November 16, 2010

& maybe even the Bay!

Thanks to Burbed reader sonarrat, who sent us today’s listing, and has this to say: “How about building your own dream house in Evergreen with a breathtaking view of 101?”

How about it?

3812 Dove Hill Rd, San Jose, CA 95121
$229,000

image

Beds: -
Baths: -
Sq. Ft.: -
Lot Size:  0.88 Acres
Property Type: Residential Land (Single Family)
View: Mountains, Neighborhood, Valley, City Lights
Community: Evergreen
County: Santa Clara
MLS#: 81041017
Source: MLSListings
Status: Active
On Redfin: 90 days

Beautiful place to build your dream home!!! Views of Valley, City Lights & maybe even the Bay! No plans or surveys, but don’t let that stop you from seeing the possibilities of this site. Close to shopping & dining, and just a short drive to both downtown San Jose & Morgan Hill.

No plans or surveys, but don’t let that stop you.  We’re talking Beautiful place to build your dream home!!!  You don’t need limitations like plans and surveys and site approvals and water and sewer lines.  You’re just a short drive to downtown Morgan Hill, after all.

All you need to know is this is a steep hillside lot which slopes down from the street.  Enjoy the breathtaking view.

image

Views of Valley, City Lights & maybe even the Bay…shore Freeway.

Comments (61) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:02 am

61 Responses to “& maybe even the Bay!”

  1. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    Build your own onramp/offramp and cut your commute time!

  2. ES Says:

    Breathtaking view of 101… is that breathtaking because of the asthma your kids will have?

  3. SEA Says:

    94301 Alert: We may have a winner!

    102 TENNYSON Ave

    Sold Tax Day 2005 $1,060,000
    Currently listed for $849,000

    Assuming $850,000 net, the loss is $210,000, or about 20%.

    It appears this will meet the requested parameters of a 94301 peak sale with a repeat sale at a loss of 10+%.

  4. nomadic Says:

    Don’t get too excited yet, SEA. Only listed six days. Still time for the “overbidding to take it up to where it needs to be” to pay for the kids’ college education. Bookmark it and let us know after it closes. ;-)

  5. nomadic Says:

    Aw, it’s right NEXT to the railroad tracks and Alma too. Didn’t our specimen have to not be on a main road and away from the railroad?

  6. SEA Says:

    I think it only had to be a decent place. There wasn’t a specific limitation on busy streets or proximity to railroads, etc. Basically I am going on price–If it sold for more than $1M, I consider it to be a decent place. Besides should the busy street, railroad, and so on have been priced into the $1M?

    (Yes, I know those tracks were suddenly discovered just this year!)

    This is a 3BR/3BA SFR on a 7,500 Square Foot lot in 94301, and it’s on the right side of wrong streets…

  7. sonarrat Says:

    I just had ANOTHER signed lease fall through. This time at The Woods in San Jose. Not their fault at all – the lady was trying to buy a house but they couldn’t get a cert of occupancy.

    Going to see an apartment in Menlo Park today (near Willow/Middlefield) just for kicks. I don’t think I’ll be able to stomach paying $1600 for a 50′s-vintage apartment, but maybe the RBA factor will charm me. You can’t beat the demographics of the area.

  8. nomadic Says:

    You’re right – for those following along, the original terms of the challenge from ymous were:

    I nominate 94301. I want someone to find a property with enough sales history that we can see a peak price somewhere in 2006-2008, and a subsequent price drop (of at least 10%) due to the popping of the housing bubble – a clear case of the peak buyer losing money.

    All in a good neighborhood, nice street, good property. Arms-length transaction, no funny business. Short sales/REOs allowed (but do they really exist in 94301?).

    Depends how you want to define “nice street.”

  9. SEA Says:

    Note that 2005 is a bit early for the time frame, but I think it’s in the spirit, if not the letter.

