New Term for 2009: RSF (Real San Francisco)
First there was Real Bay Area – which is defined as… well… the Real Bay Area. As opposed to the geographic Bay Area which spans 9 counties, 101 cities, and includes places that no one thinks of when you say Bay Area, like Novato, Lafayette, Belvedere, etc. The Real Bay Area is a place where house prices always go up – it is the engine of our nation’s economy – it is a place where smart people go to live.
The Real Bay Area used to include San Francisco… but apparently, it only includes the Real San Francisco:
SFHomeBlog.com – A San Francisco Real Estate Blog: SF is finally ‘officially’ a Buyer’s Market
Despite month’s of negative news regarding real estate, San Francisco has proven amazingly resilient to price decreases (southern neighborhoods such as South of Market not withstanding) that is, until quite recently.
Ouch. Sorry SoMA. You’re now no longer in RSF, and thus no longer in RBA. (Was it a really surprise to any readers here though? After all… how can you compare the boring culture of SoMA to that of Palo Alto and Cupertino?)
Don’t worry – you have the whole year to recuperate!
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:56 am
Don’t knock on SoMA. The housing there is just taking a breather. It will start flying again. BUY NOW or BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!! It really is a desirable area. Just like Palo Alto, Cupertino and Willow Glen.
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:53 am
Thats right. The RSF.
The fortress is getting pretty small – and has mostly retreated to pretty much the areas North of Market/East of Van Ness and Noe (because everyone that works in the valley – even Real Estater – secretly wants to move to Noe).
But hey – when those 4.5% rates come online – it’ll be back to double digit appreciation forever here in the City by the Bay. Buy Now!
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 am
I fail to see how anything but the top 10% of SF can stay in the RBA. A lot of the lower tiers in the SF market are condos and the like. And what use is there in having mortgage if you cannot water your own lawn?
January 3rd, 2009 at 1:01 pm
> And what use is there in having mortgage if you cannot water your own lawn?
Is there any need to water anything in San Francisco? I thought Mother Nature was taking care of that there.
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
>> Is there any need to water anything in San Francisco? I thought Mother Nature was taking care of that there.
Actually, the homeless typically takes care of all the watering needs. Win-win.
January 4th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Belvedere is the realest of the RBA. The entry fee is $2 million minimum, and it’s like Atherton with a bay view.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Belvedere! Retreat to Belvedere! Build the walls higher, and stock up on ammo!
My sister lives in Manhattan – rents on the upper-west side, and has been looking to buy for years – but always telling me that no, Manhattan real estate is still strong, still going up – OK, maybe flattening now in 2008, but certainly not dropping, too much demand, international demand, etc., etc.
Well, last week she tells me it’s cracked. 10% drops LAST week. She can hardly believe it, but it’s like the dam is breaking – the sellers (at least some of them) are capitulating on price, and when the downward trend starts, it’s hard to stop.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:17 am
>>Well, last week she tells me it’s cracked. 10% drops LAST week.
Incredible. 10% drop last week when everyone was out on vacation. Even the NY times failed to detect such event, yet your sister has the inside lead!
January 5th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Incredible. 10% drop last week when everyone was out on vacation. Even the NY times failed to detect such event, yet your sister has the inside lead!
———-
No NYT did not fail. It indeed took the lead.
BTW, “when everyone was out on vacation” it seems lots of Palo Altoan are not (and are busy to list their homes in market). Otherwise how do you explain 94 homes in market when there were only 31 homes in market last years same time.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
>>Prices in New York declined 7.5 percent in October over the same month a year ago.
Useless aggregate data. We’re talking about Manhattan here, not just anywhere in NY.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Pralay says,
>>Otherwise how do you explain 94 homes in market when there were only 31 homes in market last years same time.
With 94 homes available, can’t you afford at least one? How do you explain it?
January 5th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
With 94 homes available, can’t you afford at least one? How do you explain it?
———-
LOL! Anybody wants to “afford” them now when they are going to be lot cheaper in future? And look at our self-proclaimed real estate investor. Even he is not buying and giving tons of excuses.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Pralay,
On what basis do you say PA homes are going to be A LOT cheaper in the future?
I’m giving you one last chance to either clarify or take back your statement. Otherwise, the above will be assumed to be your projection, and we shall refer back to this post “in the future”.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
NY Times had a good article about the Real Estate in Manhattan a few months ago:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/realestate/09cov.html
The article only talks about Manhattan though. No mention on the Bronx, Brooklyn or Queens. (Staten Island might as well be NJ)
Any of you who have a good memory and can be the first to tell me when I’ve said something extremely similar before will get a $1 prize.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
“Otherwise how do you explain 94 homes in market when there were only 31 homes in market last years same time.”
You don’t. You sit back and spew bullshit until everybody forgets what the original issue was.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Lol…on what basis…on what basis…heh.
It’s like RE is living groundhog day over and over and over.
Never mind the tighter lending standards, higher unemployment, lower portfolio values, consumer fear and a huge drop in the low end which forms the basis for the high end valuation…
I want to know what basis! I really can’t figure it out on my own so I’m going to ask some random guy on the internet. Because I am an idiot.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
On what basis do you say PA homes are going to be A LOT cheaper in the future?
——–
Does all the graphs in Altos Research give enough hint (in post #9)? Inventory up, dollar/sq-ft down, median down, MMAI down. Anything sounds optimistic?
January 5th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Pralay, don’t do his work for him. He’s an
“investor”speculator.January 5th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Lol…on what basis…on what basis…heh.
——-
And don’t forget that his statement “high end does not necessarily participate in economic downturns, but it usually participates in recoveries” has enough basis. Can he point out one example of economic downturn when high end did not “perticipate”? Of course he does, because his statement has basis.
Note the word “participate” as if it is by choice – “you know what, we are not going to participate in economic downturn”.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Pralay,
Fair enough. We finally know thatt your position is: Palo Alto homes will be A LOT cheaper in the future.
We’ll do a check point during the Spring buying season to see how you’re doing.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
We’ll do a check point during the Spring buying season to see how you’re doing.
——
January 5th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Correction in #21: Correct link to Spring Bounce.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
BTW, in topic of Spring Bounce. This was last years Spring Bounce report and prediction. We definitely “caught in surprise” when the housing market bounced back and went back to 10% annual appreciation.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
cardinal – you can donate my $1 to burbed.
http://www.burbed.com/2008/11/12/further-proof-that-sunnyvale-now-has-affordable-housing/#comment-31447
Maybe you could toss in a few extra “friends” for that lonely dollar.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Hard to be caught in surprise when property is flying through windows. Good to see you again, Pralay.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
I don’t know about you all, but I was surprised this year.
Who knew that property values would plummet like they did?
January 5th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Best headline of 2009 – and I don’t think it’ll be toppped.
There is No Unicorn that Craps Skittles
aka “why my $1M crapbox will be worth $867M in 100 years!”
LOL
January 5th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
So I got back from my annual trip to Vegas as well and I have a useless anecdote to share. I wouldn’t normally mention this on burbed, but I had an interesting experience.
Two nights ago as I took a cab from where I was staying at the Wynn over to the Eiffel tower restaurant. On the way, the cabbie starts chatting me up. He asks me where I am from. I tell him the bay area. His response: “Oooh – property values are down there too.” I laugh, and say “Yeah, they sure are.” He says “Same with here.” I respond in the affirmative. After a little bit of prodding, it turns out that Mr. Cabbie lives in a townhouse that he paid around half a million for and has another “investment” single family home on the outskirts of town which he said he paid $600k in 2005. So here we have Mr. cabbie driving me around talking about his million dollars in real estate. I’m just smiling and nodding. It was a short trip so by now he’s dropping me off. I wish him well on his real estate ‘investments.’
The thing that I really wonder: How on earth is a cabbie going to pay off over a million dollars in real estate?
Maybe someone smarter than I – like Real Estater – would be so kind as to provide an answer.
BTW, after new years, Vegas was dead compared with last year. When one is a sheep in the middle of the herd, everything seems crowded.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
The thing that I really wonder: How on earth is a cabbie going to pay off over a million dollars in real estate?
——–
Because Paul
WolfowitzRealfowitz said thatwarreal estate would pay for itself.January 5th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
anon,
Looks like everything is in the right place. Ever occur to you why he’s a cabbie in Vegas rather than a techie in Silicon Valley? It doesn’t take a person smarter than you to see the reasons.
