July 24, 2009

San Jose avoided the housing bubble

Home Sales, All Over the Map – WSJ.com
In California, San Diego and Sacramento both have become much more affordable, she says. Ms. Kahn also thinks prospects are relatively good in Denver; Raleigh, N.C.; San Jose, Calif.; and the Texas cities of Austin and San Antonio—areas that generally avoided the housing bubble and so don’t have as much need to adjust.

Newflash everyone!

San Jose avoided the housing bubble! The prices are real! The prices are real!

OMG stop waiting for the bottom! Buy buy buy!

Comments (186) -- Posted by: burbed @ 6:48 am

186 Responses to “San Jose avoided the housing bubble”

  1. BobbyS Says:

    So there’s no chance of that $500,000 east San Jose 900 square foot 4 bedroom (one of which is an illegal addition) 1 bath shack to lower in price? I guess I am even priced out of the most modest houses in east San Jose. :(

  2. no estater Says:

    The WSJ writer is GENIUS! Of course there was no bubble in San Jose. It’s special here.

    And look, even Redfin says things are back to normal here.

    We were surprised to see that only 84% of the homes our clients bid on in June had multiple offers. Our agents say it feels like every home for sale has multiple offers on it. In June, our Bay Area agents presented 73 offers to listing agents and 61 of those, or 84%, were on homes with at least one other offer, up from 69% in May.

    http://blog.redfin.com/sfbay/2009/07/84_of_offers_are_on_homes_with_multiple_bids.html

  3. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    I put an offer in on a house. There were indeed multiple offers on the house. 2 of them. Of course, we were both lowballers, so the owner decided to keep his crapshack, but there were multiple offers! Both almost 200k under asking.

  4. nomadic Says:

    I’m guessing the Redfin report also says a lot about the people who use them to buy a house, as well as the part of the market they serve.

  5. anon Says:

    “so the owner decided to keep his crapshack, but there were multiple offers! Both almost 200k under asking.”

    Crapshacks are in high demand. That’s why they get multiple offers!

  6. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    I demanded that he lower his crapshack price. The realtor said they didn’t take my offer seriously. I responded by saying I didn’t take their asking price seriously.

    In another month, I’ll lowball again, this time EVEN LOWER! And say “Each time I offer, I’m cutting money off the price.”

  7. nomadic Says:

    sfbb, why bother wasting everyone’s time?

  8. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    Waste time lowballing? Well, if it’s accepted, then I got a house at close to what I think it’s worth. Plus it annoys sellers, so that’s a bonus. :D

  9. anon Says:

    “I demanded that he lower his crapshack price. The realtor said they didn’t take my offer seriously. I responded by saying I didn’t take their asking price seriously.”

    LOL – Nice

  10. Real Estater Says:

    Dow is over 9000 now as company earnings are up broadly. Housing is doing better as well. Even the Shiller guy is beginning to speak a different tone. My company is internally discussing hiring to meet the anticipated up-tick in demand. I think the doom and gloom has pretty much run its course, and Q1 ’09 is now widely acknowledged as the bottom.

  11. Real Estater Says:

    Check out the latest issue of Fortune magazine. It has an interesting article about Marc Andreessen (Netscape Founder) frequently meeting up with Mark Zuckerburg at the Palo Alto Creamery.

    A friend of mine told me that initially Mark Z. started Facebook because the women sucked at college, so he started a site to get people to rate the women at college. That site later evolved into a social networking site, and the rest is history.

  12. DreamT Says:

    RE – always ahead of the curve! Maybe you should post your comments on gossip blogs instead of polluting burbed.

  13. DreamT Says:

    My company concluded a hire for a new position last week. Tell your managers to catch up, RE! Why are you still using words like ‘doom’ and ‘gloom’?!?

  14. Pralay Says:

    RealEstater,

    Please take non-real estate related discussions elsewhere.

  15. Pralay Says:

    Q1 ‘09 is now widely acknowledged as the bottom.
    ——

    And it is coming from RealEstater’s bottom. :)

  16. anon Says:

    Got it must be great to be real estater!

    Too dumb to know how messed up things really are.

  17. zanon Says:

    I fired someone last month, replaced them with someone better. Going to do that this month too.

    Labor is on sale in the USA my friends.

  18. Herve Estater Says:

    Redfin: 84% of offers are on homes with multiple bids.

  19. no estater Says:

    try to keep up, Herve Estater
    :-)

  20. nomadic Says:

    #8, sfbb, I was referring to this part:
    In another month, I’ll lowball again, this time EVEN LOWER! And say “Each time I offer, I’m cutting money off the price.”

    Bid to your heart’s content. Spread the love, so to speak.

  21. Herve Estater Says:

    > try to keep up, Herve Estater

    I like my link better :-P

  22. Real Estater Says:

    From the latest Creekside Realty report, frequently quoted by the Mercury News:

    Inventory in SCC is currently at 2,786 for SFR. This continues the downward trend that started after peaking in February at 4,328. These drops in inventory are unusual as inventory normally increases from mid-January through mid-July before starting a slow decline through the New Year. Additionally, this is the lowest inventory since April 2007. The same pattern holds for condo/townhouse with 957 down from 1,499 in January 2009. This is also the lowest inventory since late March 2007. These drops in inventory are good news. But remember it is all about micro-markets. Some areas will likely experience price appreciation while others depreciation.

    Normal supply (inventory) at 88% combined with larger than normal demand (initiated sales) at 115% yields a lower than normal supply/demand ratio (DUI) at 72%. Many short sales and REO sales are incorrectly being left as available properties. Consequently, the true supply is actually lower and the true demand higher.

  23. burbednewbie Says:

    SFBB,

    Do you make your own offers or do you have an agent make them? I’ve thought of throwing in lowball offers, but I don’t know if agents will be willing to submit them!

  24. DreamT Says:

    Only three posts today. Guess everybody except bob is busy flipping properties.

  25. Pralay Says:

    his continues the downward trend that started after peaking in February at 4,328.
    ————

    Inventory!!! That’s so useless aggregate data where all the non-RBA zipcodes/cities are getting bad rap due to RBA zipcodes/cities.

    Nothing could be more contrasting than two Palo Altos.

    Here inventory change between July 2008 –> July 2009

    East Palo Alto: 197 –> 91 (that’s inventory going down)
    Prestigious Palo Alto: 154 –> 212 (that’s inventory going up)

    Let’s talk about zipcodes:
    94085 (Non-RBA Sunnyvale): 93 –> 36 (that’s inventory going down)
    94087 (RBA Sunnyvale): 40 –> 115 (that’s inventory going up)

    Some other cities:
    Cupertino: 127 –> 190 (inventory going up)
    Los Altos: 54 –> 141 (inventory going up)

    Inventories of EPA and 94085 are going down due to foreclosure moratoriums and banks piling up shadow inventories.

  26. Pralay Says:

    BTW, those numbers came from redfin Market Trends charts.

  27. Real Estater Says:

    >>Prestigious Palo Alto: 154 –> 212 (that’s inventory going up)

    >>BTW, those numbers came from redfin Market Trends charts.

    Make sure you understand these numbers. Currently, there are 134 SFH listings on MLS for Palo Alto.