    As far as the “nice street,” I went with the idea that $1M properties (previous selling price) is located on a nice street. If you ask me, any place in 94301 that’s sold for more than $1M recently is located on a “nice street.” Alternatively, who paid over $1M for a not nice street? (Please don’t answer this question; I don’t really want to know. lol)

    At close to 20% (depending on the final sale price, and depending on if one allows for some sales expenses to be deducted) this is nearly double the 10% minimum loss.

    The ultimate question is why is this place struggling to sell for ~20% less than 2005. How can this happen in 94301?

  10. SEA Says:

    sonarrat- Don’t get desperate–I’m sure you’ll find a good place. A few months ago, I went out with a friend helping him find a place, and we saw failed flips, desperate for cash people. Many of the deals had way too much risk. He did eventually find a nice place.

    I’ll be thinking happy thoughts for you!

  11. sonarrat Says:

    I learned the hard way not to rent from upside-down landlords. I did get two good years out of the place, but man, you really get nickel and dimed like crazy living in a single-family house.

  12. TheGilroyAlex Says:

    Why in the world would anyone WANT to take that nice short drive to downtown Morgan Hill? That place is in constant contention with Gilroy for Most Boring Town Ever.

    This is a particularly bleak part of Santa Clara County. Sit and watch the cars go by ……

  13. SEA Says:

    Real Estater- Do you know how well I sleep at night? In part it’s because you provided the sell signal!

    Could you let me know when I should get back in?

  14. SEA Says:

    What was going on last year? Discussion on 144 Tennyson Ave (a couple doors down from 102).

    Yup, that’s right, the over-bidding wasn’t big enough. I’m sure those two homes remain on paper only too. What’s that paper worth? Oh, that’s right, the value is in the land, right? Palo Alto sells itself, but it certainly doesn’t build itself, or so it seems. Does Palo Alto buy itself and not tell anyone too?

    A little earlier, in May 2009 Herve pointed out, 154 Tennyson Ave (reduced from $1,275,000 to $1,110,000). 154 Did eventually sell for $1,085,000 in January 2010. Note the under-bidding.

    What is the velocity of ‘buyable’ inventory?

  15. madhaus Says:

    #3, wtf? That house is worth less than mine. And it’s bigger. Check out the missing intermediate list prices over on Zillow.

    Date Description Price % Chg $/sqft Source
    10/09/2010 Listing removed * $1,150,000 – $751 Keller Williams-Cupertino
    05/21/2010 Price change * $1,150,000 -3.2% $751 Keller Williams-Cupertino
    04/30/2010 Listed for sale * $1,188,000 – $775 Keller Williams-Cupertino
    04/21/2010 Listing removed * $1,188,000 – $775 Keller Williams
    03/13/2010 Listed for sale * $1,188,000 -6.8% $775 Keller Williams

    $1.15M to $849K? Somebody REALLY wants out of 94301. Either that or they know somebody who says High Speed Rail’s a coming.

    Yeah, it’s definitely on a busy street plus the train tracks, but great find anyway. For “bunus” fun, Zillow says there’s another building on the site.

    #11, first thanks for today’s amazing find. Second, I have lived in far more single-family houses than apartments. I did rent apartments in SF, but then I bought a condo (that used to be an apartment) and after that it was houses all the way.

    So what do you mean about being nickled and dimed? I much preferred renting houses.

  16. . Says:

    “Real Estater- Do you know how well I sleep at night? In part it’s because you provided the sell signal!”

    rofl

  17. nomadic Says:

    So, RE, if $1000/sf is “fair” for the zip, why is the house in #3 listed at “only” $555/sf. Overbids going to take it up to $1.5M?

  18. Pralay Says:

    So, RE, if $1000/sf is “fair” for the zip, why is the house in #3 listed at “only” $555/sf. Overbids going to take it up to $1.5M?
    —–

    It has to 2-car garage. That’s why..

  19. sonarrat Says:

    #15, I worked it out and figured that paying $1400 in rent in my house was the same as paying $1600 for an apartment in a pricier part of town. I suppose in a way, it’s more a function of living in Evergreen which is far from all the places I routinely shop at..

  20. madhaus Says:

    #19, that’s not due to renting a house. You know what your problem was?

    Location, Location, Location.

    #17, 18… This house is priced in advance of it moving to 94043. It found a lovely site convenient to Gables End.

  21. SEA Says:

    nomadic- As madhaus correctly pointed out, 102 TENNYSON Ave is “located too close to Caltrain (and the future high speed rail).”

    You’d think that the Caltrain planners would know better than to make a mistake like running a highway through RE Olds home.

    “Ransom and Metta Olds’ residence no longer stands. It was demolished in 1971 to make way for I-496, the highway that currently traverses the City of Lansing.”

    Palo Alto may never be the same.

  22. Real Estater Says:

    >>So, RE, if $1000/sf is “fair” for the zip, why is the house in #3 listed at “only” $555/sf. Overbids going to take it up to $1.5M?

    I think you know the answer, and you’re asking just to be an asshole. Anybody who looks at the map can tell right away why this is not the most desirable location.

    In any case, at the current asking price it is a very good buy. Yes, let me say it again: It’s a steal at $849K, and overbidding is almost assured.

  23. SEA Says:

    “overbidding is almost assured.”

    Good! I was getting a little worried about the kids of Palo Alto.

  24. Real Estater Says:

    >>Palo Alto may never be the same.

    Could be true. Personally, I think high speed rail is great. It will not only bring money and jobs during the construction phase of the project, it will also expand our economy in the long term by facilitating greater connectivity. California will become like another Europe. There will definitely be impacts to homes located close to the rail. It will reduce the amount of “buyable inventory” in Palo Alto, which actually makes homes away from the rail even more valuable.

  25. SEA Says:

    Reducing the amount of “buyable inventory” does what to the “velocity of ‘buyable’ inventory?”

  26. Real Estater Says:

    SEA,

    To keep things simple for you. Lower inventory leads to higher prices.

  27. Real Estater Says:

    Speaking of rails, has anyone taken either Caltrain or BART lately? There are an amazing number of young professionals. The trains are packed during commute hours. The atmosphere is one that points to an increasingly booming economy.

  28. SEA Says:

    But in this case the buyers are fewer too.

  29. DreamT Says:

    The Caltrain was packed in 2002 and 2003 during commute hours. And two years ago – yes, 2008 – you’d read concerns about overloaded bike wagons. Tougher economy also means longer commutes to the concentrated job pockets.
    A year and a half of Caltrain commute + bike exhausted me. If “young professionals” flood the Caltrain, it’s merely because of the lack of a decent alternative, and not a statement about the local economy at large…

  30. Pralay Says:

    Anybody who looks at the map can tell right away why this is not the most desirable location.
    —–

    Of course it is not desirable location. And I can tell it without looking at map. All I need to see the sale price and apply real estate expert’s rule:
    - if it is selling more than 2005 price – desirable location.
    - if it is selling less than 2005 price: not desirable.

  31. Real Estater Says:

    >>A year and a half of Caltrain commute + bike exhausted me.

    You got exhausted sitting in a train? Maybe that’s why you need the bike exercise.

  32. SEA Says:

    Real Estater- “Anybody who looks at the map can tell right away why this is not the most desirable location.”

    Maybe the last buyer didn’t look at the map?

  33. nomadic Says:

    nomadic- As madhaus correctly pointed out, 102 TENNYSON Ave is “located too close to Caltrain (and the future high speed rail).”

    no, no, no. Even a small, crappy lot in PA is better than renting anywhere else.

    Maybe the last buyer didn’t look at the map?

    That house MOVED to that location after the current owners bought it.

  34. Real Estater Says:

    We need houses like this. Otherwise, where are the people without financial means going to live?

  35. SEA Says:

    EPA, