August 31, 2010

Best Real Estate Blog for Where?

If you’ve managed to miss reading this site the last few weeks, you might have not have noticed that burbed was nominated for, and won, this award from Zillow:

There’s one problem.  It turns out there was also an award for Best Blog in San Jose Real Estate, and burbed wasn’t even nominated.  So that means we can’t discuss Palo Alto anymore. 

Good thing burbed reader AJT sent in this San Francisco property, along with a comment about walking by the place and then finding out it was for sale.  And even better, look what was listed two years ago, thanks to Herve:

image

Burbed reader Herve thought it would be good to point this unique property out. Apparently it’s been on the market 2 years ago for $75 million (really?).

In any case, it is now just at $48 million – another sure sign the real estate market has bottomed out and that it is now a great time to jump back in.

Just think, if you got a smart enough mortgage, you could easily buy this and get at least $22 million in instant equity. Wowsers!

What are you waiting for?

Wowsers!  If the price was cut from $75 million in 2006 to $48 million in 2008, then it should be down to $31 million in 2010, right?

2901 Broadway St, San Francisco, CA 94115
$45,000,000

image

BEDS: 7
BATHS: 7.5
SQ. FT.: –
LOT SIZE: –
PROPERTY TYPE: Detached, Single-Family Home
STYLE: Custom
VIEW: Panoramic, City Lights, Water, Bay, Bay Bridge, Golden Gate Bridge, San Francisco, Downtown, Marina, Ocean, Park, Garden/Greenbelt, Hills, Mt. Tamalpais, Twin Peaks
YEAR BUILT: 1927
COMMUNITY: Pacific Heights
COUNTY: San Francisco
MLS#: 322933
SOURCE: San Francisco MLS
STATUS: Active
ON REDFIN: 1226 days

Italian Renaissance hilltop mansion on the Gold Coast, near Presidio. Expansive Golden Gate & north Bay views from almost every room. Grand reception hall. Elegant formal rooms. Graceful marble stair leads to family level. 7 bedrooms, 7.5 baths. Master suites. Library. Music room. Office. Rec room. Elevator. Period details. Private winding drive. Garden. Private tennis court. 2007 San Francisco Decorator Showcase. Property history & floor plans on property and agent’s website.

$45 million?  Someone doesn’t understand that if the house won’t sale, your price is FAIL!

I want to look at that “Days on Redfin” number again while my eyes pop out.  1226!  You’d almost think they don’t care if they sell the house or not!  Perhaps the tenants are paying almost enough rent to cover the heating bill.

For the garage.

I’m sure the Assessor’s Office is keeping an eye on this one, as it only paid $7,000 in taxes last year.  To give you an idea how little that is, if you were to buy this house and put $9 million down, your 15 year fixed loan of $36 million would cost you $261,000.  A month.  And that’s assuming you could get the 3.75% mortgage rate Redfin helpfully put in for you.  Do you think you’d have to apply for a jumbo?

One last thing about this expensive, er, expansive, listing.  Here’s what Redfin has to say about the 2008 observation:

The seller has requested that all public comments be removed from this listing. Per MLS rules, we are not allowed to link to blog posts about this home.

Fortunately, we are.  Otherwise we’d have to keep following up on 13 Lucky Street.

Comments (71) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:01 am

71 Responses to “Best Real Estate Blog for Where?”

  1. maryjane Says:

    This house was used as a Decorator’s Showcase (Fundraiser!) a few years back. It has all the warmth of City Hall but it is a large property in an amazing location.

    I believe the owner grew up in the house and is conflicted about selling. She didn’t want certain things touched by the decorators and they couldn’t change the baths or even paint the laundry room – which has Golden Gate views, by the way. She didn’t want the decorators using the driveway so things had to be carried up the amazingly long flight of steps.

    I got the impression this was a ‘make me move’ type of price but whoever buys it will be taking on a massive renovation.

  2. Real Estater Says:

    The market is alternating between good and bad news. That’s why the Dow is oscillating around 10,000, just as I predicted earlier this year.