  28. DreamT Says:

    everybody except bob, RealEstater, Pralay and myself…

  29. Real Estater Says:

    A typical Palo Alto buyer would have the following requirements:

    - House is at least 1200 sq. ft.
    - Lot size is at least 6000 sq. ft.
    - Price is under $2M.

    Plug in these criteria, and you’d find only 49 listings, including 6 that are already pending!

    If you are looking for something under $1.5M, then you’d find only 22 listings that are not pending!

  30. nomadic Says:

    A trifecta in my slum tomorrow! Three open houses! There are six houses for sale in my nano-market. Since I moved here, maybe 12-14 houses would turn over each year. Three sold in the last six months. I guess this could still be “normal.”

    Five of them are old people who have lived here for eons. The sixth is bank-owned.

    DT – you are right. I was working on my “flip” today – painting. :-)

  31. Real Estater Says:

    Let’s play this out a little bit. Say you’re a picky buyer like me who wants the following:

    - At least 3 bedroom
    - Home at least 1500 sq. ft.
    - Lot size at least 7000 sq. ft.
    - 94301 zip north of the Oregon Expressway
    - Price under $2M

    Then you find only 3 properties on the market!
    (870 Guinda, 1476 Pitman, 1127 High St)

    Look closer, you find that 870 Guinda needs remodeling, and is located at a corner with traffic coming from 5 directions; 1127 High St is 1 house away from busy Embarcadero Rd.. That leaves you a choice of 1 (1476 Pitman). If your budget max’s out at $1.5M like Steve, then you’re done.

    As this simple exercise demonstrates, Pralay’s inventory “data” is useless and misleading.

  32. Pralay Says:

    Make sure you understand these numbers. Currently, there are 134 SFH listings on MLS for Palo Alto.
    —-

    Yes, RealEstater those inventory data was for SFH + condo. So tell us how is Palo Alto inventory doing for only-SFH.
    The inventory chart from Altos Research does not look very promising (yes, this one is for SFH). For 90-days inventory: 80 –> 154.

  33. Pralay Says:

    Say you’re a picky buyer like me who wants the following:
    ——

    LOL! So the whole market condition should be determined by a “picky buyer”.

    According to him, Palo Alto inventory consists of only one property (1476 Pitman). As the picky buyer is planning to buy a property for more than a year, so total number of sale in last one year is ZERO.

    As this simple exercise demonstrates, RealEstater’s claiming market picking up is useless and misleading. There wasn’t a SINGLE sale in Palo Alto in last one year.

  34. DreamT Says:

    The active RBA market is hence reduced to nil. Worthy demonstration!

  35. Pralay Says:

    Plug in these criteria, and you’d find only 49 listings, including 6 that are already pending!
    ——

    And how was the number in July 2008?

    Let me get some idea. In July 2008 total number of SFH sold in Palo Alto: 45. And you are telling me last years’s total sale number (for any range) was less than today’s sub-2M SFH inventory? And only 6 is pending?

    Hmmm, Palo Alto is in lot worse shape than I thought. May be Palo Alto should merged with East Palo Alto temporarily and report their inventory together.

  36. DreamT Says:

    nomadic – Your nano neighborhood sounds very active. Only one house for sale at the moment in mine, just came up, and is priced 23% higher than it sold back in April 2004. No recent sales, nothing else on sale, no foreclosures, nada, nil, NULL.

  37. nomadic Says:

    Weirdly active, yes. Now let’s see if any sell before fall…

  38. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay says,
    >>Hmmm, Palo Alto is in lot worse shape than I thought. May be Palo Alto should merged with East Palo Alto temporarily and report their inventory together.

    You reached this conclusion months ago: Palo Alto is no longer desirable!

  39. Pralay Says:

    You reached this conclusion months ago: Palo Alto is no longer desirable!
    —-

    Although I never said so, but today I won’t deny it (like a politician) – because there is ZERO home sale in Palo Alto in last one year. :)

  40. Pralay Says:

    Only one house for sale at the moment in mine, just came up, and is priced 23% higher than it sold back in April 2004. No recent sales, nothing else on sale, no foreclosures, nada, nil, NULL.
    —–

    Probably it’s time for 94301 and 95051 to swap their titles Real Gray Area and Real Bay Area.

  41. Real Estater Says:

    I guess this is Pralay’s desperate attempt to save face after his agenda falls flat on his face. What utter stupidity. As I’ve already shown, there’s hardly any inventory in Palo Alto based on reasonable criteria. It’s as challenging as ever for a family to move into Palo Alto. It’s really not about me. I already own a house that meets all of those criteria plus more.

  42. anon Says:

    No, excreter, you do not own anything.

    You have signed up to pay a mortgage.

  43. SV Shopper Says:

    Hi all,

    I’ve been staying in the valley for about 3 years now after transferring from NY. Glad I made the move because NY is not a pretty scene now. I finally got enough dough saved up to buy in the low million range (Luckily, I already had a good amount locked away after selling my NY apartment).

    After looking around for a month, I have to say RE is completely right, and Pralay is, well, smoking dope. I wouldn’t have said that a month ago, because the stats were painting a different picture. The raw stat is meaningless because criteria are very important. Most people are not looking for a 600 sq ft crap shack to rebuild, nor a 5 million dollar mansion.

    For my budget, I can barely find anything. Where is all the inventory that’s supposedly languishing on the market?

  44. DreamT Says:

    You can’t find anything in the low million range? Come on now, plenty of 3/2 SFRs, 1400sqf on 6k lot are on the market for half a million and in good condition to boot, in the heart of the silicon valley. Why don’t you tell us what you’re really looking for?

  45. bob Says:

    SV shopper,
    I work in the juiciest, richest, “most desirable” part of SV and I can personally tell you that there’s an abundance of homes in the 650-750k range. Course’ these are all what I would call typical boring suburban homes one can find in Austin, Raleigh, or most any other city for 150k. But by golly- if you simply must live here, there’s plenty of old farts who would be thrilled to remove 3/4 a million bucks for their tiny little piece of heaven.

  46. bob Says:

    RE,
    Where exactly are you looking? Like I said, I drive through the heart of Palo Alto everyday on my way to work.There’s no shortage of homes for sale. There are some- even some huge monster-sized mansions that look like the kind people with “serious money” could afford that are simply sitting there. Some since I started work in the office almost 8-9 months ago. Quite a few of the typical 800k starter homes have “price reduced” signs popping out. Go drive around. Homes a-plenty.

  47. nomadic Says:

    bob – he’s talking about houses in PA under $1.5M in the “better” neighborhoods (whatever that means). Hard to believe ANYTHING in PA would be under $800k. Are you sure about that?

    -
    Update on the open houses in my neighborhood. One is pretty nice, with a new kitchen. It’s been on the market about a week and has an offer already (over $1M). The agent said it was “quite a bit” below asking but they took it as a good sign that they are priced right. I think they have a competitive price, especially since the dump down the street is listed for $150k more and needs to be completely gutted in my opinion. (It hasn’t even been painted inside for at least 15 years.) The realtard/owner is smoking the finest dope or he’s already into the first stages of dementia. The third place needs updating but is in decent condition. They are priced $225k below the realtard. Still, in this market I think a house in need of updating (e.g., it has a 1960s kitchen) will take quite a bit longer to sell.