If I were you, I wouldn’t compare myself to him. Perhaps you should be asking why you’re a renter outside of a the RBA rather than a homewoner in the RBA? The cabbie doesn’t understand the difference, but hopefully you will.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
nomadic gets the dollar.
And Burbed gets $10, 9 from me, and 1 from nomadic.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Dear Chuckie,
Why do you evade my question and then assume I am comparing myself to a stranger? Further, what makes you think I shouldn’t compare myself to him? I do not understand what you mean that ‘everything is in the right place.’ In fact, everything is in the wrong place. He’s in a great position to default, which further erodes already hurting property values.
Seems a bit odd to me that the millionaire is driving around the bitter renter!
January 5th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
The thing that I really wonder: How on earth is a cabbie going to pay off over a million dollars in real estate?
What makes you think he’s going to pay it off?
To add to your “dead in Vegas” line of thought, it was pretty dead in Palm Springs too. Lots of closed up store fronts and restaurants. I would’ve expected it to be more recession-proof than the average locale. Scottsdale seemed pretty busy, but I didn’t go out much there (trapped by the in-laws).
January 5th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
LOL – “Seems a bit odd to me that the millionaire is driving around the bitter renter!”
(Debt = wealth now, eh? You’re baiting the troll.)
January 5th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
A simple search on Movoto shows that Pralay’s “data” on Palo Alto is wrong. There are currently 73 properties for sale in Palo Alto, out of which only 59 are SFH’s.
Only 23 homes are available in 94301, and out of which only 12 are priced at $2M or below.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
I’ll add to Anon’s anecdotal info. I just got back from a 4 day trip. I went to Reno, Tahoe, and a couple of small towns in the Sierras. First of all, two large casinos, including one we stayed at last time were shut down and clearly vacant.The Fitzgerald’s, which is what you see as you enter Reno was also closed down. Next to it was a large, typical “luxo” loft complex. I didn’t see a single light on in the place. The streets were dead. I also noticed that there were a lot less people gambling. A few years back, it seemed like every single card table was filled. This time fully half of them were empty.
Moving on, we went to several large outdoor recreational stores. Some of these store were gigantic. We saw people there as we perused, but nobody seemed to really be buying anything. A ton of the merchandise was marked down dramatically. Of all the items with the most customers, it seemed like there was a lot of interest in firearms. I saw an awful lot of gun cases being carried down the isles.
Its pretty clear that most of America is hurting.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
More on that note, bob…
I forgot to pack a belt for my suit so I went to Macy’s to pick one up. There was a sale. WTF? A sale in Vegas? Yeah, right – I thought to myself. What’d they do – mark up the ‘retail value’ and keep the actual price the same? Nope. I found myself a reasonable belt for $22.something.
Concern about deflation? LOL! It’s already here.
Of course, Half-wit RE dodges the question and resumes attacking Pralay. Gee, who saw that coming?
January 5th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
” I saw an awful lot of gun cases being carried down the isles.
Its pretty clear that most of America is hurting.”
Hurting? Wait until they start firing the guns!
January 5th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
“LOL – “Seems a bit odd to me that the millionaire is driving around the bitter renter!”
(Debt = wealth now, eh? You’re baiting the troll.)”
Troll? What troll…
January 5th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
anon – I was once driven from the Santa Ana (John Wayne) airport by a cabbie that claimed he owned his own (taxicab) company and made $130k+/year. Another cabbie in San Jose claimed to hold a phD but preferred the flexible schedule and didn’t seem concerned about his take-home income. I can’t tell if these are tall tales, but I do know not to gauge someone’s (financial) worth based on what appears to be his current, full-time job.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Less folks gambling away their hard-earned money in Las Vegas? How’s that a bad thing again?
Oh right, wasting your money away is a sign of a _healthy_ economy! And buying guns a sign of the upcoming apocalypse.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
anon,
Are you not aware that Macy’s ALWAYS has a sale after the new year? Which reminds me, I should be going there to do my annual shopping.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
DT, point taken. And perhaps he makes enough to service both debts.
For the record, my view is that less people gambling is a good thing. In addition, I’m enjoying watching (a bit of) sanity return to our economy.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
“Which reminds me, I should be going there to do my annual shopping.”
Has burbed become your personal notepad? Maybe you want us to remind you in a couple of days?
