January 30, 2009

$950 per sqft fixer upper in Los Gatos

16561 ENGLEWOOD Ave, Los Gatos, CA 95032 | MLS# 80815390
16561 ENGLEWOOD Ave Los Gatos, CA 95032
Price: $1,150,000

1863624814_16561
Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 1,210
$/Sq. Ft.: $950
Lot Size: 7,583 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Style: Traditional
Year Built: 1946
Stories: 1
View: Neighborhood
Neighborhood: Los Gatos/Monte Sereno
County: Santa Clara
MLS#: 80815390
Source: MLSListings
Status: Active
On Redfin: 225 days
Unsold in 90 days
Fixer-upper
Contractor special in Downtown Los Gatos! Value in the land–fabulous opportunity within walking distance to LG Schools. Build new or major remodel your dream home in unincorporated Los Gatos. Survey available. Call Doug Perry for further details.

Here’s what Burbed commenter nomadic had to say:

This house is what the RBA is all about.  It’s a tiny fixer-upper on a small-ish 7,583 sf lot.  And they still want $950/sf for it!  They say the value is in the land because it’s walking distance to Los Gatos.  Does 1.5 miles really count as walking distance?  That’s a long way if you have a couple too many glasses of wine with dinner.

All true – but more importantly, let’s take a look at the garage:

1508468206_16561a

Hey – at least its not a snout house! A standalone garage really helps this house stand out!

Comments (150) -- Posted by: burbed @ 5:50 am

150 Responses to “$950 per sqft fixer upper in Los Gatos”

  1. sonarrat Says:

    This is really, really, really not in the right location to be commanding that kind of price. I have the feeling this house will still be rotting on the market in 5 years after the rest of us have adapted to the new barter system and learned to speak Chinese.

  2. rick Says:

    I love the over sized windows, burbed forgot to mention that this is an environmental friendly house, no lighting needed during the day.

  3. Prof. Bleen Says:

    The roofs of both house and garage look like a month-old slice of bread. When they built this house, they threw away the mold!…but most of it grew back.

  4. nomadic Says:

    But check out the history on this baby! Some dolt bought it last May for $1,040,000 (not a bank repo) thinking they could do a quick flip.

  5. Herve Says:

    Even worse, it was bought on May 21 and listed on June 14. It still took 3 weeks for the new owner to realize it was a POS.

    By the way, does anyone know what happened to 304 Nicholson?

  6. Herve Says:

    Q4 GDP down 3.8 percent, biggest drop since 1982.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Q4-GDP-down-38-percent-rb-14206356.html

  7. BuyersAreIdiots Says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Freddie-Mac-to-rent-apf-14209112.html

    Hey, Freddie Mac will be renting foreclosed properties now! Sweet!

    That should have some nice downward pressure on rental prices. Instead of flooding the market with a glut of inventory, we instead flood it with a glut of rentals!

    Of course, this will only give people more incentive to continue to rent instead of tossing their hard earned money towards some overvalued POS.

    Ah, the joys of the stress free renters lifestyle….

  8. Unreal_Alex Says:

    Take a zero off of the price, and I’ll take it, I like fixer-uppers and am sure I can make enough to stay in it as a dishwasher and off-hours street musicians on the lovely streets of Los Gatos. That garage can hold chickens (eggs and meat) and the lawn will become Victory gardens. Life at its best!

  9. nomadic Says:

    But Herve! That beat expectations! Things aren’t actually as bad as they thought. :-)

    Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP contracting 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

  10. anon Says:

    Plus, it was better than a 100% contraction.

    Remember, nomadick: as bad as things get they could still be worse!

  11. A. Lewis Says:

    That sale in May for $1.04M – that is approximately the peak of the RBA real estate cycle. How on earth people with that kind of money could be blind to the realities of economics and still believe in 10%+/yr on a property like this that far into 2008.

    This is the kind of sale that was always included in everybody’s comps, included in average and median calculations, and other useless aggregate data, and makes halfway-decent, or downright-nice properties go for even more insane prices. (Well, if that TEAR-DOWN is going for $1M, my place is worth $3M!!).

    When you price on hype instead of value, you get…the RBA.

    The inability of buyers to ignore inappropriate comps has always been a mystery to me (how seriously are you going to take a $1M+ purchase? You probably spent more time getting a good deal on your Sub-Zero fridge…)

    The unwillingness of appraisers to ignore them has always seemed criminal to me.

    The ‘economic realities’ I always cite are not really going to determine the market prices (though they are fundamental forces to be reckoned with), it is, in the end, going to be the people making the buying decisions.

    And word has gotten out that no city is truly safe from price drops, that things really are that bad in the economy, and that the RBA prices are really that high, and there’s no more guarantee of making a ton of money through ‘natural’ appreciation.

    Rich people do not want to be suckers, and they’re looking around at their peers and coming to their senses – they want to be the ones who waited for the bubble to burst and got a great home at a great price, while their crazy friends bid-up a tear-down (in a nice location) to 15% over-asking, set a new comp in late 2008, and are now way underwater as they try to finance a $500k (or $900k?) construction project…

    Hey, at least they should get cheaper contractor prices.

    The rest of the not-so-rich, or not-rich-at-all population deals with the harsh realities of economics in a much more clear cut fashion: they buy (or rent) what they can afford, and the market meets them at that price point.

    There’s nothing strange or bubblish about $5M or $10M mansions existing for the very rich. The strange thing was how that market got so clearly connected down the rungs to ordinary 3BD (or 2BD) SFH in boring non-Aspen-like neighborhoods.

    In normal economies, you don’t figure on moving up from a $500k home to a $1.5M home in 3 years without something like a MAJOR CAREER change, or an inheritance. During the bubble, people bought creative financing pitches and thought it was just the American Dream come true.

    Too bad they weren’t a bit better at math. Americans have been trying to swindle other Americans who weren’t as good at math since the country came into existence.

    Anyone one with a little knowledge of the history of commerce easily saw and avoided this bubble.

    And that’s why I want the #1 federal and state budget priorities to be education – so we don’t have to painfully relearn these lessons so often. It makes for a very inefficient economy to have all these boom/bust cycles, and to let so many ‘cheaters’ take so much productive capital out of the hands of the ‘normals’, and busy the ‘cheater-detectors’ so much they can’t get to other ‘cheaters’, or contribute more productively instead.

    Or just relax and enjoy life instead of hunting for a job in a terrible recession, etc.

    That’s my goal anyways – the most joy for the most people possible.

  12. nomadic Says:

    damn straight, anon! And 90.6% of Californians still have jobs.

    Nice dissertation, A. Lot of good sense in there.

  13. nomadic Says:

    I just have to ask. A, are you rather loquacious in person too?

  14. burbed Says:

    And that’s why I want the #1 federal and state budget priorities to be education – so we don’t have to painfully relearn these lessons so often.

    Most of Madoff’s investors were pretty well educated…

  15. unearthly Says:

    Fortress Los Gatos: 105 Madera Ct, Los Gatos, CA 95032

    Purchased in 2004 for $2,089,000
    For sale in 2009 for $2,199,000

    1st Mortgage is Variable Rate @ $1,462,300
    Refi’s add another $200k and $300k

    How many people have the requisite cash for 20% down ($400k)? This one will get interesting…

  16. anon Says:

    I like this quote: “Rich people do not want to be suckers…”

    As opposed to poor people who want to be … ? ;)

  17. unearthly Says:

    Corrected link to 105 Madera Ct, Los Gatos, CA 95032

  18. cardinal2007 Says:

    That house looks nice, but it is really underperforming, it sold for 849k in 1988, it should be at least 3.39M by now, 849*2*2 = 3396 but it is listed at 2.19M instead.

    Underperforming area of Los Gatos, you buy there, and 20 years later, trading the house for other property in the Bay Area gets you on average 2/3 of what it did in 1988, I would be careful of such a neighborhood.

  19. nomadic Says:

    The problem with that ‘hood is it’s on top of the hill (great for the view) but a PITA to access. It also has Campbell Union schools instead of LG.

    That’s just down the street from Woz’s old house (the short sale that’s been pending for a long time):
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Gatos/300-SANTA-ROSA-Dr-95032/home/1447248

  20. nomadic Says:

    unearthly – you’re saying someone is paying on $1.7M in loans on that place??? Insane.

  21. unearthly Says:

    Uh, there was a housing bubble in between the 1988 and 1996 resales, hence the value went up only 20k. 1996 was the start of a double bubble (Internet followed by cheap credit). From 1996 to 2004 there was a huge run up of almost 12% per year compounded.

    I have no intention of buying this place but I bet the I/O ARM is about to become a compressed P&I loan and a re-fi with almost 100% LTV will be impossible.

  22. unearthly Says:

    @ Nomadic

    Looks like $1.45M ARM + another $500k cash out

  23. nomadic Says:

    ooh, another one in the area of Madera:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Gatos/431-SANTA-ROSA-Dr-95032/home/1447246

    This one was on the market for a long time a couple of years ago. Guess it didn’t sell after all.

  24. BuyersAreIdiots Says:

    Anyone one with a little knowledge of the history of commerce easily saw and avoided this bubble.

    Sadly, this is essentially true which is why I place a large majority of the blame on Sir “Easy Al” Greenspan.

    This rubbish espoused by the Fed regarding the fact that they were ‘unaware’ of the severity of the credit bubble is the biggest cop-out in the history of the world.

    You don’t need omnipresence to be able to discern that flooding a market with liquid capital AND keeping interest rates low simultaneously is not going to invite some level of speculation and credit expansion. This was blatantly obvious for those that bothered to spend even one iota of their time examining the situation and realizing the complete lack of fundamentals driving the current expansion.

    Couple this with a totally deregulated market and a dipshit in charge of the country and you get the situation we are in now.

  25. Pralay Says:

    But check out the history on this baby! Some dolt bought it last May for $1,040,000 (not a bank repo) thinking they could do a quick flip.
    —–

    And check timestamps (May 20) on some of the pictures. The buyer was getting ready to flip it even before buying it.

  26. unearthly Says:

    @ nomadic

    Tax assessed at $2.6M in 2008 which means a substantial model/addition since their tax basis would be much lower due to Prop-13 distortions. Still though $3000/month in property taxes is nothing to sneeze at.

  27. nomadic Says:

    Awesome catch, Pralay. Earlier this morning I was wondering if the Realtor bought it for his own flip, but PropertyShark tells me that’s not the case.

  28. nomadic Says:

    unearthly, you mean 431 Santa Rosa? Yes, big assessment for sure. I don’t go by that place all the time but I never saw any exterior construction where they would’ve added square footage. Maybe the whole interior has been redone recently. Still odd that it was for sale a long time, taken off (maybe rented for a year or the remodel done) and now relisted.

  29. A. Lewis Says:

    Hmmm – looking down on what I wrote…it’s a doozy…sorry – 2nd dissertation of the day coming:

    #13 nomadic – yes, ohhhhh yes. My remaining friends are the ones who find it an endearing idiosyncrasy, and who also know how to cut me off and shut me up.

    #14 burbed – no, educating folks won’t make a perfect world, but those folks were just caught up in the greed and believed they were in a ‘special’ class unto themselves with access to Madoff. You know, the belief that you’ve found the magic way around hard work…so there’s always going to be SOME suckers, but I think the education thing can minimize the suckers.

    You’re making my case for me – if this is the state of the educated class, we have some better teaching to do – if the MBA programs are pushing out all the people who participated in this mess, we can do better at teaching finance (and ETHICS). We may have been too interested in some subjects at the expense of studying history…and I know you aren’t arguing that an extra dose of ignorance would have helped…it would only make more suckers.

    I will go ahead and say I think the seeds of this crisis were sown in the 80′s – when lots of corporate-short-term-thinking was born and money-worship was in high style. And in some cases folks of this religion did make money, especially when they could exploit a loophole, or find a new batch of suckers. Whenever these types (usually with fairly large piles of capital to start with) were thwarted or setback in their attempts to multiply their wealth by 10 in a year (think Gordon Gecko, OK?), they didn’t learn their lesson and become modest – they just kept looking for new ways to do the same thing: get rich quick. And sometimes they brought a lot of people along for the ride for a year, or greased enough political wheels to become (or stay) entrenched, and they represented a very tempting dream to the rest of us, and they weren’t rooted out and cast down as cheaters – they just hung around doing their thing and they were here in 2006 and raking it in big time on Wall St. and elsewhere on the Real Estate market.

