Oct 188.51 187.07
Nov 182.65 185.55
Dec 178.88 182.77
Jan 175.75 182.06
Feb 171.32 182.26Look at Sept-Feb, avery bad fall. And don’t give me Spring Bounce, compare it to the previous year where the index would go up or down a point or two per month.
Remember, the aggregate peak was in May 2006. Well, the higher tier kept going up until August ‘06, then came down, then went up again next Spring Bounce. So why did the aggregate index continue going down? Because the low and middle tiers went down.
Case-Schiller is a great index because they pair sales of the same houses.
For more info look here. They have info on other places, but you have to BUY them.
Thoughts about this data? My first instinct is to wonder what they call the SF market. Does it include places like… Milpitas?
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 am
What does this all mean?
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
As far as I know on the Case Shiller index when they say San Francisco they actually mean the city of San Francisco. So I guess San Francisco is no longer in th RBA
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Oh, nevermind, it’s not just San Francisco. According to this pdf on the shiller site:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf
The San Francisco Metro Statistics area includes:
Alameda County, Contra Costa County, Marin County, San Mateo County, and San Francisco. So Milpitas is not included.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:27 pm
And this isn’t going to help the million-plus market –
The market above 1m had become restrictive in the last few months moving to a fully documented income, 720 minimum FICO playing field for most loan scenarios. Lending to the wealthy seemed stable. Then this weeks major crack in the 2m+ market which we specialize in, we knew another shoe had dropped in the credit meltdown. Granted 1-20m property finance is a niche within the 10 trillion dollar mortgage industry. But, the changes forecast major declines in luxury markets as this further decreases the available pool of buyers and will pressure prices.
Program loan to value limits were cut between 5-10% at most investors. We received dozens of calls from brokers, realtors, and loan officers across the country desperatly searching for 20-25% down financing for their purchases that now require 30-35% down or millions in reserves which most clients don’t have. Programs are available to put 20% down on property up to 6m but they require 1-3m plus in liquid assets beyond the down payment. It will take a few weeks for this meltdown to be seen in asking prices as housing markets move VERY slowly. Not like your gas station that changes prices every afternoon right before you pull up to fill the tank on the weekend.
From http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Lionel,
You’re being over dramatic. In the ultra high end, the buyer wouldn’t come to see you in the first place, because there is no loan at all.
May 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
They’re talking about properties starting at just above 1m. I thought that was the median in the RBA.
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:33 pm
I’ve looked through the Case-Schiller documentation and can’t find a clear definition of the city markets they are tracking. I got the impression they were metro markets, not city only. If $756K is the upper third, it can’t be just SF anyway, the median for SF sales is above that. Clearly it includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties, the question is what else is included, such as Santa Clara (and Milpitas).
On many of the Southern California real estate blogs I follow, this is the index that’s respected (for LA, of course).
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
burbed I was hoping you’d put that data in excel and create a chart. I made one but couldn’t cut n paste to send it to you.
Also here’s my new and improved RBA map, for those of you not following the older threads.
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Case-Shiller housing index for San Francisco refers to SF metro area, including Marin County, San Mateo county and Oakland. Housing price in SF city did not drop that much. I have a graph for C-S SF index, I will email burbed that. Hope he could post it on the web.