January 5th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
DreamT,
I mentioned here before that I basically only shop once a year, when things are the cheapest. I totally forgot to do it this year, so it was a good reminder.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
RealEstater – Absolutely fascinating. I’d beg you to expand but unfortunately I have work to do.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
All of those guns being purchased are for the civil war coming up soon.
You guys must have missed the article I posted yesterday.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
DreamT,
Let’s just say that I don’t have much material needs. I actually hate going to malls because I usually don’t care to buy anything.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
A simple search on Movoto shows that Pralay’s “data” on Palo Alto is wrong. There are currently 73 properties for sale in Palo Alto, out of which only 59 are SFH’s.
———
Damn! Altos Research got to be wrong! And our RealEstater proved their 90-day inventory number wrong by his “simple search on Movoto”.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Pralay,
Altos research is not at fault. It’s the stupid guy who doesn’t know how to use the data.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Let’s just say that I don’t have much material needs. I actually hate going to malls because I usually don’t care to buy anything.
——–
And even if our RealEstater goes to mall, he does not do it for “material needs”. He just goes there to observe jam-packed parking lot and get pulse of the real estate market.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Altos research is not at fault. It’s the stupid guy who doesn’t know how to use the data.
—–
Then why are you trying to prove 90-day inventory data wrong by “simple search on Movoto”? Trying to act like stupid?
January 5th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Pralay says,
>>Then why are you trying to prove 90-day inventory data wrong by “simple search on Movoto”? Trying to act like stupid?
If you are a buyer, the only info that is relevant is how many homes are currently on the market for a certain price range. You don’t go research some 90 day inventory.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
If you are a buyer, the only info that is relevant is how many homes are currently on the market for a certain price range. You don’t go research some 90 day inventory.
——-
Irrelevant information in the context of “everyone was out on vacation”.
January 5th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
What??
January 5th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
There is an interesting article out in the Mercury News on what kind of people are buying homes now:
Home sales are up but prices are falling; who’s buying houses?
The article is pretty much in line with with WillowGlenner and I have been posting here:
1. First time buyers are buying (I’ve been urging people like Pralay to take advantage of the opportunity)
2. Invetors are buying. You can be cash flow positive right away.
3. Low end market is hot:
“Literally everything is going for over the price that it’s listed,” she said. “Everyone’s scrambling right now for a house under $400,000. It’s the hottest market.”
January 5th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
here is an interesting article out in the Mercury News on what kind of people are buying homes now:
Home sales are up but prices are falling; who’s buying houses?
———
I guess that’s what referred as “caught in surprise” 7 months back.
January 5th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
I’ve been urging people like Pralay to take advantage of the opportunity
——-
I’ve been urging people like Pralay to
take advantage of the opportunitybe knife-catchers.January 5th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Pralay,
Prices are falling due to the mix of what type of homes are trading hands in the market place. I already explained why the price data is misleading, based on another Mercury news article.
January 5th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Yes. Join the party. Drink the kool aid.
January 5th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Tell me when Willow Glen has dropped by at least 40% from the peak. Then I’ll come over, piss on your grave and pick on your carcasses. Maybe I’ll find a half-decent home then.
That’s only if I can’t afford a nice place in Saratoga or Los Gatos.
January 5th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Yes. Join the party. Drink the kool aid.
———
And rely on San Mateo web designer Jackie Buttice to know exact market condition. Because our Chuckie says so (and he quoted her).
January 5th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
I already explained why the price data is misleading, based on another Mercury news article.
———
Price data is not misleading. It is misleading the way
used car salesmenRE industry people use it. When median price goes up, they say: “See price is going up. Don’t get priced out forever. Buy NOW.”.When median price down, they say: “Don’t look at median price because it just tells mix of what type of homes are trading hands”.
Not long ago Chuckie was bragging about Palo Alto median price. He quoted from Palo Alto Weekly:
I guess when price goes up 4 percent, it is no longer “misleading”.
January 5th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
LOL. I think in RE land, the term ‘explain’ doesn’t have the normal meaning.
RE has never explained anything.
January 5th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
RE #56 – what’s missing? Do you see the problem for anyone NOT in the low end? That is, anyone who might want to move (growing family, job change, etc.) or trade up?
January 5th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Of course not. The fact that there exist more than one buyer are more than enough.
Those are just the people who can buy! Imagine the pent up demand of people who want to buy but can’t!