    They were the first to jump in and do creative financing on RMBS, and pressure the Fed to keep everything their way, etc….a lot of the rest (think incredible growth in the Realtor occupation in CA from ’02-’07) which just wannabes with less initiative who got on board a little later (though they’re still ‘cheaters’ – ’cause they believed in get rich quick).

    If more people in the country, and around the world, had stepped back to objectively look at real estate, they should have said, “well, it’s been a nice ride, but this just can’t go on – you can’t make money from nothing forever”, we’d have been a lot better off.

    The people should have just A) refused to buy at the higher prices each year, B) not invested in a Mortgage-Backed Security for a 10% ROI, when it was so risky it needed a 20% or 30% yield.

    It’s OK if people want to speculate wildly in real estate with their own money, but when you get a bank involved, the damned bank should do the math and charge appropriate interest rates to cover the risk – REGARDLESS of what the damned FED fund rate is. I do lay blame on Greenspan, but plenty on every other party to every damned transaction. In ’04, ’05, OK, you’re maybe in a growth sector, lucky you, but by ’06 and ’07, your underwriters have got to start putting their foot down in the CFO’s office and saying “this company will NOT finance another $1B of real estate without an interest rate of 20%, b/c what goes up must come down or at least go flat for a while”.

    If all the returns were high enough, all the balance sheets on the banks would be OK in spite of a higher foreclosure rate. If the credit default swaps had put in a realistic risk valuation, the insurance against the financials collapsing would have been so expensive no one would buy it – and with no insurance, rates go up to cover the risk! And there aren’t 100 counter-parties now afraid of failure b/c they didn’t risk their capital in that deal at all.

    Voila, no credit crisis, thank you very much!

    And most importantly, high interest rates on Mortgages would reduce demand and prices and keep things sane. And plenty of mortgages just wouldn’t get written b/c it was a bad deal – for both parties. You can have a certain foreclosure rate and not have big price drops – and then you don’t get the follow on wave of underwater people. And a whole lot of other crap doesn’t happen, either.

    Then when prices settle down, you can lower interest rates to a sustainable level…it’s not a crazy alternate, impossible Universe I’m suggesting, it’s a pretty normal looking one where people and banks expect normal ROI.

    The fixes were easy – just too much greed out there. And all the incentives were for keeping the bubble going just ONE MORE DAY. All the money made off transactions regardless of long-term outcome…there’s your moral hazard. A lot of underwriters need to be fired to inspire the next generation to do their jobs next time.

    It’s a matter of personal integrity to be able to step back and not be greedy when you have the opportunity. At least the moral hazard wasn’t an issue for those people who lost money to Madoff – they’ve learned their lesson for damned sure.

    #16 anon – I didn’t mean ‘as opposed to poor people’, I meant it more like ‘just like anyone else, rich people don’t want to be suckers, either’, b/c I think there are some on this blog who think of the rich ‘professional’ as prey whose desires’ for that sweet SFH in Palo Alto obliterate all sense with no limits. That’s the mindset that supports the ‘unending’ demand for SFH in RBA – it’s SO valuable people would pay ANY price for it…

    So I just meant, as a segment of society they don’t somehow endemically enjoy the sucker role of being last to figure out there is a housing bubble. And really, I should’ve written: “Like anyone else, they don’t want to be suckers, but unlike the poor, or the working-two jobs with a medical condition middle class, they HAVE the spare time and resources to educate themselves with detailed local knowledge of the history and fundamentals of their real estate market, to sit back (b/c they’re not under pressure) and judge whether this real estate agent or mortgage broker is full of s*it or not. To calmly think, “Do I really want to make this deal, when it’s only a good deal assuming the last 4 year’s history of price appreciation continues…indefinitely?”.

    They have access to and ability to open a mortgage calculator spreadsheet in Excel, and run a few numbers, to estimate risk, and to judge value…

    Rich folks have all the advantages, as usual, and I promise you, they will not, as a class, continue to support the housing bubble all by themselves forever, just to benefit the real estate agents.

    And look, our attention is captured by the train wrecks of people (even rich, well-educated ones) who fall for Ponzi schemes, but don’t forget the smart ones who didn’t. They don’t get much press, but they’re out there. Plenty of people thought it was a bubble, though maybe they were confused and shaken as it marched up as high as it did – how could they be wrong for so long? Oh wait, they weren’t wrong…

    Some of them are pontificating on this very blog…some of them are in the best financial shape of their lives, have no debt and no risk of going underwater, and they’re just planning to keep working hard and slowly building value with no get rich quick schemes.

    Go listen to Warren Buffett sometime – he has a fine sense of history, he very well understands that get rich quick is a load of crap, he never touched Mortgage Backed Securities, and he understands value better than almost anyone else. He laughs at people who think stock in his company will outperform this or that index, b/c he knows you can’t price his stock at infinity and find a buyer. Longterm, you will only make a modest return on Berkshire-Hathaway, and he knows it. He just plans on making that return and banking it, not pissing it away on some Ponzi scheme. He owns many non-exciting businesses with solid cash flow and no cheating. They may not grow faster than inflation, but they make a positive return, and he’d rather be the one collecting the profit than chasing a phantom one elsewhere…

    In the end, I plan to become a homeowner, and if I’m lucky, maybe a multiple property owner, b/c considering all things, I think it’s a good idea – but only at a good entry price. There’s no sneaky, cheating way around it – at a certain price, Real Estate is a good value for the money. Above that, nope.

  30. BuyersAreIdiots Says:

    A Lewis:

    Nice rant. A good synopsis.

    One thing to add to your statement:

    You did mention that the banks should have exercised better due diligence. But therein lied the rub. Because these loans were being wrapped up and bartered off into the broader market as derivatives, they felt no level of fiscal responsibility.
    “Hell, Moody’s and S & P gave it a Triple A rating, so everything is all good!”

    Unfortunately, what goes around truly did come around as these same banks ended up buying many of these instruments because of the supposed rate of return they would garner from their ‘investments’.

