And now, a guest post from Madhaus. Pretty thought provoking!
Two Years Later, Who’s in the RBA Now!
Just about two years ago, burbed ran this post, picking up my comment predicting which Special places in the Bay Area were going to become a little less Special. Home prices in income-challenged regions of the Bay Area had been crashing for more than a year, and foreclosures were starting to mount in far-flung exurbs such as Stockton (and closer ones such as Gilroy). But most in the Real Bay Area thought they were immune from the oncoming tide of equity retreat.
With my battle cry of “Here’s my prediction of which areas will be removed from the RBA next, in order, with RBA defined as ‘where prices never go down,’” I invite you to Real Bay Area, Then and Now!
And the surprising conclusion? Only ONE ZIP CODE remains in the RBA. That’s right. ONE. And it’s in Palo Alto!
td valign=”top” width=”108″>565
|Locale||2008 $/sf||2010 $/sf||Annual % change|
|West Redwood City 94062||$576||$499||-6.9%|
|S. Santa Clara 95051Maywood Park/CUSD||$465$796k||$348
|South Sunnyvale 94087non-CUSD
|Central Mountain View 94040||573||550||-2.0%|
|South Mountain View 94041||644||572||-5.8%|
|Willow Glen 95125
|West San Jose CUSD 95129||567||485||-7.5%|
|Los Altos 94022||764||649||-7.8%|
|Cupertino 95014east of Bubb
west of Bubb
|Los Gatos 95032||572||457||-10.6%|
|Los Gatos 95030||719||603||-8.4%|
|West Menlo Park 94025
actual Redfin neighborhood
|Palo Alto 94303Midtown||706
|Palo Alto 94306||580||724||+11.7% (!)|
|Palo Alto 94301||907||801||-6.0%|
|Los Altos Hills 94024||739||647||-6.4%|
|Palo Alto 94304||1,070||771||-15.1%|
Zip code $/sf data from redfin, comparing April 14, 2008 with April 12, 2010 sales prices per square foot. If a neighborhood is unrepresentative (read: way more Special) of its ZIP code, I picked a house in the neighborhood and compared Zestimates for the beginning of May 2008 and 2010. Yes, completely unscientific and unrepresentative, but until Redfin lets me pick a neighborhood by school district, or pick a neighborhood that has a name they don’t want to acknowledge, tough.
Wasn’t that a surprise? The fairest ZIP code of them all is South Palo Alto. Who knew? South Palo Alto 94306 – up an incredible 11.7% annualized! Yes, scraping tiny homes off small lots and replacing them with McMansions pays off!
And let’s have a round of applause for our lovely runners-up, those areas that lost less than five percent annual value in the last two years. Yes, two years, so you have to more than double those percentages to figure out how much value the average house lost! Here they are, the lucky ducks!
- · Central Mountain View 94040 -2.0%
- · South Sunnyvale 94087 -4.1%
- · West Menlo Park 94025 -4.6%
Sorry North Mountain View (94043), you’re only down -3.3% a year, but you never were in the RBA in the first place.
Many predictions were made in 2008. Discuss.