January 5th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
When median price goes up, Pralay says: “There’s a bubble. Can’t buy a house.”
When median price down, Pralay says: “You’ll catch a falling knife. Can’t buy a house.”
Basically, there is always an excuse for him to not buy a house.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
And, as we all know, there are only 2 situations in the real estate market in the real estate market.
1) Times when prices go up
2) Times when prices go down
There are no peaks, no troughs.
**
Enough of that nonsense. Amused-Lurker makes a good point.
In a rising market, one should buy before they are priced out. In a declining market one should sell before they lose more equity.
Let’s take this to its logical extreme: One should be in a constant state of flux – buying and selling their homes. Don’t bother to move in; unless the market isn’t moving, one should be buying.
Morons.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
huh? Lost me there.
Besides, prices ALWAYS go up in the RBA, so you buy before you’re priced out forever, then stay until you’re dead. Then let your heirs carry on the Prop 13 benefits. Ta da! You “win” the real estate game!
January 5th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Seems like an easy game to me! Just buy.
All I was trying to say above is that there are times in the real estate market other than the rise and fall of a bubble. The period is just long enough that it takes a lot of perspective to see its existence.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
When median price goes up, Pralay says: “There’s a bubble. Can’t buy a house.”
When median price down, Pralay says: “You’ll catch a falling knife. Can’t buy a house.”
———–
First he urges “people like Pralay” to buy home (in post #56). Then he becomes upset that “people like Pralay” are giving “excuses” for not buying home. What a bitter tone!!!! No Chuckie, we are not buying home, because your bitter and upset tone makes us happy.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
1) Times when prices go up
2) Times when prices go down
There are no peaks, no troughs.
——
From the viewpoint of Chuckie and other RE industry people there is no peak indeed. When price goes up, it is supposed to go up FOREVER. However they indeed believe in trough when price goes down. You just need to listen Lawrence Yun or David Lereah who calls/called bottom every month.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Another easy sale in Palo Alto: 561 Hilbar
Listed just before Christmas. Gone pending already. $1.4 million? No problem. Close to 101? No problem, not in Palo Alto. In fact, the house is under priced, and over-bidding is just about guaranteed.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Gone pending already. $1.4 million? No problem. Close to 101? No problem, not in Palo Alto. In fact, the house is under priced, and over-bidding is just about guaranteed.
———-
When our Chuckie shows some properties and make prediction about their sales, we know it is going to be just opposite.
Not long ago he showed this Flicker Way property and predicted it would be sold in “short order”. Well, it did not sell in “short order”. And it did not sell in $1.025M either.
Then he showed a “$2M property”. Well, it is no longer a “$2M property”.
So, anybody here to bet for his statement “over-bidding is just about guaranteed” for this 561 Hilbar home?
January 6th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Pralay says,
>>So, anybody here to bet for his statement “over-bidding is just about guaranteed” for this 561 Hilbar home?
How about you? How much would you like to bet?
January 6th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
So, somewhere between a year and two ago we had a discussion with RealEstater about whether housing or the market constituted a better investment, if you knew what you were doing.
Even though I can afford an RBA house, I view it as shelter, and the current prices in the RBA, or even the fake BA, are too high for someone looking for just a place to live.
So, RealEstater, let’s revisit how we did on our investments. I chose not to buy and I rent a house in Mountain View for a really good price. I don’t want to give away too much about personal finances, but I made a nice profit by shorting lenders and builders two years ago, at the time when people like RE and my dentist were screaming that real estate is the way to go. So, thanks RealEstater, I did the opposite of what house buying fanatics such as yourself said that I should do, I made plenty of money doing it, and I’m completely liquid with my money, it’s a wonderful feeling. How have your houses done?
I’ve been researching the economy for a few years, so I saw this crash coming, and I see it continuing to get worse. Sure, University Ave in PA or Castro St in MTV may not depreciate very much, but the RBA will eventually amount to nothing more that a few blocks, and I’ll happily buy a house just outside the RBA, within 15 minutes walking distance of a nice downtown area for a bargain in the next few years. My personal prediction is that housing will continue to devalue for at least a few more years, and the time to start thinking about buying may be around 2011-2012, assuming the deflation hasn’t turned to inflation, in which case, I might have to buy sooner.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Pralay: Very interesting that the overbuilt 94087 home (I even checked that one out for everyone) is 1. still for sale and 2. had its price reduced. Thanks for following that one up.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Pralay – Movoto shows the Hilbar place as active but Redfin says it’s pending. Considering that and the 12/23/08 list date, I wouldn’t take the bet.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
nomadic says,
>>Pralay – Movoto shows the Hilbar place as active but Redfin says it’s pending. Considering that and the 12/23/08 list date, I wouldn’t take the bet.