    Seeing this now, I chuckle by drawing an analogy to Wile E. Coyote from Looney Tunes; making an elaborate contraption designed to catch the Road Runner. And in the end, falling victim to his own device!

    Makes me think that Citigroup’s new logo should be a tiny sign that says “Yipes!”.

  31. A. Lewis Says:

    OK, so the bank just wants to hand off a pile of RMBS which out to be priced at 20% risk levels, but it’s an 10% instead. There are additional dorks with calculators at the investment firm considering buying this RMBS object, and THEY should do the math, and say, “Um, no, my friendly bank friend, you have over-priced your steaming gob of goo. You haven’t even considered a modest uptick in foreclosure rates, or a flattening of home prices. I’ll pay you 30 cents on the dollar up front to take that off your hands, b/c I think it’s worth 35 cents. There’s way too much risk in your 10%/yr forever assumption.”

    If they did that, the first big batch would be priced right, no bad investments would be made (encouraging the next round to be more brazen and laden with under-risked subprime), and the bank would take a big hit in profits for the quarter, and they would smack their underwriters on the hand, who would raise interest rates on risky loans (or not write them, b/c who’s going to buy that crap?), and then smack the appraisers in the head and say “how on earth are you going to promise me that home has increased 60% over 3 years – did they find a river of gold on the property? I don’t think so. Value it again, but this time with some fundamentals in mind (like rents, incomes, CPI for the area), and be damned the number the real estate agent or seller wants to see.” And then, if the seller wants to sell for way over appraisal, and they have some wacky buyer with good credit still interested…fine, charge a high enough rate for the risk and let them have their fun.

    It’s just banking – it’s not rocket science.

  32. A. Lewis Says:

    Sorry about the typos: “out” = “ought”, “an” = “at”, etc. Forgot to proofread that one. It was just so short I thought it was probably fine :-)

  33. madhaus Says:

    Holy unabridged dictionary, A, you aren’t much acquainted with my friends Terse and Concise, are you?

    As to the credit default swaps, I posted a rather long article on same maybe a month ago by Michael Lewis. None of those people even considered the possibility that housing prices could ever go down. They took piles of crap mortgages and mixed them up and called them AAA anyway! And why not? If the ratings agencies didn’t call them AAA, they wouldn’t be hired next time, and everyone was piling on the gravy train.

    As to the other rants today, I have an easy and simple lesson for all of you:

    Don’t Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford!

  34. madhaus Says:

    Today’s house’s garage has Web 3.0 potential. Pass it on.

  35. Justin Sane Says:

    Can somebody explain how this house can be in “downtown” and “unincorporated los gatos” at the same time?

    Did the city of Los Gatos forget to incorporate its own downtown?

  36. WillowGlenner Says:

    cardinal, unearthly etc. Regarding the Los Gatos house, I think the underperformance is the mountain/foothill/canyon issue that we have discussed here. “In town” homes in neighborhoods started to outperform in the 90s and stayed that way. The whole mountainous/seclusion angle lost its luster. This is not in the mountains, but I’ll bet the in town areas of LG and Saratoga outperformed.

  37. DreamT Says:

    madhaus – Hilarious:)

  38. DreamT Says:

    A. – I can’t wait for the Cliff Notes’ version of “A quick summary of A. Lewis – Abridged”

  39. Pralay Says:

    More good news:

    1. #%%#%)*(*(&(&^%^*&(**&*(*(&*((*879
    2. ##@(&(*()((&)((HU(^&&%*&&&&&

    Here comes Spring Bounce. Buy your home before overbidding starts.

  40. madhaus Says:

    Dow’s hoarse!

    And how about the fine folks at NEC!
    Wow, they are laying off one worker for every one of A Lewis‘s words today.

  41. Herve Says:

    From madhaus’ link:

    > Some market watchers believe that’s a bad omen for the rest of the year, as the market usually ends a year down after having fallen in January.

    As a proof, I offer this picture from the Nasdaq today.

  42. madhaus Says:

    Herve, I’m still waiting for your secretary to bring that brie. I think I asked a week ago, too. Maybe it’s time to hire a professional.

  43. Real Estater Says:

    Herve says,
    >>Q4 GDP down 3.8 percent, biggest drop since 1982.

    You do realize that analysts were expecting 5.4% decline? I’m not saying the economic picture is pretty, but hype is always larger than the reality.

    Fortunately, somebody is making money.

  44. DreamT Says:

    “hype is always larger than the reality.”
    By definition, yes. Let’s look at what “hype” means:
    * Exaggerated or extravagant claim
    * advertising or promotional ploy
    * something deliberately misleading; a deception
    * extravagant, inflated, or misleading claim
    So it would seem that, in hindsight, if reality was larger than hype, it was not hype. CQFD.
    Others have been called “moron” for stating intrinsically true phrases, but you get a free pass.

  45. anon Says:

    Yep. Those are the only true statements real estater ever makes. Mr. Tautology.

  46. Herve Says:

    > You do realize that analysts were expecting 5.4% decline?

    Yes.

  47. Real Estater Says:

    OK, if everyone agrees, it’s all good. No controversy here.

  48. madhaus Says:

    Yup. The whole gang agrees that RealEstater has nothing of value to offer anyone on this blog other than unintentional humor.

  49. Real Estater Says:

    Another house sold for over asking in Palo Alto 94306 (that’s right, 94306, south Palo Alto).

    The following are not misprints:

    List Date: 12/03/08
    List Price: $1,089,000
    Sale Date: 12/14/08
    Sale Price: $1,151,000 (106% of asking)

    This was a great deal, and buyers knew it.

  50. DreamT Says:

    Thus dethroning his nemesis

  51. DreamT Says:

    Correcting RE’s grammar again (how tedious):
    “This was a great deal, and a buyer knew it.”
    Unless you have the roster of all offers, you cannot state that there was more than one offer above asking.

  52. Real Estater Says:

    Another tautology/truism while we’re at it:

    On this board, no one has lost his/her job. Even Pralay is employed after Satyam.

    Here’s the second part of the tautology: as long as you still have your job, the economy has no effect on your life or life style.

  53. Real Estater Says:

    DreamT says,
    >>Correcting RE’s grammar again (how tedious):
    “This was a great deal, and a buyer knew it.”