    Today’s news are on the good side:

    >>A surprise jump in consumer confidence gave stocks a lift.

    >>Prices of U.S. single-family homes gained more than expected in June and rose in the second quarter.

    From an investor’s perspective, it’s not about good news or bad news. It’s about knowing the behavior of the market.

  3. maryjane Says:

    >From an investor’s perspective, it’s not about good news or bad news. It’s about knowing the behavior of the market.

    You have to be very careful about the market at the end of August. It’s the biggest vacation period for Wall Streeters and the market is very thin. The people doing the trading right now are really just watching and not acting. The movers and shakers are all on Nantucket.

  4. Pralay Says:

    That’s why the Dow is oscillating around 10,000, just as I predicted earlier this year.
    —–

    :) This is not what you predicted earlier this year. You predicted….ready?
    Feb 9, 2010

    [Stock market] has nowhere to go but up right now.

    If your prediction was true, DOW would have been 13,000 already.

  5. Pralay Says:

    Prices of U.S. single-family homes gained more than expected in June and rose in the second quarter.
    —-

    Useless aggregate data.

  6. nomadic Says:

    …just as I predicted earlier this year.

    Don’t waste the key strokes. No one believes you and no one respects your opinion.

    Love the blue bedroom in today’s house; it would be like sleeping in an aquarium.

  7. SEA Says:

    How many people were lured into paying more based on:

    1. The income tax credit (generally $8k/$6.5k)
    2. So-called low interest rates (I’d really love to hear how the buyers determined the present value of the “cheap money,” haha)
    3. The thought that housing “has nowhere to go but up right now.”

    Let’s review:

    Some buyer buys what he thinks is a $95k home for $100k and gets an immediate $8k rebate from the IRS, and we call that a recovery?

    Buyers borrow at 3.75% on assets that are going down in value, and this is a good deal?

    Just think of all that “instant equity just add buyer…” Sweet, sweet equity, baby!

  8. mike Says:

    is RE just outright lying or is he a huge fool and believe that he says (in denial about his stupidity)?

    i can’t decide, probably a bit of both.

  9. madhaus Says:

    #1: Thanks for the backstory! Cool stuff about this white elephant.

    #6: Oh, all the sock puppets believe #2. It’s just about time for John to show up and chide the lot of you. I bet #2 (how appropriate) thinks he’s being oh so stealthy with that one. He’s about as convincing as a 3 year old wearing a hat, figuring nobody will penetrate his amazing disguise.

    But yeah, actual people reading this award-winning blog? None believes any of #2’s prattle.

  10. Gallileo Says:

    For whatever it’s worth, this house has been discussed ad-naseum on socketsite.com. It’s a beautiful but old house that will need massive renovation, but locations and details just don’t get better than this. Houses like this are just incredibly difficult to value.

    If you are looking for some laughs, consider this comment by the listing agent on socketsite:

    “A well informed buyer and all experienced agents will know the price range based upon comparable sales and listings in the neighborhood.”

    A “well-informed” listing agent would have an idea of what to ask instead of fishing.

    http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2006/09/if_you_have_to_ask_2901_broadway.html
    http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2007/03/your_chance_to_get_inside_2901_broadway.html
    http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2009/03/2901_broadway_a_3000000_reduction.html

  11. nomadic Says:

    If anyone wants to read about the origination of the house, the realtor has an interesting piece on her site:

    http://www.donacrowder.com/Template1/featurelist/ListInfoNew.asp?Id=144&OrderId=10780&Token=&UserType=&LanguageId=0

    The lot was originally owned by Herbert Hoover, and sold to a Stanford classmate. The house is currently owned by the daughter of the second owner.

  12. Faux Estater Says:

    Don’t waste the key strokes. No one believes you and no one respects your opinion.
    —-

    “Usual suspects” are as usual attacking me. They are losers, they are truly dense people. They don’t understand that I am THE HELPER of this blog, helping those “who need the most help”.

    BTW, I predicted death of this blog. Instead it got the best real estate blog of SF. Too bad!

    Loser blog. Loser “usual suspects”.