Forget about these sites. I passed by this place last night, and it says it’s pending.
How about this:
If the house is overbid by X amount, Pralay donates that amount to Burbed.
If the house sells under list price by X amount, RealEstater donates that amount to Burbed.
Are you up for it, Pralay? I’m just helping you build your confidence.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Sure, RE. You just go donate the amount Flicker went under to start. Let’s see, $1.025 mil minus 985 thou equals… Wow, RE! burbed is gonna just have kittens when you present that check for FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS!
January 6th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
How about you? How much would you like to bet?
Oh that Roger is a laff-riot! Everyone knows betting is illegal!
January 6th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Good news. Rich dad is coming to the Bay Area. The ad says:
Find properties to boost your cash flow.
Use real estate — in any market condition to build wealth.
Overcome fear of failure and manage risk.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
madhaus,
>>Sure, RE. You just go donate the amount Flicker went under to start.
I’ve never heard of a bet where the wager amount is given after the result is known. You are a laff-riot.
>>Everyone knows betting is illegal!
Obviously, you are not part of “everyone”.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Well that Rich Dad guy makes some decent points but the fact is he was a real estate cheerleader, AD NAUSEUM, at the top. He was an icon of the property bubble in the same way Abby Joseph Cohen was a celebrity in the 90s. If he was giving seminars in the bay area you could say you’d be ok with property here remaining so valuable. But he was telling people in places like Macon Georgia to get into RE as an investment, or people in central California locations like Merced. I am the classic RE investor like Robert Kiyasaki and you don’t see me buying at the top, getting into bidding wars what have you.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Oh that Roger is a laff-riot! Everyone knows betting is illegal!
——-
Not only that he would start making up stories about his donations when most likely did nothing.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Are you up for it, Pralay? I’m just helping you build your confidence.
——-
Forget about confidence Chuckie. First you need to establish that you actually have ability to donate. You can make up stories about donations to Red Cross or local library all you want but they are simply not credible. I also can tell (lie, to be precise) that I run orphanage in Africa or India. First you donate some money to burbed to establish your credibility. I did, why not you? After all you are spending 24×7 in burbed.
January 6th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Pralay,
This is too funny. Weren’t you the one who asked for the bet?
January 6th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Pralay,
Whatever happened to your assertion that Palo Alto homes prices will drop significantly?
Are you backing out of it after just one day?
January 6th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
This is real estate, its not day trading. Things take years.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:28 am
Are you backing out of it after just one day?
——
Where did I say that I backed out? Another imagination just like your 24×7 IT infrastructure mega project?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:32 am
This is too funny. Weren’t you the one who asked for the bet?
——
This is indeed funny! Weren’t you the one who was talking about donation to Burbed when you never did a single penny?
January 7th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Pralay,
Let me help you focus:
1. You said Palo Alto homes will drop significantly in value.
2. I showed you a PA house listed at $1.4M, and sold within a couple of weeks. I suggested that there is overbidding.
3. You came out to say “So, anybody here to bet for his statement “over-bidding is just about guaranteed” for this 561 Hilbar home?”
4. I responded to your bet.
What’s the problem? Are you too chicken shit to put money on your own statement? If it’s not “backing out” what is it? The only credibility issue is with yourself! I’d be willing to let Burbed be the host for this transaction. How about each of us put down $500 deposit to Burbed? Loser will need to pay off the remaining amount. Winner gets the money back. It’s absolutely real money, and 100% fool-proof.
You made the claim. You proposed the bet. Be a closer; don’t be a loser.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:17 am
What’s the problem? Let me help you focus.
1. Palo Alto home price will drop significantly. Did you see there is a “will”. And I gave reference to Altos Research graphs. Therefore your example of 1.4 million home sold in two weeks in irrelevant.
2. Read #86 again. When it comes to donation to Burbed you have no credibility. First donate to establish credibility. Come on, why is a prestigious zipcoder with half million equity getting chickened out to donate $5?
January 7th, 2009 at 1:22 am
How about each of us put down $500 deposit to Burbed? Loser will need to pay off the remaining amount.
——
LOL!
Before talking about $500, don’t you think our Chuckie should have atleast $5 credibility. Oh I forgot. This is another margin of error issue.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:11 am
LOL! Did you guys know that pre-qualification is needed to accept Pralay’s offer of bet? Make sure your FICA score is above 800 too!
January 7th, 2009 at 7:33 am
Robert Kiyasaki? The Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy? OMG. The guy is a nut. I find it hard to believe so many people actually believed what he preached.
Let me give you a little lo-down on good ole’ Mr. Kiyasaki. Before he started the Rich Dad enterprise, he ran a company that made velcro wallets which later went bankrupt. He also sold T-shirts. His main claim to fame is writing books- primarily the Rich Dad series and giving seminars.
Additionally, even other real estate investors have questioned his tactics. According to one investor; John T. Reed per Wikipedia:
“much of Kiyosaki’s advice is illegal, makes no sense or is the product of “a rather ignorant, not very bright, novice, investor wannabe”. He concludes his criticism, saying that “Rich Dad, Poor Dad is one of the dumbest financial advice books I have ever read. It contains many factual errors and numerous extremely unlikely accounts of events that supposedly occurred.”
Here’s another quote from Wikipedia:
Kiyosaki wrote a column in Yahoo Finance in which he blames poverty on laziness. He also implies a religious justification for wealth disparity. “Over the years, I’ve met many losers who pray to God to give them gold. God helps those who help themselves. Again, the conquistadors may have been killers and thieves, but at least they knew how to help themselves.”
He also claimed that Pork bellies were traded on the NYMEX.
But the bottom line is that his advice is worthless yet people read and took his suggestions to heart. The man made his money from a publishing enterprise. Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned here, just as Levi Strauss made a fortune from Blue Jeans sold to miners during the gold rush.
Kiyasaki is the classic example of housing bubble mania.
January 7th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Bob,
At least no one would ever accuse you of being lazy. What time did you get up this morning to get to your job in Palo Alto?
January 7th, 2009 at 8:33 am
I always get up early. When I worked as salesman, I had to get up at 6:00 AM. I did that for so long, I just continued to do it. The bonus is leaving for work that early means I get here in 35-40 minutes. But I also leave early, which means less traffic on the way home. Works out well, and according to the people who I work with who live closer and get up later, it sometimes takes them just as long to get here. Its all about time.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:42 am
LOL! Did you guys know that pre-qualification is needed to accept Pralay’s offer of bet? Make sure your FICA score is above 800 too!
——
Still waiting for $5 credibility from a half-million equity guy.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:48 am
>>Still waiting for $5 credibility from a half-million equity guy.
No problem. If I deposite $5 with Burbed, the bet is on?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Bob says,
>>When I worked as salesman,
What do you have against real estate agents if you worked as a salesman?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Robert Kiyasaki? The Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy? OMG. The guy is a nut. I find it hard to believe so many people actually believed what he preached.
——–
That may be true, but someone treats his book as Bible, refers it often and follows him religiously.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:59 am
No problem. If I deposite $5 with Burbed, the bet is on?
——–
Come on! Why is a half million equity guy is hesitating to have $5 credibility?
January 7th, 2009 at 10:03 am
What do you have against real estate agents if you worked as a salesman?
——
OMG! Someone found his soul mate………in the end!
January 7th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Not all salespeople are the same. Some get paid on commissions: RE agents and car salesmen, hence their tendency to be sleazy and try to make whatever crap their selling smell sweet. Some aren’t, like the kind of salesman I was where I got paid the same and mainly helped people find what would work best for them, often times selling the more affordable product.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Not all salespeople are the same. Some get paid on commissions: RE agents and car salesmen, hence their tendency to be sleazy and try to make whatever crap they’re selling smell sweet. Some aren’t, like the kind of salesman I was where I got paid the same and mainly helped people find what would work best for them, often times selling the more affordable product.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Pralay,
You suggested a $5 deposit. You offered the bet. You made the market prediction. Is the bet on or not? Yes or No?
January 7th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Bob says,
>>. Some aren’t, like the kind of salesman I was where I got paid the same and mainly helped people find what would work best for them,
This is getting better. You call yourself a salesman for helping people pick out merchandise at a retail store?
January 7th, 2009 at 10:51 am
I can just see the snarl on RE’s face right now. As he meekly acquiesces with his supervisor on the politically incorrect item of the day and blames some folks based in another country altogether for yet new delays, he is already plotting his next pseudo-elitist, arrogant post on burbed. Just picture his face for a second as he types “What time did you get up this morning to get to your job in Palo Alto?”. Priceless!
January 7th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Intel 4th quarter sales fall 23%.
_WOW_
January 7th, 2009 at 11:07 am
NO RECESSION HERE!!!!
LOL
January 7th, 2009 at 11:18 am
tsk, tsk, anon. That’s normal inventory correction for the tech industry. Just takin’ a breather before the next big rush!
January 7th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Oh. Right. I’m sure spring bounce will correct it.
Or, am I mixing industries now?
January 7th, 2009 at 11:34 am
RE,
I sold earthquake retrofiting equipment and tools as well as high end hardware and exotic lumber. I had to know my stuff or it could cost a homeowner/contractor thousands of dollars or worse- structural failure. So in being a “salesperson”, I had to be accurate and knowledgeable. A RE agent just spews BS about how “wonderful” whatever they’re selling happens to be. Big difference.
Either way, this is a sort of a pointless argument since I haven’t been a salesperson for more than 5 years. That was a different time period for me. Now I’ve moved on. But I have lots of respect for honest salespeople.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:36 am
The fact that the market is down as much as it is in “anticipation” of Friday’s jobs report( expected to be BAD) is a bit… foreboding.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:39 am
DNFTT
January 7th, 2009 at 11:41 am
ADP says the country lost 693,000 private sector jobs in December:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/adp-data-show-693000-private-sector/story.aspx?guid={11A2598F-2D9D-48D2-A934-144BA5E1BB9C}&dist=msr_7
January 7th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Stupid link. Try this one:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSWEN227520090107
January 7th, 2009 at 11:57 am
“The fact that the market is down as much as it is in “anticipation” of Friday’s jobs report( expected to be BAD) is a bit… foreboding.”
I’ll tell you what bobert, despite people expecting it to be bad, it will be “worse than anticipated.”
January 7th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
You suggested a $5 deposit.
——-
January 7th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Intel 4th quarter sales fall 23%.
NO RECESSION HERE!!!!
———–
When 23% Q-sale falls, it not due to recession. It’s due to their strategy. Don’t you know that Silicon Valley is “nearly recession-proof area” and there’s still a mandatory 5 minute line to get latte in the morning?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
… Or it could go the other way, and instead of losing 693,000 jobs, the report could show that we really only lost 692,000 jobs… which would be “better than expected!” yipee!!
January 7th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Dear bobert east bay resident extrodinaire,
Not a chance.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
ADP says the country lost 693,000 private sector jobs in December:
——–
Useless aggregate data. “There’s no recession, no layoffs, no downturn” in Silicon Valley.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Anon’s guide to “how the powers that be operate”
State expectation of recovery ->
Underestimate expected losses, overestimate expected gains->
Await report ->
Feign surprise when losses are higher than underestimation ->
Call bottom ->
state expectation of recovery ->
Underestimate expected losses, overestimate expected gains->
…
Keeping the sheep in a constant state of hope for the future helps the market grow and cushion losses. Half witted zombies like RE put great faith in “powerful people in Washingon” and buy depreciating assets or they keep their money in the market when things are bad.
The strategy works quite well as long as you have enough people with a lack of independant reasoning ability.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
anon,
You sound bitter. You need RE to help you turn that frown upside down. C’mon, that useless aggregate data hasn’t meant a thing in Silicon Valley. So Intel sales are down? So what. Just keep watching the Dow soar; just about any day now!
January 7th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Besides, I’d bet most of Intel’s employees aren’t even in the bay area anymore. We don’t need them!
The strategy works quite well as long as you have enough people with a lack of independent reasoning ability.
Sounds like the Ponzi scheme our economy has become.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Sounds like the Ponzi scheme our economy has become.
Hey, I know who we can get to manage all those home sales from the departing Intel employees! Some dude in NY, really knows his stuff. Madden, Madon, something like that. Bernard something. I bet he can spell “light and bright” correctly, too!