    Unless you have the roster of all offers, you cannot state that there was more than one offer above asking.

    Is DreamT being a moron again? Would a single buyer pay over asking?

  54. DreamT Says:

    Both statements are incorrect.

  55. Pralay Says:

    but hype is always larger than the reality.
    ——–

    The real question is what is forecast based on objective analysis (which can turn out inaccurate in reality) and what is hype. For example, this “all clear to take off” forecast. Was that a hype? Or this “it’ll be very sudden and furious as buyers cave in after a period of low inventory, slow sales and flat prices” forecast. Is that a hype or objective analysis?

    BTW, is there any expert who said Q4 GDP will be up 10% (or something like “no recession here”)? Now that would have been a hype.

  56. DreamT Says:

    “Would a single buyer pay over asking?”

    Before you write your insults, think.
    A real estate transaction may include multiple offers but only results in one buyer. Nobody but the agents and the concerned parties knows the amount of the other offers.

  57. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay,

    You asked a lot of questions. Do you have a single answer?

  58. Real Estater Says:

    DreamT,

    Before you write your response, review the original statement, which says:

    This was a great deal, and buyers knew it.

    If only one buyer thought it was a great deal, where did the multiple offers come from? Damn it, you just broke the string of truisms.

  59. DreamT Says:

    RealEstater – Admit it, you’re not in a management position. You routinely insult folks who correct you rather than acknowledging any mistake, apologizing or even dialog to make sense of the feedback.

  60. Pralay Says:

    Even Pralay is employed after Satyam.
    ——-

    LOL! Many months after the scandal our Chuckie figured out another Indian name. Slowwwwwww! Sometime back he claimed he works with Wipro for his megaaaaa-project. Why does Chuckie know only those companies which come to news only for scandal?

  61. DreamT Says:

    “If only one buyer thought it was a great deal, where did the multiple offers come from? Damn it, you just broke the string of truisms.”

    I have NO IDEA!

  62. nomadic Says:

    re#33 – thanks madhaus. What is really frightening is that it’s dated 3/4/06. Seems even SNL saw the crash coming. :-)

    re NEC – sure, that’s 20,000 layoffs, but 93% of their workforce gets to keep their jobs!

    re#43 – RE, I already covered that dumb remark in #9 above.

  63. Pralay Says:

    You asked a lot of questions. Do you have a single answer?
    ———
    :) No they were not question marks. They were cavuto marks. Hence technically they are not questions.

  64. steve Says:

    This was a great deal, and buyers knew it.

    at the very least, this implies that it sold at a discount to its peak value, no?

    sucessful palo alto pricing strategies
    spring 2008 – price low to incite bidding war
    fall 2008 – price high and hope for a sucker
    winter 2009 – price low and hope for a sucker

    The properties that are pending in PA now followed the new winter strategy. The ones that are languishing are sticking to the old playbook.

    In the fall I was holding out hope for a V shaped recovery. Now, a double-wide U is the best we can hope for and it may well be an L.

  65. Herve Says:

    > In the fall I was holding out hope for a V shaped recovery. Now, a double-wide U is the best we can hope for and it may well be an L.

    Would you happen to be a cheerleader? ;-)

  66. Pralay Says:

    RealEstater – Admit it, you’re not in a management position.
    ———-

    DT,
    Why asking him to admit something which he never claimed? He said that he is not a management class guy, but a simple average hitech guy. Kind of like a worker bee.

  67. nomadic Says:

    Goodness, I get distracted and ten more comments go by before I hit submit. All kinds of juicy fodder too!

    On this board, no one has lost his/her job.
    At least no one who has brought up this bit of personal non-real estate news.

    Here’s the second part of the tautology: as long as you still have your job, the economy has no effect on your life or life style.
    Not tautology, utter bullshit more like it. Just this morning I heard some whiner on the radio saying that since State employees have to (boo hoo) take two unpaid days per month, they’ll have to start cutting back on expenses. Just one example.

    Is DreamT being a moron again? Would a single buyer pay over asking?
    No. Yes – less likely in today’s market but I can absolutely say this has been true in the past (during the bubble you deny). Not to mention DreamT’s accurate rebuttal in #56.

  68. DreamT Says:

    Pralay – I stand corrected. RE’s no manager, just a cheerleader.

  69. DreamT Says:

    Pralay – I stand corrected. RE’s no manager but a cheerleader. Not sure how I ended up confusing both.

  70. DreamT Says:

    Burbed, that site crash followed by the delayed post was not cool!

  71. Pralay Says:

    Pralay – I stand corrected. RE’s no manager but a cheerleader.
    —-

    Considering the fact that he does more insulting/name-calling than cheering, don’t you think he is a very bad cheerleader?

  72. Real Estater Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>re#43 – RE, I already covered that dumb remark in #9 above.

    You and I can say exactly the same thing, but the gang members here would respond quite differently. It’s more like “shoot first, think later”.

  73. DreamT Says:

    “don’t you think he is a very bad cheerleader?”

    If he’s been bad, he needs to be spanked.

  74. Real Estater Says:

    #61 is a totally lame response from a self-proclaimed “VP level” person. Well, at least he can get away with it, since he knows I don’t pursue nonsense on indefinite basis.

  75. nomadic Says:

    RE, the tragedy is that I was parodying preempting what I knew you would say.

    I think the “gang” knew I was being sarcastic. The :-) was a clue.

    Man, I’m psychic!

  76. Pralay Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>re#43 – RE, I already covered that dumb remark in #9 above.

    You and I can say exactly the same thing, but the gang members here would respond quite differently. It’s more like “shoot first, think later”.
    ——–

    LOL! Chuckie admits that his remark is “dumb”.
    The difference between nomadic’s “dumb remark” and Chuckie’s “dumb remark” is that one is a joke and another is truely dumb.

  77. DreamT Says:

    “It’s more like “shoot first, think later”.”
    How about “read previous posts first, read them again, think before typing, type, correct grammatical errors, remove anything that looks like an insult, cross-check for sound logic, click Submit, stay humble and have an open mind when comments start flowing”

  78. Herve Says:

    > If he’s been bad, he needs to be spanked.

    I did not know you could be so kinky.

  79. DreamT Says:

    “from a self-proclaimed “VP level” person”
    Ouch! That hurt.
    How was it a lame response again?

  80. DreamT Says:

    Herve – Notice I was restrained on the “shoot first, think later”. Where’s DensityDuck when we need him?

  81. Pralay Says:

    I don’t pursue nonsense on indefinite basis.
    ———

    Of course in Clintonian way it can be said: “It depends on the definition of sexual relation indefinite“.

    One year? Two year?

  82. Real Estater Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>Not tautology, utter bullshit more like it. Just this morning I heard some whiner on the radio saying that since State employees have to (boo hoo) take two unpaid days per month, they’ll have to start cutting back on expenses. Just one example.

    You’re right, the guy is a whiner. Where can I get a job like that? I’d love to take two days off each month without pay.

  83. madhaus Says:

    Wow, looks like I missed some fireworks. But I’m here to help now!

    1. DreamT is still not a moron.
    2. If we’re talking Palo Alto, I’m taking my advice from steve and not the moron.
    3. Hype is more moronic than reality.
    4. Would a sucker single buyer pay over asking? Of course, if said sucker single buyer is a moron.
    5. Even if you have a job, the slowdown recession depression will seriously affect your life as well as your life style. As well as your lifestyle. Moron.
    6. Pralay asked a lot of questions, but has yet to get a single useful answer from the moron.
    7. RealEstater: Complete moron? proper use of the cavuto mark
    8. Recovery shapes supplied by steve spell LUV. Coincedence? Or sarcastic commentary on the moron? Cavuto Mark?
    9. Can a non-management class self-proclaimed tech guy be a cheerleader? Are mean-spirited and cutting rude guys allowed to join the squad? Do they have to be morons too?
    10. Would a moron want a job with two unpaid days a month?
    11. Would a moron plan on buying more consumer electronics? Should they cost more or less than my guitar?
    12. If a moron says, “Shoot first, think later” when shooting first and not thinking at all, is it fair for gang members to call this to his attention in a humorous manner?
    13. What happens to morons who are spanked? Do they buy more or fewer consumer electronics? Answer quickly; peoples’ jobs depend on it!
    14. If a moron calls someone a “self-proclaimed VP level person” when they actually worked as a VP, does it make the moron a less-on?
    15. nomadic: psychic or just funny as all get out?
    16. Why is it when some kind of double entrendre is brought up, Herve is always nearby? With the brie, yet!
    17. How long is an “indefinite basis” if the moron isn’t pursuing it? Is it like being cleared for take-off, or more like flying through windows?
    17.

  84. steve Says:

    well played, madhaus

    totally off topic, anyone have any insight into big screen tv prices? I’m thinking post superbowl some stores are going to need to move some merchandise. deciding between the awesome Kuro PRO-111FD, a 9 series Samsung (LED backlit) and waiting because TV’s, like RBA houses, are only getting cheaper.

  85. Herve Says:

    steve, I don’t know what to recommend but you could always have a look at this to find out which TVs are energy efficient.

  86. nomadic Says:

    Can we gold-plate post #82? RE said I was right!

    …but if a moron says you’re right, is there any value in that?

    .
    Steve – my only advice on TVs. Buy online: free shipping and no sales tax. Decide what model you want and use teh goog to find the best deal.

  87. nomadic Says:

    (I have a Samsung 850 series and it’s really nice.)

  88. Real Estater Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>Buy online: free shipping and no sales tax.

    You think UPS will carry it into your living room, and help you mount it on the wall? …and God forbid, I hope you never need to return it.

  89. Herve Says:

    From Amazon’s website:

    After your purchase, a representative of the carrier will bring your TV to any room, then unpack and inspect the product for damage that may have occurred during transportation before leaving.

    By the way, RealEstater, any comment on Amazon’s earnings?

  90. Real Estater Says:

    Still no downturn in Palo Alto:

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palo-Alto/4270-WILKIE-94306/home/18573142

    Description from MLS:

    Sold! Five new houses, only 2 left. Don’t miss out on this extraordinary opportunity.

  91. Real Estater Says:

    Herve says,
    >>By the way, RealEstater, any comment on Amazon’s earnings?

    You tell me. They won’t shoot you for saying the same thing.

  92. nomadic Says:

    You think UPS will carry it into your living room, and help you mount it on the wall?

    What’s wrong? Arms broken? No problems with mine. My parents had no problems either. I wouldn’t do it with a plasma though.

  93. Real Estater Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>What’s wrong? Arms broken? No problems with mine.

    You have yours on the wall?

  94. Herve Says:

    > Still no downturn in Palo Alto

    Come on dude, it’s getting tiring. You’re in the Nile.

  95. Pralay Says:

    Sold! Five new houses, only 2 left.
    ——–

    LOL! That sounds like Gables End flyer where there is always 4 homes left.

  96. Real Estater Says:

    >>Come on dude, it’s getting tiring. You’re in the Nile.

    Come on dude, some folks here actually believe every house is like the ones featured on this site.

  97. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay,

    Can you take a picture of Gables End at night? That’s the easiest way to check if people are living there or not.

    You might need to borrow a camera from madhaus though. I don’t know if yours can take pictures at night.

  98. madhaus Says:

    Hey, nomadic, are you engaging in gang activity again?

  99. Pralay Says:

    Where can I get a job like that? I’d love to take two days off each month without pay.
    ——
    :) But first our Chuckie needs to find a job that does not require to be staying up till 2AM. Poor guy! He is long way from getting a decent job.

  100. nomadic Says:

    You have yours on the wall?

    Doesn’t everybody?

    Well, maybe not renters. They shouldn’t be fishing wires and making holes.

    —- zing! —-
    :-P

  101. madhaus Says:

    Can you take a picture of Gables End at night? That’s the easiest way to check if people are living there or not.

    You might need to borrow a camera from madhaus though. I don’t know if yours can take pictures at night.

    Why can’t you do it, Roger? Use your cam corder. From a sky scraper. In Manhatten.

  102. Pralay Says:

    I don’t know if yours can take pictures at night.
    ———

    Chuckie,
    It’s called Bulb Mode.
    Anyway, taking picture at night is pointless. When I drive on 101 at daytime, I still see “four home left” sign.

  103. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus,

    We need a report on this one:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1386-BITTERN-Dr-94087/home/1499628

  104. Pralay Says:

    Use your cam corder.
    ——-

    High end cam corder! Don’t understate his stuffs.

  105. nomadic Says:

    you betcha, madhaus
    crappy day, lots of energy to pelt others with

    Hey, what’s the big deal with Wilkie in PA anyway? I toured that house back in August or maybe earlier. It’s still on the market. There were 2-3 floorplans in the set and at least one of them was really weird. I think they had three available then, so that means only one sold in the last 5 months.

    The “T” intersection makes that one fairly undesirable at that price point. Who wants headlights shining in all night?

  106. Real Estater Says:

    nomadic says,
    >>The “T” intersection makes that one fairly undesirable at that price point. Who wants headlights shining in all night?

    I think it’s quite impressive that they’re able to sell any of those units such prices. Usually, if your budget is over $2M, you want to land a spot in north PA.

  107. Pralay Says:

    I toured that house back in August or maybe earlier. It’s still on the market. There were 2-3 floorplans in the set and at least one of them was really weird. I think they had three available then, so that means only one sold in the last 5 months.
    ——

    But but but, they say only “2 homes left”. Don’t miss this “extraordinary opportunity”.

  108. Prof. Bleen Says:

    Another house sold for over asking in Palo Alto 94306…

    Keywords: meaningless, anecdotal, data

  109. steve Says:

    nomadic, nice choice!

    plan was to have bought a bigger house by now so I could go projector. new plan is to wait for RE to become a bear – a likely indication of the bottom. sadly for my projector-owning dreams, this seems far away.

  110. DreamT Says:

    steve – I bought my projector back when I had a condo, projecting on the wall across, office room some nights, living rooms other nights. Why wait? :) This is literally the best purchase I’ve made these past few years.

  111. nomadic Says:

    Thanks, Steve. I am quite happy with it. Consumer Reports consistently rates Samsung at the top and their prices are comparable with the other major brands. Even non-HD channels are crisp.

    Watch Best Buy’s website too. I got mine in late-October or early-November. If I had waited until Black Friday, BB had the same set for a couple hundred bucks less (even after tax) with free delivery and set-up by Geek Squad.

  112. nomadic Says:

    back relating to real estate, I find this article oddly reassuring:

    http://blog.redfin.com/sfbay/2009/01/case-shiller_bay_area_home_price_drops_show_no_sign_of_relenting.html

  113. R Says:

    I’d buy the kuro, currently at costco for under 2k. If you truly want to read up, check out avsforum.

    http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&daysprune=&f=167

  114. Real Estater Says:

    Whatever you guys buy, just don’t throw one away every month, like Pralay does.

  115. DreamT Says:

    Is it that time of the month, RE? Can’t manage to keep a conversation civil?

  116. R Says:

    RE, you’re on the right track but your sentence should read: “whatever you guys buy, just don’t throw one away every month, by purchasing an overpriced house that you could rent for thousands per month less and will depreciate hundreds of thousands over the next several years.”

  117. madhaus Says:

    Correct, R, it’s clear Roger still doesn’t understand the concept of monthly equity burn, a concept I first encountered on IHB.

    In fact, a flat-screen TV is probably the wrong unit to use for eroding equity. I’m thinking something more in line like a Sub-Zero fridge or a Porsche Boxster. Maybe even a cubical.

  118. madhaus Says:

    Chuckie sez: madhaus, We need a report on this one:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1386-BITTERN-Dr-94087/home/1499628

    My secretary is Herve. Ask him to do it when he brings the Lambo back.

  119. Herve Says:

    > My secretary is Herve. Ask him to do it when he brings the Lambo back.

    I’m out with the Lambo all day today, but my own secretary anon will do it when (s)he’s back from touring Napa with the Cayenne.

  120. madhaus Says:

    Oh I am sure anon will cheerfully comply with Roger’s requests! Wonder if s/he has a secretary too.

  121. nomadic Says:

    madhaus? Isn’t Bittern yet another house in FUHSD that would attend Fremont High?

  122. Herve Says:

    > madhaus? Isn’t Bittern yet another house in FUHSD that would attend Fremont High?

    I’ll take this question if you don’t mind, and I’ll pass it to anon to answer.

  123. Real Estater Says:

    Damn. I gave madhaus a simple task. She couldn’t handle it, even though it’s right in her back yard. Madhaus is fired!

  124. Real Estater Says:

    OK, who wants to give a report on this one:

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1356-ARLEEN-Ave-94087/home/1829961

    anon, it might be worth a trip for you. Maybe you can land a spot in prestigious CUSD. All that’s left to do is to make some kids, which shouldn’t be a problem if you let it be known that you’re a home owner in 94087.

  125. Herve Says:

    RealEstater, you’re nobody’s boss here. You want something? Do it yourself! ;-)

  126. Real Estater Says:

    Herve,

    I’m shopping Palo Alto and Menlo Park tomorrow. I need somebody to keep an eye on 94087 for me. I thought all of you want me to make a purchase?

  127. anon Says:

    You misunderstand. The point is that nobody cares.

  128. Real Estater Says:

    anon,

    I agree that you are nobody.

  129. Prof. Bleen Says:

    All that’s left to do is to make some kids, which shouldn’t be a problem if you let it be known that you’re a home owner in 94087.

    As a geneticist, I find this assertion intriguing. Is ZIP code the modern display of reproductive fitness—Homo technologicus‘s answer to peacock feathers?

    As a THINKER,* I find it halfway between inconsistent and absurd. According to your own rhetoric, RE, good schools add value to homes regardless of one’s intention to have children (I believe this was your response to bob’s statement that schools didn’t matter to him, and I agree with you on this)—so why would anon be obliged to have kids after moving into CUSD?

    *Two Healthy Incomes, No Kids, Early Retirement

  130. Real Estater Says:

    Come on, I just thought it would be cool for anon to drive to 94087 in his Cayenne. The realtors might be fooled into thinking he can actually afford the place, and treat him to some Indian sweets.

  131. madhaus Says:

    Let’s see, 94087, 94087, 94087… Herve, you know anything about 94087?