  13. bob Says:

    Prices of U.S. single-family homes gained more than expected in June and rose in the second quarter.

    yes… we all heard the exact same story driving to work this morning. Somehow you seem to have forgotten the rather blaring piece to those numbers which was mentioned in addition to the report in that the rise in prices was largely attributed to the now infamous government tax incentive. You also seem to be forgetting last week’s report showing homes sales- both existing and new homes- at record lows.

  14. Real Estater Says:

    Mike says,
    >>is RE just outright lying or is he a huge fool and believe that he says (in denial about his stupidity)?

    Actually, a better question is, are you a huge fool to fall for Pralay’s garbage remarks?

    My prediction about the Dow has been quoted at least a few times, like here and here. I was right all along.

  15. Petsmart groomer Says:

    Back in 2006 one could read:

    http://sfluxe.com/2006/09/20/75000000

    http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2006/09/21/pacific_heights_priceless.php

    Real Estater, good calls on the stock market. You are my favorite troll.

  16. Pralay Says:

    My prediction about the Dow has been quoted at least a few times, like here and here. I was right all along.
    —-

    Very very funny. Real Estater’s second link wasn’t posted by Real Estater. It is written by SEA. And what Real Estater has to say about it?

    You can say anything you want now and lay it on me.

    :)

  17. DreamT Says:

    “yes… we all heard the exact same story driving to work this morning.”

    I didn’t hear the exact same story, and for that matter I didn’t drive to work this morning either.
    Carry on…

  18. SEA Says:

    I’ll make the a similar prediction, but I’ll do it in a generalized format:

    The DOW will trade within 10% over the next few months. Since it’s near 10k today, that means 9k-11k.

    My guess, without looking back, is that my moving target generalization will be right often enough, even if I’m not sure if it’s going up or down.

    Real Estater, I thank you for the entertainment!

  19. Real Estater Says:

    Look at all you losers here. Since when is making the right call considered “trolling”?

    SEA, the point is , you did not make the call. Now you’re just doing the copycat thing. When the market went to 9000, the most likely call you (and Pralay) would make is that the sky is falling. Pralay in fact took that position during the financial crisis. The subsequent bounce took him by surprise and made him speechless. Don’t be a Pralay. The guy is an idiot, troll, loser. Never been right, and will always be renting. Gotta feel sorry for his non-trophy wife.

  20. DreamT Says:

    As far as I can tell, Real Estater’s predictions on the stock market gyrations have generally been well timed and accurate, certainly compared to anybody else’s on this board. Got to give the man his due even if it feeds his inferiority complex.

  21. Pralay Says:

    Don’t be a Pralay. The guy is an idiot, troll, loser. Never been right, and will always be renting. Gotta feel sorry for his non-trophy wife.
    —–

    Real Estater, good call. You are my favorite troll. :)

  22. Pralay Says:

    Got to give the man his due even if it feeds his inferiority complex.
    —–

    LOL!

  23. Pralay Says:

    I’ll make the a similar prediction, but I’ll do it in a generalized format:
    ——

    Inspired by Real Estater’s this prediction, I am making this prediction:

    First let me check today’s high temperature. 85 degree.

    Last month I said the tomorrow’s high temperature will be between 75 degree and 95 degree. This is exactly what’s happening, …..

    Please don’t ask me to provide the link prove when I said it “last month”.

  24. Pralay Says:

    The DOW will trade within 10% over the next few months. Since it’s near 10k today, that means 9k-11k.
    —-

    SEA,
    You don’t get the art of prediction. The first rule of prediction: You have to pretend that you predicted today’s condition in past. And today’s condition is the proof that your past prediction was right. For example:

    Last year I predicted that DOW will be 10,014 on Aug 31st 2010. This is exactly what happened today. Can you believe it!

  25. SEA Says:

    DreamT- In regards to Real Estater’s predictions, can you separate luck from skill? Also suggesting the DOW will trade between 9,000 and 11,000 when it’s currently at 10,000, and then taking credit for this great prediction?

    Reminds me of the guy who gave a 10% chance of rain, no matter the conditions. “The meteorology suggests that it rains about 10% of the days during the year. By giving a 10% chance, even on clear days, on average I will be right 100% of the time.”

  26. DreamT Says:

    SEA, the guy said a bit before October 08, sell it all. At 6,500, he said buy by all means. Back around 10k he said this won’t move for a while. I don’t think it’s skill or luck, just a great connect to someone else who has a clue.

  27. bob Says:

    “yes… we all heard the exact same story driving to work this morning.”

    I didn’t hear the exact same story, and for that matter I didn’t drive to work this morning either.
    Carry on…

    ….ohhhh kay…. but anyway, moving on, RE, the thing is that anyone can just as easily make themselves into a genius by making highly generalized statements about the stock market… like it will go up and down. Yes- of course that’s what is going to happen. The stock market is all about long term averages anyway so what it does from day to day isn’t important in the grand scheme of things. Over the last 100+ its average has been from 7-10% per year. All during that time it went up and down. Its about the simple effects of inflation. Simple.

  28. anon Says:

    but bob! if inflation is around 4% how does that explain the 7-10% average gain?

  29. DreamT Says:

    I agree with bob, stock trading is trivial and nobody ever got rich via day trading. In fact day trading is an oxymoron. Don’t buy stocks unless you mean to hold them for 100 years.

  30. bob Says:

    Anon,
    I was referring to overall stock value inflation over time. DreamT… seriously? You need to change the picture of the cat on your avatar to look grouchy or something.

  31. DreamT Says:

    bob, I’ll try to convince our cat to look grouchy, but no promises.

  32. nomadic Says:

    Just take his catnip away.

  33. Real Estater Says:

    Bob says,
    >>RE, the thing is that anyone can just as easily make themselves into a genius by making highly generalized statements about the stock market

    You’re looking like fool again by making a highly generalized comment. When the Dow was at 6000, did I say it was going to go sideways? Did I predict the sky was going to fall, as you did? No, I made a timely, rational call, and it was the right call. Every situation is different, which is where the value lies.

  34. DreamT Says:

    “You’re looking like fool again”
    He’s just grouchy.

  35. Real Estater Says:

    SEA says,
    >>In regards to Real Estater’s predictions, can you separate luck from skill?
    >>Reminds me of the guy who gave a 10% chance of rain, no matter the conditions.

    One of these days, you need to learn to simply accept defeat. You have no point here. Did I say there’s a 10% chance something will happen? I told you directly what will happen, and it did. While we’re talking about percentages, if someone is an 80% free throw shooter, is it luck or skill? You think about it.

  36. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay says,

    >>I am making this prediction:
    Last month I said the tomorrow’s high temperature will be between 75 degree and 95 degree. This is exactly what’s happening, …..

    Your assumption is that everywhere is like California. Unfortunately, a better analogy for the stock market is like the weather on Mars. Your prediction would be wrong 100% of the time, because you have no clue about operating in a changing environment.

  37. Pralay Says:

    That’s why the Dow is oscillating around 10,000, just as I predicted earlier this year.
    —–

    You assumption is all the DOW are trading for 10,000.

  38. Pralay Says:

    DOW chemical is trading for only 26.

  39. Pralay Says:

    I told you directly what will happen, and it did.
    —-

    Unfortunately you didn’t. In June you said “last time I said the Dow will be in a trading range between 9000 and 11000.”

    That “last time” does not exist (or at least you haven’t shown where you said so).

    It is very likely another case of “I have explained in past. I have said everything in past. Ask Pralay to google it.”

  40. Pralay Says:

    When the Dow was at 6000, did I say it was going to go sideways?
    —-

    Our FakeEstater said nothing when DOW was 6000. But he talked about his purchase (and what he said varied depending on when he said it) in almost very 1000 point drop.

    Fake Estater is like a blind squirrel that picks up every piece of pebble assuming it is nut. Yes, occasionally he gets nuts.

  41. SEA Says:

    Animal Spirits or Random Walk?

  42. Real Estater Says:

    Bunch of dumb trolling posts from Pralay…looks like he’s down for good.

  43. Pralay Says:

    If you really want to hear Fake Estater’s prediction, it would like this:

    – DOW will be 20,000 by 2011. DOW will soar, soar, soar.

    – Economy is doing great. We are all clear to take-off.

    – Unemployment will be 0% by year-end – because baby-boomers are retiring and companies need to fill-up their positions.

    If you don’t buy your house this year, you will regret next year. You will be priced out forever.

    Did I miss anything?

  44. Real Estater Says:

    >>Did I miss anything?

    Better question is: Did you add any value today?

  45. Pralay Says:

    Pot calling kettle black. :)

  46. Real Estater Says:

    Keep on trolling, Pralay!

  47. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay,

    Prediction is obviously a very easy game for you. What’s your prediction of the market tomorrow? Will it end higher or lower? That’s not too much to ask of an expert like you, right?

    It’s easy to criticize or comment on someone else. Let’s hear you put your ass on the line, for once.

  48. Real Estater Says:

    My prediction: Pralay will weasle out and evade the question again, just as he had done multiple times to reasonable requests in the past.

    Why? Because he’s a chicken shit loser.

  49. Pralay Says:

    Real Estater sounds very very upset.

    You made my day, Real Estater. :)

  50. Real Estater Says:

    Looks like my prediction is right on again! :-)

  51. madhaus Says:

    Awww, somebody is very, very grouchy and needs a hug.

  52. DreamT Says:

    maybe there was traffic on 101 today? some wrong-side people are known to get grouchy if traffic tickles them too much

  53. DreamT Says:

    Nevermind, Real Estater obviously takes 280, since he lives in the real bay area. Don’t you, Real Estater?

  54. Real Estater Says:

    Ah, the familiar “so grouchy” trolls show up…

  55. Real Estater Says:

    Surely nobody here ever heard of 101.

  56. madhaus Says:

    Surely nobody here ever heard of 101.

    #55 Sure we have. It’s the dividing line between East Palo Alto and Wrong Side of Middlefield.

    Perhaps you are so grouchy because #53 and I live much, much, much closer to 280 than you do. Having to drive miles and miles out of your way (all those traffic lights on Sand Hill Road!) just to drive on Correct Freeway must really take its toll on your Boxster.

  57. DreamT Says:

    not to mention he would then be condemned to ride down 92, O the infamy!

  58. Real Estater Says:

    Madhaus,

    For your sake, I hope you’re still having your monthly grouchiness.

  59. Real Estater Says:

    >>not to mention he would then be condemned to ride down 92, O the infamy!

    Isn’t that the way to Hillsborough?

  60. sonarrat Says:

    #59, yes, or Hayward.

    Getting pretty sick of daily 25-minute backups on the Capitol Expressway trying to get to 680. Today there was a car fire blocking the ramp, but it didn’t make any discernible difference.

  61. SEA Says:

    sonarrat- All we need to do is compute a present value of the economic value of those 25-minute backups. Next thing we’ll hear is that by buying a $2M RBA home you are actually gaining economic value.

  62. Pralay Says:

    #55 Sure we have. It’s the dividing line between East Palo Alto and Wrong Side of Middlefield.
    —-

    If you know the history of EPA, there was an effort to rename the city to Ravenswood. EPA should again be renamed to Ravenswood. Once EPA gets its identity, we can call Wrong Side of Middlefield as East Palo Alto.

  63. madhaus Says:

    Another reference to Boxster on Wrong Side of Middlefield and #58 lashes back with tampon jokes. I swear, you can’t make stuff up like this.

    #61: Was there ever any doubt?

    #62: Capitol idea! (with wink to #60)

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  68. Petsmart groomer Says:

    Reduced to $38M.

  69. Petsmart groomer Says:

    Reduced to $34M.

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  71. nomadic Says:

    Woohoo, this finally sold in December! At $28.85M it was the third most expensive property in SF history.

    A special thank you to the new owners for the projected $300k/year increase in tax revenue for the city. Gooooooo Prop 13!


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