  48. bob Says:

    Let’s define what “better” is supposed to mean and the go from there. I drive right through PA not far from the campus. Just from what I see from the road is a pretty wide swath of homes in and under the 750k range. Doesn’t matter really. The stuff is all overpriced. But from what I can see, there’s definitely “steals” under 1.5 mil.

  49. bob Says:

    Just a general comment. Indeed- I looked on Craigslist. There’s definitely a lot more houses in PA for over a million. Most are seemingly unimpressive and perhaps even dumpy and dilapidated. Seriously- are these people really that dumb to spend that kind of money? If I had major bucks the last thing I’d want to do is waste it on property here.Money is money and value is value. Paying a cool mil for a small piece of property anywhere is absurd.Its like paying $100,000 for a Chevette. Its a cliche I know, but these houses in PA are 100k in the nicer parts of Austin. Thus I can only assume many people in SV haven’t gotten out enough. They don’t have my respect nor do I find myself envious of their choices. Rant off…

  50. DreamT Says:

    Don’t worry bob, you don’t have their respect either and most people could care less if you’re envious of their choices or not.

  51. palo alto resident Says:

    Bob. Check out the Palo Alto MLS. I count two free standing structures under 800k, one at 798k, and another at 775k. That doesn’t count as “Homes a-plenty” in anyone’s book. Now if you are talking about s****y starter apartments under 800, which comprise about 10% of the available inventory in Palo Alto, I can see many of those sitting.

  52. Pralay Says:

    As I’ve already shown, there’s hardly any inventory in Palo Alto based on reasonable criteria. It’s as challenging as ever for a family to move into Palo Alto. It’s really not about me. I already own a house that meets all of those criteria plus more.
    ——

    LOL! Reasonable criteria? Someone who posted #22 to tell that inventory going down now took refuge in “reasonable critetia” (because actually PA inventory going up).

    How does RealEstater knows that ALL the families are looking for 6000 sq-ft lot? How does RealEstater knows families are not looking for south of Oregon Expwy?

    Power line.
    Then next to freeway.
    Then on busy street.
    Then on new set of “reasonable critetia” that qualifies as RBA property!!!! :)

    The way RealEstater is adding conditions for RBA property qualification, pretty soon there will be ONE home left in RBA – and that is his own home.

  53. Pralay Says:

    Luckily, I already had a good amount locked away after selling my NY apartment
    —–

    SV Shopper,
    You are first guy who moved from “Manhatten” but does not call it Manhattan (unless of course you are from Crooklyn). :)

    —-
    For my budget, I can barely find anything. Where is all the inventory that’s supposedly languishing on the market?
    —-

    Poor SV Shopper. It looks like he has is going to take longer than RealEstater.

  54. Pralay Says:

    The raw stat is meaningless because criteria are very important. Most people are not looking for a 600 sq ft crap shack to rebuild, nor a 5 million dollar mansion.
    —–

    Sv Shopper,
    RealEstater said approx one and half year back:

    It’s all about choice. If you cannot afford Palo Alto, you can still afford a small piece of it.

    Buying a small piece of something still better than not having anything, because at least you have a starting point on which to build equity and trade up.

    So, 600 sq-ft crap shack should definitely be your choice. It’s all about building equity. And having something better than not having anything. :)

  55. Pralay Says:

    Why don’t you tell us what you’re really looking for?

    I think he has only one criteria – exotic plant in backyard. And coincidentally it is the only leftover property of RBA. Tough choice!!!

  56. SV Shopper Says:

    Not sure if I should even bother with the absurd comments already addressed by some. Bob is obviously clueless, not only about Palo alto, but about Austin. I have been to Austin. The downtown condos are selling for $450K. To get a $100K home you need to be pretty far away from town. In other words, you’re not even in Austin. You’re in one of those Texas towns where it would be pretty obvious why it is only worth $100K.

  57. DreamT Says:

    SV Shopper – Forget bob and let us know why San Jose’s, Santa Clara’s and Sunnyvale’s 500k to 800k SFRs don’t cut it for you…

  58. SV Shopper Says:

    Texas is taking a beating from the heat right now. Hasn’t anybody heard about the water shortage there? If you water your lawn at more than the allowed frequency, your neighbor can report you to the cops!

  59. SV Shopper Says:

    DreamT – I work in the upper peninsula. I don’t want to commute from the South Bay.

  60. nomadic Says:

    You might want to try Belmont, RWC and that area then. You’ll get a lot more for your money than PA (and prices have already come down there).

  61. SV Shopper Says:

    Pralay – I actually would rather own a small piece of Palo Alto rather than a larger piece of something else, but not that small. We have one child and plan to have another. Seriously, don’t be a dick. Those criteria are quite basic and reasonable.

  62. DreamT Says:

    Fair enough, but the silicon valley denomination generally excludes anything north of Palo Alto/Menlo Park, hence my confusion.
    Wouldn’t Redwood City, San Carlos or Daly City have a lot of bargains? Even Belmont and lower San Mateo must have half-mil SFRs. For a million you’re already in the Redwood City hills, which is why I imagine you have some kind of minimum standard in mind.

  63. SV Shopper Says:

    nomadic – Those cities you recommend have lousy schools. Wife is very big on education.

  64. DreamT Says:

    It also figures that if you live in the hills (Los Gatos, Los Altos Hills, Portola Valley, Woodside, Emerald Hills, PA Country Club…) you cannot really claim to be a Silicon Valley homeowner… :)

  65. DreamT Says:

    SV Shopper: send them to private school. PA is out of your $ range and then you have to go further south.

  66. SV Shopper Says:

    DreamT – Not looking for bargains in exchange for my kid’s education. Minimal standard is 1500 sq. ft. 3/2 in a top school district. We’re looking in Burlingame as well, but prices are also very high and selection limited.

  67. SV Shopper Says:

    DreamT – I got started in this conversation because someone here is chanting “high inventory”. I’m just saying SHOW ME THE INVENTORY!

  68. DreamT Says:

    SV Shopper – sorry, can only help you south&east of Sunnyvale. I’m not familiar with the “other side” of PA ;) In any case, “if” you could shop south, you’d find what you want for an acceptable price, although inventory isn’t high at all in my opinion. Anyway, good luck.

  69. Pralay Says:

    Seriously, don’t be a dick. Those criteria are quite basic and reasonable.
    —-

    Seriously, don’t be a dick. RealEstater said that something small is better than NOT having anything. Afterall it’s about building equity. And it seems you already priced out yourself for leftover RBA by not buying your dream home in last three years. :(

  70. Pralay Says:

    DreamT – I got started in this conversation because someone here is chanting “high inventory”. I’m just saying SHOW ME THE INVENTORY!
    —-

    LOL! The whole discussion started when someone chanted “inventory going down” (#22). It’s not about high or low. It’s was about up or down.
    Why am I having a feeling that although you changed your screen-name but somehow your logical reasoning didn’t change accordingly?