  132. Real Estater Says:

    Personally, I think life without kids would be boring. When you have kids, you sort of re-live your childhood: you’d be reading children’s books to them, watching cartoon network, and playing video games. Except this time, there’re no parents to regulate your bedtime, and you can buy whatever the heck you want from the stores.

  133. madhaus Says:

    nomadic, all of Birdland is Fremont High as that neighborhood is east of Sunnyvale-Saratoga. The dividing line is either that street or Hollenbeck.

    Prof Bleen, here’s some useless anecdotal data. nomadic owned a house in 94087 but hasn’t commented on having any kids. I own a house in 94087 and have commented that I do have kids.

    Therefore, living in 94087 may or may not make you more reproductively fit. Besides, my kids have yet to whup RE’s kids in a Gifted and Talented Face-Off. I think the events will be Musical Composition, Poetry Slam, Invent Your Own Language, Build A Scale Model of the Dumbarton Bridge Using Only Toothpicks and Dental Floss, and Sing an Original Song Explaining Why the RBA Cannot Possibly Exist.

    Roger, what consumer electronics will you be shopping for? We all need to know. Right now.

  134. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus,

    As I mentioned before, I don’t like to shop for stuff. I’d much rather get rid of the stuff I have than to acquire anything new.

    Pretty much I’m just focused on buying a house right now.

  135. Real Estater Says:

    >>Pretty much I’m just focused on buying a house right now.

    And I need your help to check out those houses!

  136. madhaus Says:

    But Roger, you already have a house. Awfully selfish of you to want two of ‘em.

  137. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus says,
    >>all of Birdland is Fremont High as that neighborhood is east of Sunnyvale-Saratoga.

    It’s pretty well known that “Birdland” is a sought after neighborhood. I don’t get why you’re so much against Fremont High. If all the kids from Birdland go there, how bad can it be?

  138. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus says,
    >>you already have a house. Awfully selfish of you to want two of ‘em.

    It’s called win-win. I’m helping some renters send their kids to prestigious CUSD.

  139. madhaus Says:

    It’s pretty well known that “Birdland” is a sought after neighborhood. I don’t get why you’re so much against Fremont High. If all the kids from Birdland go there, how bad can it be?

    Fremont High School
    2008 API: 736
    2007 State API Decile Rank: 6
    2007 Similar Schools Rank: 4

    Any questions?

  140. Real Estater Says:

    I would also be helping the economy.

  141. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus says,
    >>Fremont High School
    2008 API: 736

    Must be due to kids from North Sunnyvale, sort of like the Menlo-Atherton High syndrome. Anyways, most people buying there are not your age. Their kids are likely to be in kindergarden, elementary or at most middle school.

  142. madhaus Says:

    Oh yeah, blame it on the North Sunnyvale kids. Funny thing is, North Sunnyvale kids also attend Homestead High (API: 846).

    Tell me, Roger, why would you recommend spending a million dollars on a house in Birdland when there are homes on the other side of Saratoga-Sunnyvale that get a high school that scores 110 points higher? I understand math isn’t really your “thing” but I assure you that 110 points is statistically significant (that means it’s, like, important).

    This isn’t a timed exam, so please think carefully.

  143. Real Estater Says:

    madhaus,

    The other high school can score 200 points higher and it still wouldn’t matter if you don’t have kids who are high school age!

  144. Herve Says:

    > math isn’t really your “thing”

    What’s his “thing” anyway? We know it is not mathematics. We know it is not logic. It’s definitely not spelling. Sports maybe? Color matching?

  145. nomadic Says:

    posting inane comments on blogs?
    .

    madhaus wrote: nomadic, all of Birdland is Fremont High as that neighborhood is east of Sunnyvale-Saratoga. The dividing line is either that street or Hollenbeck.

    Yeah, I know. Almost a rhetorical question. Just trying to drive home the point one more time for those slow players who can’t keep up.

    BTW, I think I have commented on the child bearing thing. I don’t have ‘em nor have the interest. Bleen’s THINKER acronym sounds good to me but I’m beginning to doubt the “early retirement” part. ;-) Well, unless I decide to look for a bagholder this year maybe.

  146. DreamT Says:

    Color matching? Black with black?

  147. madhaus Says:

    Okay, nomadic, I never heard THINKER either, but I have heard what you are: DINKs. Double Income, No Kids.

    As opposed to us SITKAs. Single Income, Two Kids, Arggh!

  148. madhaus Says:

    The other high school can score 200 points higher and it still wouldn’t matter if you don’t have kids who are high school age!

    You know, not everyone wants to trade up every 5 years. And if you stay in one place during the whole school experience, hello Prop 13!

  149. nomadic Says:

    Not only that, some plan to live in the same place until they DIE! (Weirdos!)

  150. David Mortaz Says:

    Wow, it’s amazing this little listing has generated this much debate on housing crash, moody’s and credit agencies roles…and the crooks on Wall Street who sold the mortgage back securities.

    Has anyone seen the property recently?! I walk by it every day with Dog Remy (coolest cat in Los Gatos) and it seems a nice family lives in it now after the remodel. Too bad the US Economy went into recession for these guys to get a house, but I am not sure they give a damn cause they kids go to Los Gatos school and it’s a beautiful neighborhood.

    We have 1st hand knowledge that in well-branded communities like Los Goats, remodeling these kind of gems in the rough are very profitable.

    So, please call us if you see anything like this in your drives around Los Gatos.

    David

    You know what we find amazing, David? It’s that you’d troll a 4+ year old post trying to drum up business. But you know what, it was good you did, as we looked up how much the house finally sold for. You’ve got to head over to The Big Z and check out the listing history, it’s amazing.

    Anyway, bottom line, the house was listed in June 2008, and finally sold in March.

    March 2013.

    For $1,350,000. Yes indeed, more than they were asking in 2009. But nowhere what they were asking in 2011!

    Anyway, we usually remove URLs from people trying to cleverly post linkbait, but your link gets to stay because you’re sneakily trying to suggest you had something to do with this house. The house in the link is similar but not the same. And because you’re local and at least your comment is about the house in the article. Also because, face it, nobody’s going to find your comment when the one above it was posted on 2/1/09.

    Spammer Win! For once! –ed.


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