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	<title>Comments on: Great opportunity to build in Old Palo Alto</title>
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	<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/</link>
	<description>San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley House Price and Mortgage Insanity Blog</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:07:13 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: bob</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40171</link>
		<dc:creator>bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Nov 2009 17:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40171</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Ever wondered why so many people put their money on the line to buy a house during a recession? Hint: It’s not because buying a house is an expense.&lt;/i&gt;

 Actually, a lot less people do so because:

A: They are losing their jobs
B: Houses are no longer increasing in value ( except for the trash at the bottom- aka- ghettoloand areas)
C: Rent also goes down in cost.
D: In this market credit is tight.

 Lastly, I&#039;ll agree that there are some people buying now. Those people are generally stupid. Its not like they&#039;re getting great deals since the prices are still high in most nicer areas.

 And once more, you lack general investment knowledge. Like I&#039;ve said countless times before, Stocks will beat the living crap out of real estate every time and it has done so for over 100 years. Generally stocks outperform real estate almost double. But you don&#039;t have to believe me even though my investments even in this economy are actually doing quite well.

 Lastly- if the only game you have is a house you bought in 2003, then you&#039;re not actually that wise on an investor. You didn&#039;t buy at the peak, but you bought well into bubble territory. If anything, you might be up a little. Hardly worth all the hoopla you&#039;ve made about it. If anything you&#039;re more of a over exaggerated simpleton. Whoopie! You &quot;Own&quot; a house! Not really. You are &quot;paying&quot; for a house the bank owns until its paid off. My future house will be bought and paid for years before you come even close, it will be in an area with more positive growth and appreciation ( its still appreciating) and on top of that, I&#039;ll have all my investments in place.

So you can keep on telling us what a genius you are just because you were like all the other uneducated lemmings buying houses in the Bay Area during a bubble. Frankly, I don&#039;t think many are buying it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Ever wondered why so many people put their money on the line to buy a house during a recession? Hint: It’s not because buying a house is an expense.</i></p>
<p> Actually, a lot less people do so because:</p>
<p>A: They are losing their jobs<br />
B: Houses are no longer increasing in value ( except for the trash at the bottom- aka- ghettoloand areas)<br />
C: Rent also goes down in cost.<br />
D: In this market credit is tight.</p>
<p> Lastly, I&#8217;ll agree that there are some people buying now. Those people are generally stupid. Its not like they&#8217;re getting great deals since the prices are still high in most nicer areas.</p>
<p> And once more, you lack general investment knowledge. Like I&#8217;ve said countless times before, Stocks will beat the living crap out of real estate every time and it has done so for over 100 years. Generally stocks outperform real estate almost double. But you don&#8217;t have to believe me even though my investments even in this economy are actually doing quite well.</p>
<p> Lastly- if the only game you have is a house you bought in 2003, then you&#8217;re not actually that wise on an investor. You didn&#8217;t buy at the peak, but you bought well into bubble territory. If anything, you might be up a little. Hardly worth all the hoopla you&#8217;ve made about it. If anything you&#8217;re more of a over exaggerated simpleton. Whoopie! You &#8220;Own&#8221; a house! Not really. You are &#8220;paying&#8221; for a house the bank owns until its paid off. My future house will be bought and paid for years before you come even close, it will be in an area with more positive growth and appreciation ( its still appreciating) and on top of that, I&#8217;ll have all my investments in place.</p>
<p>So you can keep on telling us what a genius you are just because you were like all the other uneducated lemmings buying houses in the Bay Area during a bubble. Frankly, I don&#8217;t think many are buying it.</p>
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		<title>By: zanon</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40170</link>
		<dc:creator>zanon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Nov 2009 07:06:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40170</guid>
		<description>RBA is still massively cash flow negative (by definition). But I think there&#039;s been enough appreciation so that a 2003 buyer is still ahead.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RBA is still massively cash flow negative (by definition). But I think there&#8217;s been enough appreciation so that a 2003 buyer is still ahead.</p>
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		<title>By: Pralay</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40169</link>
		<dc:creator>Pralay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40169</guid>
		<description>Finally, let&#039;s search craiglist to find out what rents in Palo Alto with $4500+ rental price.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1479569020.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;1010 Waverley St&lt;/a&gt;: &quot;Historic Birge Clark home built in 1922. 4 bedrooms, 3 and a half bath&quot;. Rent price $5000. This one on sale for $1.95M.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482246809.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Everett Ave&lt;/a&gt;. 3BR, 2.5BA. Rent price $4900.