  71. Pralay Says:

    I have been to Austin. The downtown condos are selling for $450K.
    —-

    Looks like SV Shopper and RealEstater are bumping on each other all over US and chasing same/similar properties. As a result they are pricing each other out. :)

  72. Pralay Says:

    Not looking for bargains in exchange for my kid’s education. Minimal standard is 1500 sq. ft. 3/2 in a top school district.
    ——

    According to RealEstater, our local pro, there is only one property that meets your requirement. Pretty soon that one will be snapped up by some Google or Face Book employee. That means you simply don’t have any hope. You are in “rentard” status for last three years and it seems you have to keep that status for a few more years. :(

  73. Pralay Says:

    You’re in one of those Texas towns where it would be pretty obvious why it is only worth $100K.
    —–

    Ah! Such RealExcreterish insult for Texas towns! :)

  74. PA-S Says:

    bob-

    I found three next next to stanford for under 900k.

    http://www.californiamoves.com/Property/propertydetails.aspx?SearchID=7579271&PropertyGUID=EB25022D-2A67-4041-9977-9F2D5CF2C248&RowNum=50
    http://www.californiamoves.com/Property/propertydetails.aspx?SearchID=7579271&PropertyGUID=A4F5E944-C8CF-479C-8B40-02FAAED071D9&RowNum=49
    http://www.californiamoves.com/Property/propertydetails.aspx?SearchID=7579271&PropertyGUID=D5E5E528-F6EB-41B7-879F-296EEBCBB460&RowNum=46

  75. steve Says:

    PA-S, the last one is listed at 989K

  76. PA-S Says:

    sorry, need new eyeglasses

  77. A. Lewis Says:

    I think the inventory drop signal you are perhaps seeing in the RBA is the sellers holding off because they can’t get their wishing prices.

    This signal has appeared all over the price.

    It precedes a big price drop later when the properties come on the market in a rush.

    But hey, those RBA owners have a lot of money to hold strong with (right?) – if they can hold the inventory off for 5 years, maybe they can keep prices flat instead of falling.

    You realize spring “bounce” is over now, right? And we’re heading into the seasonal slump part of the annual homebuying cycle? So let’s just watch and see how prices do.

    IMHO, the fortress-RBA is ever-shrinking, and less and less people are drinking the kool-aid each month.

    SV Shopper – if you just have your heart set on a given neighborhood, regardless of the prices you are seeing there, you’ll have to consider renting.

    I would recommend that, and just watch for more inventory in the future.

  78. A. Lewis Says:

    d’oh! “…all over the price.” ??? I meant all over the “place”, sorry…

  79. Pralay Says:

    This signal has appeared all over the places.
    —-

    In non-RBA, it is mainly due to foreclosure moratorium and banks taking off listing. Sometime back I was reading somewhere that banks started taking off “hopeless” foreclosed properties which are sitting in market long time. They are keeping only those properties in market which have better chances of selling in this environment. That explains why there is 50-60% drop in inventory in non-RBA neighborhoods.

    But things are different in RBA. Y-to-Y inventory actually went up. I know, our favorite pro would add 100 “reasonable criteria” to demonstrate inventory drop, but well, inventory is inventory. If too many properties do not fit into ever-expanding “reasonable criteria” (busy st + powerline + train track + 1500 sqft + 6000 sqft lot + north of Oregon + 94301 zipcode + 3 bdrm +………so on), it tells you that buyers are getting more more picky every month (you know it is not sellers’ market anymore and buyers have too many choices and options in down market).

  80. R Says:

    There are a lot of owners pulling their homes off the market to rent them out. How long they can afford to do so remains to be seen, as the difference between most owner’s mortgage payments and rental income is a couple thousand dollars a month. That doesn’t include property taxes, maintenance, property management fees, etc.

    I know that I certainly wouldn’t want to be paying a couple grand a month to carry a rapidly depreciating asset. Talk about financial burden and stress. I certainly don’t envy those in that position.

  81. R Says:

    SV Shopper, I agree with A. Lewis. Continue to rent for a year or two. You’ll save a couple grand a month. Not an insignificant amount. Prices are not going up any time soon, regardless of what your friendly realtor wants you to believe. If you run the numbers, I think you’ll see that it doesn’t make much sense to buy right now.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html

    I just punched in the numbers for my rental and even if real estate appreciates at 4% a year (and it will take a long time just to get to this number given current price drops for the foreseeable future and the change in attitudes regarding real estate as an investment) it never makes sense to buy. Assuming 5% appreciation, it takes 14 years to break-even. Not exactly a compelling argument to buy now.

  82. Pralay Says:

    There are a lot of owners pulling their homes off the market to rent them out.
    —-

    I posted this Craiglist add last week. You got to be wondering why the seller wants to trap renter into purchase commitment.

    This one is for sale. From the picture it looks like same thing is listed in craiglist for rent. If seems the seller is getting neither a buyer nor a renter.

  83. SiO2 Says:

    SV Shopper is facing the same as I did.

    - Want top schools.

    - Prefers to own. I agree that renting is financially better for the next few years. But, I also dislike moving – I still have boxes lying around from my move a few months back. And with kids in school, moving is disruptive (although not a disaster of course.) So renting and moving every few years would be cheaper but not as desirable to me. For others the tradeoff is different.

    - Doesnt want a crapshack.

    So it gets limited. Prices are certainly down in these kind of places from 07-08. But seems flat since March 09.

    The only advice I can offer is to check out private schools. If you have 1 child, the private school can be cheaper than the premium for top schools. With 2 it’s not clear cut.

  84. zanon Says:

    A $1.6M tear down (4225 Manuela Ave) just sold for $1.6M and is available for rent on Craigslist for $3K.

    That’s -$4K/mo in burn right there assuming they can rent it for $3K. I saw the inside and it’s awful: mold, rust, stains, and cracks. It was a long term rental to a school teacher before the sale.

    I rent a much nicer, comparable home nearby and pay significantly less.

    SiO2: Why don’t you just rent in the school district you want to own in? Kids go to the schools you want, and then when you buy, there will be much less disruption.

  85. A. Lewis Says:

    Well of course you, he (and me) prefer to own vs. renting, but not at unlimited cost. Whole point of this blog, IMHO.

    The negatives of renting are a valid driver of increased costs to own vs. rent. Just not infinite ones!

    So, SV Shopper, I don’t suggest renting because it’s incredibly great compared to owning, but because at the current price differentials, it’s a valid choice to make for one’s family.

    And maybe you can find a great rental easier than a great price on an RBA home. I seem to have settled into a great rental after 2 mediocre ones (and yes, my family and I hated moving 3 times in 5 years, too).

    Current place has no price increase for 20 months and counting, takes care of maintenance including replacing a fence and putting in new garage door, allows me to garden and landscape the yards while paying for materials, doesn’t bug us, and I don’t worry about holding the note, paying off a $1M mortgage, or the value of the house rising and falling.

    I know my spouse would lose serious sleep at night if we bought this year, worrying about if we overpaid, and what if job loss hits us, or getting sick.

    As renters, if I lose my job in a falling housing market, it’s bad, but we could move into a cheaper, smaller rental, or double-up with family, without at the same time going bankrupt and foreclosing.

    This is happening to some neighbors and friends, and I don’t envy them their brief joy of BA homeownership between 02-08. It wasn’t worth it.

    They clearly would have been better off renting, and so am I.

    I am watching the market in the school districts I’m interested in (including the great one I’m in now – if it can withstand the CA budget crisis), and if prices drop enough, it will be worth buying. My kids will not change schools, and hopefully I’ll move less than a mile from where I’m at right now.

    But I’m not going to buy at a price I can’t sleep well at night with. No way.

  86. steve Says:

    I’ve probably seen 200 houses in person over the past 18 months priced between $1.2M and $2.2M. I’ve looked in Los Altos, Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, RWC, Woodside and San Carlos. of the 200, maybe I’ve seen 10 I liked and thought were well priced. I extended offers (above list) on 2 and didn’t get the houses. so, as folks who have been reading my comments know, I think prices are headed down, I think renting makes sense for many folks, I think supplies are at record levels (for this area), and I worry that an interest rate spike will crush whatever is left of the market in a year or two or three. however, it is still damn hard to buy a decent house for $1.5M. now, if you are willing to go over $2M, choices are getting much better, but there still aren’t a ton of options.

    if you want to buy, and the right house comes along, your only choice right now is to follow SiO2′s lead and grab it — assuming you can afford it and plan to stay a while.

  87. SV Shopper Says:

    PA-S, the links you show break all of my criteria. I can’t live in a 950 sq. ft. 2/1 on a 4500 lot. I won’t touch that home on 1385 College Ave at any price, let alone 989K!

  88. DreamT Says:

    steve – I would have thought that people as picky as you would just buy the land and build…? It could be several more years until you strike, at this pace.

  89. SV Shopper Says:

    A. Lewis – I’m well past the rent vs. buy debate. Personally I think waiting will only give me an incremental benefit, but that’s not the real point. I need a place for the family to call home. Life is short and we can’t keep waiting. You are predicting a certain kind of future, but things can also turn out differently. I actually think you should go out and shop instead of just “watch”, because then you’ll appreciate how stubborn the market is. It might even change your mind about waiting.

  90. Pralay Says:

    I actually think you should go out and shop instead of just “watch”, because then you’ll appreciate how stubborn the market is.
    —–

    “Pulse of the market”, baby, pulse of the market.

  91. Pralay Says:

    You are predicting a certain kind of future, but things can also turn out differently.
    —-

    That’s right, A Lewis. Things can turn out differently. So don’t think and do all kind of “precision calculations”. Just buy something.

  92. Pralay Says:

    Life is short and we can’t keep waiting.
    —–

    I agree, “life is short to be renting”.

  93. Pralay Says:

    It might even change your mind about waiting.
    —-

    Lewis, I understand you don’t want to buy a car now. But come to by dealership anyway. You might even change your mind and buy a car from me.

    BTW, we serve free coffee…and cookie.

  94. SV Shopper Says:

    Pralay – Why do you constantly point to RE’s posts? You don’t seriously think I am him, do you? If so, just let me know. No need to beat around a bush. You are a joke anyways.

  95. Pralay Says:

    Why do you constantly point to RE’s posts?
    —-

    Come on! Do RealExcreter’s comments offend you?

  96. Pralay Says:

    so, as folks who have been reading my comments know, I think prices are headed down,
    —–

    But that’s just 20% “real drop” – icing on cake. No need to be overly dramatic.

  97. SV Shopper Says:

    Pralay – Why should I care what RealExcreter said? I have my own opinions based on my own experiences. You should not care either, because we are all entitled to our opinions.

  98. Pralay Says:

    :) Yes, we are all entitled to our opinions……and providing relevant link that fits.

  99. SV Shopper Says:

    Providing a link is not expressing your opinion, but showing someone else’s opinion. I think you know that.

  100. Pralay Says:

    Ah! That’s such a RealExcreterish logic (although you are trying your best not to sound so). There is an “and” before “providing relevant link…”

  101. Pralay Says:

    One more Palo Alto property that has neither buyer nor renter – 602 CHIMALUS Dr. The flipper bought the lot for $1.1M in 2007. In market from December (price reduced from $1.9M to $1.6M).

    Now the flipper put it up as rental in craiglist – for $6995 per month.

  102. Herve Estater Says:

    > $6995 per month

    Can someone confirm the price with Kwan Sung? I’m sure it’s a typo, it’s too good to be true.

    It looks like the phone number in the ad is the Korean hotline one.

  103. anon Says:

    Lol RE 602 Chimalus – What a fucking tool.

    6995/month for 2k sqft. I don’t know whether to laugh or call em up and harass them.

    I think I’ll do both.

  104. Herve Estater Says:

    > I finally got enough dough saved up to buy in the low million range

    > Minimal standard is 1500 sq. ft. 3/2 in a top school district

    Can someone pralay the comments made by Renter4 a while back? It sounds familiar…

  105. DreamT Says:

    I wouldn’t mind getting paid $6995/month to live in that place. It does sound like a deal. Hope not too much gardening is required.

  106. Herve Estater Says:

    From the Korean hotline link above:

    We specialize in helping clients with their real estate needs and financial difficulties. We offer residential and commercial property management services in the greater Milpitas area. Our experienced team can help evaluate the market condition of your property and help you secure a qualified tenant and address any maintenance or repair issues you might have with your investment. Out goal is to take the headache out of property ownership.

  107. anon Says:

    Headache? HEADACHE?!?!?

    There’s no headache, you goofy bastard!

    There is only benefits.

  108. Pralay Says:

    Can someone pralay the comments made by Renter4 a while back? It sounds familiar…
    —-

    Come on! I remember Renter4. She would not make such command. There is only one guy who keeps bragging about “top school district” of Palo Alto.

  109. Pralay Says:

    I wouldn’t mind getting paid $6995/month to live in that place. It does sound like a deal. Hope not too much gardening is required.
    —-

    Provided the flipper is able to pay mortgage on time.

  110. DreamT Says:

    mortgage? The mortgage isn’t going to take care of the garden or respond on craigslist!

  111. anon Says:

    Why would a homeowner pay a mortgage anyway?

    Must be one of those silly first time home buyers…

  112. Pralay Says:

    Ooops, yes the flipper is foreigner with cash. No mortgage.

  113. Pralay Says:

    mortgage? The mortgage isn’t going to take care of the garden or respond on craigslist!
    —-

    Actually I was talking about danger of this “deal” – getting eviction notice as a result of flipper’s failure to pay mortgage.

  114. burbed Says:

    Hey SV Shopper,

    I wonder if your expectations are too high. Since you’re from NY (our sworn enemy…) you’re probably used to houses in New Jersey with their good schools.

    This is the Real Bay Area. You simply can’t compare the two. Everything here is obviously better even when it is not.

    It’ll make sense soon. But welcome to the Bay Area. I hope you enjoy our Madison Ave: El Camino Real!

  115. sv_newbie Says:

    About schools. I know things are different for different people, but the question I am going to ask is for average, so please keep that in mind. Think stereotype S/W coder making average salary with high emphasis on education etc.

    * What is average $$ you spend per kid on private shcool? in elementary school? in middle? in high?

    * What is average $$ you spend per kid on day-care if you use public school?

    * What is minimum API you consider is needed for sending kid to public elemenatry school?

    * Are there any significant differences to answers to these questions for Asians?

    For example, a nice house with Sutter school (API 860) in SC sells for $650k. A cr*p with CUSD sells for $880k.

    If it’s due to school, it should have a precise $$ value.

  116. Pralay Says:

    I hope you enjoy our Madison Ave: El Camino Real!
    —-

    Don’t be so silly, Burbed! El Camino is older than Madison. Madison Ave IS the El Camino of “Manhatten”.

  117. anon Says:

    Yes, SV shopper – your standards are too high.

    If you don’t want to pay a million dollars for 2k sqft, you’ll just have to leave!

  118. DreamT Says:

    sv_newbie – You’re exaggerating. SC CUSD “crap” sells for $650k while equivalent Sutter “crap” can be found for $500k. I could give you three recent (past year) examples including a foreclosure. Historically the premium has been under $100k from what I’ve observed, but since prices are stickier in the CUSD area the premium may have increased to possibly $150k recently, but I wager that’s temporary.

  119. Pralay Says:

    Since you’re from NY (our sworn enemy…) you’re probably used to houses in New Jersey with their good schools.
    —–

    Hey Burbed, please don’t insult people from “Manhatten”. He already mentioned in #43 that he used to own an apartment in NY. Ranch house in New Jersey simply doesn’t have that kind of “specialness” of 2 bedroom apartment in “Manhatten”.

  120. anon Says:

    Lol – I forgot that real estater would call other people amateurs.

    That was funny.

  121. nomadic Says:

    True Pralay: saying “Manhatten” is in New Jersey is like saying Palo Alto is in San Jose…

  122. Pralay Says:

    saying Palo Alto is in San Jose…
    —-

    Or saying Palo Alto is in Atherton.

  123. SV Shopper Says:

    sv newbie – Wife says API score should be a minimum of 900.

    burbed – I do miss Madison Ave., but I’m happy in the Bay Area. The weather can’t be beat, and you can get a bigger place for the same money.

    Pralay – Which hood are you from?

  124. no estater Says:

    check this out – on a listing that shouts “great investment:”

    I have two units at the Los Gatos School Dist. area both leased and with $200.00negative cashflow a month only.

    with $90k you can buy subject to existing loan that is a fixed rate for 4 more years.

    or with $45K become my partner of about 50% ownership.

    Please know I am very sophisticated myself.

    http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/reo/1294075824.html

    Only $200/month negative cash flow! Jump in now before this “sophisticated” guy comes to his senses.

  125. no estater Says:

    (oops, started the italics one paragraph too late…)

  126. Pralay Says:

    I do miss Madison Ave.
    —-

    LOL! I understand a “Manhatten” guy could miss Greenwich Village or East Village or Central Park or battery Park or street food or broadway or sunway stations or SOHO or NOHO or any other hang out pace. I am curious how exacly “Manhatten” person “misses” Madison Ave, unless he/she is NYC cab driver (or possibly works in advertising industry).

  127. Pralay Says:

    Please know I am very sophisticated myself.
    ——

    I think he is trying to balance negative cashflow with some sophistication.

  128. Herve Estater Says:

    One more Craigslist ad for the rite investor: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/reo/1292247360.html

  129. Pralay Says:

    Wife says API score should be a minimum of 900.
    —–

    Wife said. :)

    In the absence of real RealEstater, SV Shopper is definitely filling the slot to entertain us.

  130. nomadic Says:

    Too bad he didn’t say “trophy wife.” That Madison Ave. crack didn’t sink in until I started to read #126. Maybe the shops on 5th Avenue moved? ;-)

  131. Pralay Says:

    LOL Herve! The addvertisement says:

    I am in a position to unload properties and make fellow investor and myself a great deal of money.

    He is going to unload his shits, and you are going to make money out of it. Why miss that opportunity!

  132. Pralay Says:

    Too bad he didn’t say “trophy wife.”
    —-

    Well, he is only here for three years and living as “rentard”. He definitely didn’t achieve the class of real RealEstater. Not yet. I am sure he never signed a NDS for a mega-project either.

  133. SV Shopper Says:

    nomadic and Pralay – My reference to Madison Ave. was in response to #114 (by Burbed). Where is your sense of humour?

  134. nomadic Says:

    The origin wasn’t lost on me. Rather than humor, it seems it would be a bit of a non sequitur for a NYC native.

  135. Pralay Says:

    Where is your sense of humour?
    —–

    Just as SV Shopper misses Madison Ave, I always miss those non-American style spellings – like colour, humour. So I found atleast two burbed visitors who use same spelling – this guy (another example from same guy) and SV Shopper.

  136. SV Shopper Says:

    Pralay – Not going to go down a rat hole with you. You are quite absurd. Good night.

  137. nomadic Says:

    pwned!

    lol

  138. Pralay Says:

    Not going to go down a rat hole with you. You are quite absurd. Good night.
    —-

    Please, please don’t go. If you want, we can talk to real RealEstater and arrange some multi timezone conference call to India so that you can entertain us till 2AM. If that does not work out, Herve will arrange 2AM playdate to India for your kid. But please don’t go.

  139. anon Says:

    Ahh hahahahahahahha.

    I think we all have a sense of humoUr.

    And I think we all enjoy laughing at SV real estate(er) shopper.

  140. DreamT Says:

    pwned 2. I was mystified.

  141. DreamT Says:

    Pralay’s the king, I must say.

  142. anon Says:

    Indeed; hats off to him for ‘helping’ us all.

  143. SiO2 Says:

    SV Newbie,
    * What is average $$ you spend per kid on private shcool? in elementary school? in middle? in high?

    >> Secular elem/middle is around $12k or so. Excepting Harker which is about $22k. There’s not that many secular high schools and they are around $25k-$30k. Plus requests for donations and such. Religious elem schools are as low as $5k, high school (such as Valley Christian) is around $12k.

    * What is minimum API you consider is needed for sending kid to public elemenatry school?

    >> I’d say 850 or so. But also look at the whole district for things like clubs, activities, suspension rates, etc. You can find this in the school SARC (report card.)

  144. A. Lewis Says:

    #89 SV Shopper – you don’t make any sense.

    A. Lewis – I’m well past the rent vs. buy debate.

    What? Then what are you doing here? Where do you own property now – since you can’t seem to find what you want in SV? Statements like this, that attempt to vacate my entire argument via non-participation, are what made Pralay think you were RealEstater, or someone just like him.

    Personally I think waiting will only give me an incremental benefit

    Well now you just admitted there was a benefit. As I clearly stated, I didn’t say renting was a dream, but the appropriate interim solution for me, and I think for you.

    , but that’s not the real point. I need a place for the family to call home. Life is short and we can’t keep waiting. You are predicting a certain kind of future, but things can also turn out differently.

    My rental home is my family’s home. The previous family lived here for 30 years. Their kids grew up here, I find their ancient plastic toys buried in the yard as I re-do the landscaping. I suggest you make a similar life for yourself while searching for the perfect home to buy. Even if you bought, there is no guarantee you stay in the that home forever. My parents always owned homes, but they moved 3 times in 40 years, because of job & family reasons. They called each place a home, even if it was for only 7 years. You have no argument, except maybe to say it’s hard to find a stable rental. It’s not impossible.

    I actually think you should go out and shop instead of just “watch”, because then you’ll appreciate how stubborn the market is. It might even change your mind about waiting.

    You see this just sounds like pure Realtor-speak. C’mon – now you’re trying to sell me on buying in general. You’re trying to argue that the “market”, by which you mean the sellers, are so stubborn I should give up. Well I’m stubborn, too, and I’m the other half of the market – the buyers. They won’t meet my price, so they’ll have to come down.

    Why on earth would shopping more change my mind about waiting? Because I would miserably give up my dream of buying a place that was worth what I paid, and just over-pay? Please expand on this point.

    You really come across as someone with a vested interest. You’re not even interested in the same neighborhoods as me – I’m shopping in the East Bay, remember? Do you know anything about the market over here?

    And what I call ‘watching’ the market includes going to open-houses, and looking at prices, quality, location. You might call that shopping. I’m just not putting any bids down, and not wasting my time with mortgage brokers or real estate agents yet. I know how to calculate to within a few % what mortage I’d qualify for, and how to calculate a monthly payment, so I know my own price range, and I know the locations I’m interested in.

    I guess I could be participating more – I could be putting in low bids at the prices I would be willing to pay for these homes. But these are Marginal-RBA neighborhoods – I don’t think a bid 30 or 50% below asking is going to get taken, so why waste my (and their) time?

    And since I, too, am picky about just which neighborhoods I want to live in, it’s not like their are 100s of homes to look at. Only a few new listings each week, many of which are either too big or too small. I’m also waiting for the shadow inventory I mentioned to come on the market – and I’m very curious at what price.

    As I posted before – 3 people passed away or went into assisted living on my block and none of their homes are occupied or for sale yet. And the one across from me keeps dropping from it’s insane wishing price. In contrast, the house 1 block up the hill went pending in 5 days – can’t wait to find out the price and judge the strength of the market.

    Down the hill, a place went for $20k under-asking last month, and I thought the asking was consistent with slight drop from ’08 prices.

    So all-in-all, I think I’m taking a very reasonable approach to buying a home, as I’ve expounded on at length in the past here. You just want to dismiss renting out of hand – that’s absurd, unless you’re someone who makes their living off real estate commissions.

  145. nomadic Says:

    (or megaaaaa project boy)

  146. A. Lewis Says:

    Oh, and let me just repeat my main arguments against buying in the neighborhoods I’m interested in: the prices are too high, remaining too close to the peak of a bubble in real estate that is well understood (by me) as not being based on fundamental value; so the risk of being underwater in the future, and enduring financial catastrophe in a future crisis is a major deterrent to home-buying.

    Since rents are much lower, I am saving up money to buy every month, while my neighbors who own are at best treading water with their equity since approximately ’07.

    If I thought the homes were priced at value, I’d be willing to risk buying to get all the benefits of homeownership, and work towards the long-term $ payoffs of owning instead of renting. The risk is that if I can’t make the payments (job loss or other catastrophe), I would have to sell the home. If I could sell it and break even considering everything, or at least come close, that’s acceptable vs. renting.

    If not, it’s not. Right now the prices say: NO!

    Everyone else is either not doing the math, or engaging in real estate speculation. Good luck to them – I just judge the market differently.

    If I had free money to waste on this sort of thing, I would put money into the new Price Index you can trade like a stock, based on the Case-Shiller data – there are two versions, so you can buy and bet it will go up or down. I’m betting it will go down, especially from May’s non-seasonally-adjusted rise from April. November ’09 will be a bitch for the C-S index. There’s my bold prediction.

  147. Pralay Says:

    #89 SV Shopper – you don’t make any sense.
    —-

    LOL! Lewis, you wrote such along post to reply to RealEstater!! Of course he does not make sense in lots of things (remember his famous AMT problem?) – even if he changed his name from RealEstater to SV Shopper.

  148. A. Lewis Says:

    Hey, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt he’s not RealEstater. I’ll engage anyone in substantive discussion. I welcome a productive debate, where people constructively criticize points, bring evidence, are thoughtful, etc. I hope SV Shopper rises to the occasion, and if he can refute my points, more power to him (or her).

  149. Pralay Says:

    Hey, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt he’s not RealEstater. I’ll engage anyone in substantive discussion.
    —-

    And have sense of humoUr too.

  150. A. Lewis Says:

    let’s do some back of the envelope private school math.

    K-8 annual price per child (2009 dollars): $12k (???)
    9-12 annual price per child (2009 dollars): $25k (???)

    13 year total per child: $208k. In 2009 dollars only. Without additional daycare (maybe included for private K-8? I really don’t know – is it included?).

    Public school-affiliated childcare rate I got last year: $7/hr/child. Depends on how many hours you need.

    If your K class is only 3.5 hours a day, and you need to be free of the kids for 10 hours to commute to work and get a full day in, you’d max out at 6.5 hours a day times 5 days a week = 32.5 hrs/week/child.

    School year is like 35 weeks after you take out vacations?

    32.5 hours * 35 weeks = 1,263.5 hours * $7/hr = $8,844.50/child/year. Some places charge much more. This is for the K-year, you don’t need this much daycare every year.

    Maybe you have 6 hour kindergarten or school day, and can come early 2 days a week, and need only 12 hrs/week/child of daycare.

    12 hrs * 35 weeks * $7/hr = $3k/child/yr

    Take $9k for the K year, $3k for grades 1-5, and you have = $24k/child total. And they can take care of themselves in the afternoon from 6th grade on? Seems plausible.

    Obviously, many ways to get around paying for childcare (grandma babysits) and many ways to pay much more (super-nanny costs a lot more than $7/hr)!

    If you have 2 or 3 kids, you’re looking at very serious money, right? Often you can get a 2nd child discount, between 5-20% depending on the school.

    For 3 kids, a nanny starts making lots more sense.

    Hope that helps.

    So, if you have the median 2 kids around here, $208k x 2 = $416k for private school. In ’09 dollar estimates. Not including any extra daycare.

    So if you like the neighborhood with crappy schools next door to the one with good schools, should you automatically take it for any price differential greater than $416k?

    Well, those great schools take some money as well. I estimated $24k in child-care x2 = $48k. And then how much do you donate as an upper-middle class parent to this school? $2k/yr/child for 13 years? That’s $52k. Half that? Double-that after you get drunk every year at the school auction and bid wildly on children’s art-work and high-class chefs to cook a catered meal at your home for 10 people?

    So $48k in childcare + $25k to $100k in doncations.

    Subtract About $75k to $150k from the $416k for private. The net premium for good schools is now $340k to $266k. For 2 kids.

    For 3 kids – wow. For 1 kid – not so much.

    Interesting, I never calc’ed it out this far before. It argues for a pretty high premium on the schools.

    Which is what I was saying was the final pillars in fortress-RBA. So if those schools really are that much better, you’ve got that going for your home prices…if the schools falter…watch out home prices…

  151. Pralay Says:

    Why on earth would shopping more change my mind about waiting? Because I would miserably give up my dream of buying a place that was worth what I paid, and just over-pay? Please expand on this point.
    —-

    Explained in #93. From car salesman’s viewpoint the first step of selling car – convincing the potential buyers to come dealership and have test drive.

  152. mike Says:

    > Why am I having a feeling that although
    > you changed your screen-name but somehow your
    > logical reasoning didn’t change accordingly?

    SV Shopper and RE are the same person.
    That’s my bet.

    The incredibly retarded comments coming from two different user IDs is too much to be a coincidence.

  153. Pralay Says:

    And don’t forget that they both spell “humour”.

  154. mike Says:

    Just finished reading the entire thread…

    Damn you Pralay! You called Realtard out better than I ever could /shakesfist

  155. steve Says:

    burbed could settle this easily, and would, I suspect, if RE and SV were posting from the same IP addresses.

  156. anon Says:

    Doubt it.

    No matter. No verification is necessary – RE’s lack of intelligence is patently obvious in both postings…

  157. Pralay Says:

    IP spoofing is very easy game. Just google it. Apart from spoofing, to get different IP address all you need is one of those free AOL dial-up CDs (or any other dialup connection). Different carrier, different IP.

    And apart from that, in my neighborhood there is atleast one wireless router without any password protection. :)

  158. nomadic Says:

    IP spoofing is very easy game.

    But is it easy for an “average tech guy” with sub-par intelligence?

  159. Pralay Says:

    Well, if he has any roommate, he could help him.

  160. A. Lewis Says:

    Short post.

  161. A. Lewis Says:

    Just to show you I could do

  162. A. Lewis Says:

    it

  163. A. Lewis Says:

    .

  164. DreamT Says:

    spammist

  165. anon Says:

    Lol – SV shopper is RE.

  166. SiO2 Says:

    A.,
    nice analysis of private school costs.

    Due to the seemingly random nature of school district boundaries, we can see evidence of private school costs affecting home prices.

    Case 1. Los Gatos. Covered by LG, Union, Campbell. The area around blossom hill road and LG blvd (just to the east) is split. West is LG. East is Union. Good but not LG. The price difference for similar houses is around $100-$150k. The neighborhoods look the same, you really can’t tell as you drive down the street.

    Case 2. Saratoga. Covered by Saratoga, Moreland, CUSD. The area north of Cox and east of 85 is covered by CUSD & Moreland. Again, the same street can have neighbors with different schools. Price difference is about $150k.

    If anything the price gap is increasing; the top school district areas seem to have fallen less than the others. It’s really hard to get the data as there’s no Case-Shiller by school district, but just from looking at what’s for sale. And with the cuts coming out of Sacramento, basic aid districts like Los Altos and Los Gatos will suffer less than revenue limit districts. And even among revenue limit districts, I’ll bet places like CUSD can increase the “recommended donation”, which places like Union, SJ Unified, or East Side don’t have.

  167. nomadic Says:

    Pralay – more likely they (RE & A.) are opposite sides of the same coin. But not the same person.

    SiO2 – FYI, Union is also a basic aid district. But you are correct that prices of houses in the district are definitely less expensive than LG schools, and prices have fallen a bit more there.

  168. DreamT Says:

    let’s coin them coinmates

  169. nomadic Says:

    lol – that works. both as “coinmates” and “co-inmates”

  170. Herve Estater Says:

    This is off-topic, but I really like the picture they chose for a $2.4M house…

  171. nomadic Says:

    90 sf plan??? Did you post that on Craigslist to amuse us?
    :-)

  172. Pralay Says:

    Point to note that #167 and #168 are not posted by me. I will let Burbed to figure this out.

  173. nomadic Says:

    Then 153 probably wasn’t you either… ?

  174. Pralay Says:

    #153 is posted by me. I think I mistyped email id while posting that one.

  175. burbed Says:

    Posts not posted by Pralay were removed.

    I’ll keep the IP address of those two posts in memory.

  176. Andy Paul Says:

    In many sections of the housing market we are seeing multiple offer and price bidding on bank owned properties. This is usually the first sign that the market has hit bottom and prices are beginning to stabilize. Waiting on the fence for better pricing might mean that you miss the bottom of the market and great deals on “quality” foreclosures. There is a tool which finds best places to invest, identifies properties with the most value & will let you know if the property is really worth buying. Make appropriate use of these tools before final analysis as the tag price of the foreclosed homes for sale is still way less than the amount it could have been.

  177. A. Lewis Says:

    Ouch, I don’t like to think of myself as the other side of RE’s coin. That seems like a serious insult you laid on me :-(

    The co-inmates thing is funny, though.

    Actually, I live in a trailer in Minnesota, and it’s next to RE’s. We start goin’ crazy out there at the lake (name the movie reference!), and we post to Burbed to annoy you.

    Pralay, you can call me a liar if you want. What did I lie about? :-)

    Everything I say is true. The preceding statement was false.

  178. Pralay Says:

    Pralay, you can call me a liar if you want. What did I lie about?
    ——-

    Not by me. Explained in #175.

  179. anon Says:

    Andy Paul, thanks for the great advice!

    with words like “quality foreclosures” and “way less than the amount it could have been,” I like your reasoning!

  180. zanon Says:

    Andy Paul: By “many sections” you mean “low end”, and that is getting bids now because it is cash flow positive through massive price declines.

    Unfortunately, lower prices and REO means there are no move-up buyers. No one can afford a $1.5M crap shack without the appreciation from East Bay to roll into that, and it is not there.

    The first crash was low end.

    Next crash will be mid-high end.

  181. Pralay Says:

    This is usually the first sign that the market has hit bottom and prices are beginning to stabilize.
    —–

    It seems there is no shortage of bottom-callers based on “first signs”.

    Today weather is great! I guess that’s a “first sign” of market hitting bottom too.

  182. steve Says:

    If anything the price gap is increasing; the top school district areas seem to have fallen less than the others.

    very true. for once, the input of a real estate professional would be welcome, but my sense is that only buyers right now are folks with children, further emphasizing the value of k-8 and k-12 schools as well as family friendly neighborhoods.

  183. zanon Says:

    STEVE: Which areas? Most house purchasing right now is in the areas hit hardest by crashing prices. It’s first time buyers and investors picking up cash flow positive properties (buying is cheaper than renting).

    This does not describe RBA at all. In fact, RBA is the opposite.

    Prices in top school districts are holding up because there are no transactions.

  184. steve Says:

    palo alto, central menlo, noe valley

    granted, these are very well-heeled buyers. the classic bay area couple. dual income, first child in the late 30s. they are extremely focused on the right street, the right neighborhood, the right school and are not that price sensitive. for whatever reason, they don’t view los altos or san carlos as acceptable substitutes.

  185. Real Estater Says:

    SV Shopper,

    Don’t bother with Pralay. Stick with positive people instead.

    Are you open to Los Altos? This property seems like a good buy if you don’t mind remodeling. It’s the only one in all of Los Altos that meets your criteria.

  186. Let’s revisit 602 CHIMALUS Dr | Burbed.com Says:

    [...] Now this house was mentioned before – let’s take a look at the way back machine… July 24 2009 [...]


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