Did this kind of properties sell for $860K (or $900K) in 2003, FakeEstater?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Finally, let&#8217;s search craiglist to find out what rents in Palo Alto with $4500+ rental price.</p>
<p><a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1479569020.html" rel="nofollow">1010 Waverley St</a>: &#8220;Historic Birge Clark home built in 1922. 4 bedrooms, 3 and a half bath&#8221;. Rent price $5000. This one on sale for $1.95M.</p>
<p><a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482246809.html" rel="nofollow">Everett Ave</a>. 3BR, 2.5BA. Rent price $4900.</p>
<p>Did this kind of properties sell for $860K (or $900K) in 2003, FakeEstater?</p>
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		<title>By: Pralay</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40168</link>
		<dc:creator>Pralay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:31:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40168</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;I bought my home in 2003, and I can easily rent it out today for my monthly mortgage payment.&lt;/i&gt;
-----

Ok, let&#039;s try to verify what our FakeEstater is claiming. I am assuming he bought a sub-million home in 94301 in 2003 with 5.5% interest rate. This comparison is not exact, but provides some idea.


I googled and found this &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.paweekly.com/weekly/morgue/2003/2003_10_31.sales31.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;home sale record&lt;/a&gt; online.  There is no sub-million sale in 94301 in this list. The closest one I found in 94303 zipcode - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3948-Bibbits-Dr-Palo-Alto-CA-94303/19498872_zpid/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;3948 Bibbit Dr&lt;/a&gt;. 3BD, 2BA, 1421sqft. Sold in 2003 for $860K. Zestimate $1.1M.
Assuming $160K downpayment and 5.5% rate, it makes roughly $4600K+ monthly mortgage payment.

Let&#039;s check how much equivalent properties in Palo Alto are renting nowadays.
&lt;a href=&quot;http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482540268.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;2557 Ross Road&lt;/a&gt; in same zipcode. 1414 sqft, 3BD, 1BA. Zestimate $1.1M. Rent $3125. If it was 2BA, probably the rent would have been $200 higher.

This one in South Palo Alto - &lt;a href=&quot;http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482352619.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;422 Carolina Lane&lt;/a&gt;. 4BD, 2BA, 1527 sqft. Rent $3600. The rental ad says &quot;new furniture and bedding/cooking tools can be provided FREE by landlord&quot;. Not bad! How much it would sell? Well, it is &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palo-Alto/422-Carolina-Ln-94306/home/893385&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;in market now&lt;/a&gt; - for $1.15M.

That means if FakeEstater bought this kind of properties in 2003, most likely he would be still cashflow negative with his $4600K+ mortgage payments (and I am not even counting the lost investment opportunity of his $160K downpayment). Ok, he is in prestigious zipcode. Slap $100-$500 on rental price for it - depending on location and condition of property. Still cashflow negative - AFTER SIX YEARS. No wonder he is having hard time to find his &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.burbed.com/2008/08/14/good-news-bad-news-for-real-estate-in-silicon-valley/#comment-24125&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;sweet spot&lt;/a&gt;&quot;.

(cont in next comment)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>I bought my home in 2003, and I can easily rent it out today for my monthly mortgage payment.</i><br />
&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Ok, let&#8217;s try to verify what our FakeEstater is claiming. I am assuming he bought a sub-million home in 94301 in 2003 with 5.5% interest rate. This comparison is not exact, but provides some idea.</p>
<p>I googled and found this <a href="http://www.paweekly.com/weekly/morgue/2003/2003_10_31.sales31.html" rel="nofollow">home sale record</a> online.  There is no sub-million sale in 94301 in this list. The closest one I found in 94303 zipcode &#8211; <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3948-Bibbits-Dr-Palo-Alto-CA-94303/19498872_zpid/" rel="nofollow">3948 Bibbit Dr</a>. 3BD, 2BA, 1421sqft. Sold in 2003 for $860K. Zestimate $1.1M.<br />
Assuming $160K downpayment and 5.5% rate, it makes roughly $4600K+ monthly mortgage payment.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s check how much equivalent properties in Palo Alto are renting nowadays.<br />
<a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482540268.html" rel="nofollow">2557 Ross Road</a> in same zipcode. 1414 sqft, 3BD, 1BA. Zestimate $1.1M. Rent $3125. If it was 2BA, probably the rent would have been $200 higher.</p>
<p>This one in South Palo Alto &#8211; <a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/1482352619.html" rel="nofollow">422 Carolina Lane</a>. 4BD, 2BA, 1527 sqft. Rent $3600. The rental ad says &#8220;new furniture and bedding/cooking tools can be provided FREE by landlord&#8221;. Not bad! How much it would sell? Well, it is <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palo-Alto/422-Carolina-Ln-94306/home/893385" rel="nofollow">in market now</a> &#8211; for $1.15M.</p>
<p>That means if FakeEstater bought this kind of properties in 2003, most likely he would be still cashflow negative with his $4600K+ mortgage payments (and I am not even counting the lost investment opportunity of his $160K downpayment). Ok, he is in prestigious zipcode. Slap $100-$500 on rental price for it &#8211; depending on location and condition of property. Still cashflow negative &#8211; AFTER SIX YEARS. No wonder he is having hard time to find his &#8220;<a href="http://www.burbed.com/2008/08/14/good-news-bad-news-for-real-estate-in-silicon-valley/#comment-24125" rel="nofollow">sweet spot</a>&#8220;.</p>
<p>(cont in next comment)</p>
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		<title>By: anon</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40167</link>
		<dc:creator>anon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:56:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40167</guid>
		<description>Oh, and one more thing.  Is Warren Buffet an investor?  Guess how many homes he owns.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, and one more thing.  Is Warren Buffet an investor?  Guess how many homes he owns.</p>
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		<title>By: anon</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40166</link>
		<dc:creator>anon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:55:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40166</guid>
		<description>&quot;Imagine if you have Pralay or anon run a drug company. They would never put any money into R&amp;D, because a new drug may not get approved by the FDA for 10 or more years.&quot;

LOL - Did this idiot seriously liken R&amp;D expenses to a house?  Amazing.

Anyway, here&#039;s an on the ground report:  I&#039;m up in my north shore Tahoe cabin for the week and let me tell you - it&#039;s wonderfully quiet.  Places which would have been buzzing last year are virtually dead.  No lines anywhere and traffic is minimal - I sure am seeing signs of the recession up here.  And it&#039;s about time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Imagine if you have Pralay or anon run a drug company. They would never put any money into R&amp;D, because a new drug may not get approved by the FDA for 10 or more years.&#8221;</p>
<p>LOL &#8211; Did this idiot seriously liken R&amp;D expenses to a house?  Amazing.</p>
<p>Anyway, here&#8217;s an on the ground report:  I&#8217;m up in my north shore Tahoe cabin for the week and let me tell you &#8211; it&#8217;s wonderfully quiet.  Places which would have been buzzing last year are virtually dead.  No lines anywhere and traffic is minimal &#8211; I sure am seeing signs of the recession up here.  And it&#8217;s about time.</p>
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		<title>By: Pralay</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40165</link>
		<dc:creator>Pralay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40165</guid>
		<description>FakeEstater,
You question is wrong (because it is suggestive, non-factual and lacks details). And your hint it wrong too.

The correct hint would have been: falling knife.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>FakeEstater,<br />
You question is wrong (because it is suggestive, non-factual and lacks details). And your hint it wrong too.</p>
<p>The correct hint would have been: falling knife.</p>
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		<title>By: Real Estater</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40164</link>
		<dc:creator>Real Estater</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:12:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40164</guid>
		<description>Pralay/Bob,

Ever wondered why so many people put their money on the line to buy a house during a recession? Hint: It&#039;s not because buying a house is an expense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pralay/Bob,</p>
<p>Ever wondered why so many people put their money on the line to buy a house during a recession? Hint: It&#8217;s not because buying a house is an expense.</p>
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		<title>By: Pralay</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40163</link>
		<dc:creator>Pralay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:29:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40163</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;If the market was going down in Q4 2008, it must follow that trajectory into eternity, and home prices will be back to 1980 levels before you know it.&lt;/i&gt;
—–

And how could I forget &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.burbed.com/2008/10/10/whats-up-with-1950-mcnair-street-near-palo-alto/#comment-28313&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;FakeEstater&#039;s Q4 2008 comment&lt;/a&gt; about &quot;on-going party&quot;! After quoting several lines from Fall &#039;08 Real Estate Guide (you know who are the guys paid for this &quot;guide&quot;), sometimes quoting partial lines to bolster his point, he ends this comment wth following:
&lt;blockquote&gt;
Basically everything I’ve been telling you guys is true. &lt;b&gt;There’s been an on-going party here. Why are you not joining?&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

:) What does FakeEstater sound like?
1. Smart real estate investor, an opportunist to grab properties in good price.
2. A desperate real estate agent looking for his commission.
3. A homeowner hoping to fund his retirement from the equity of his primary residence (if any equity remains at all).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>If the market was going down in Q4 2008, it must follow that trajectory into eternity, and home prices will be back to 1980 levels before you know it.</i><br />
—–</p>
<p>And how could I forget <a href="http://www.burbed.com/2008/10/10/whats-up-with-1950-mcnair-street-near-palo-alto/#comment-28313" rel="nofollow">FakeEstater&#8217;s Q4 2008 comment</a> about &#8220;on-going party&#8221;! After quoting several lines from Fall &#8217;08 Real Estate Guide (you know who are the guys paid for this &#8220;guide&#8221;), sometimes quoting partial lines to bolster his point, he ends this comment wth following:</p>
<blockquote><p>
Basically everything I’ve been telling you guys is true. <b>There’s been an on-going party here. Why are you not joining?</b></p></blockquote>
<p> <img src='http://www.burbed.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  What does FakeEstater sound like?<br />
1. Smart real estate investor, an opportunist to grab properties in good price.<br />
2. A desperate real estate agent looking for his commission.<br />
3. A homeowner hoping to fund his retirement from the equity of his primary residence (if any equity remains at all).</p>
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		<title>By: Pralay</title>
		<link>http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/25/great-opportunity-to-build-in-old-palo-alto/#comment-40162</link>
		<dc:creator>Pralay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:52:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.burbed.com/?p=4411#comment-40162</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;and he will jump up and down at anybody who tries to improve their situation by taking advantage of the right time to buy (e.g. SV Shopper).&lt;/i&gt;
-----

I am little hope on the improvement of SV &quot;wife-big-on-education&quot; Shopper&#039;s situation. This guy is &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/13/this-2-million-dollar-house-is-great-for-ants/#comment-53121&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;losing bid&lt;/a&gt; everyday. At least that&#039;s what he is claiming. I am waiting for another update from him saying he lost another bid (and another forecast &quot;price is going to be higher next year&quot;).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>and he will jump up and down at anybody who tries to improve their situation by taking advantage of the right time to buy (e.g. SV Shopper).</i><br />
&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>I am little hope on the improvement of SV &#8220;wife-big-on-education&#8221; Shopper&#8217;s situation. This guy is <a href="http://www.burbed.com/2009/11/13/this-2-million-dollar-house-is-great-for-ants/#comment-53121" rel="nofollow">losing bid</a> everyday. At least that&#8217;s what he is claiming. I am waiting for another update from him saying he lost another bid (and another forecast &#8220;price is going to be higher next year&#8221;).</p>
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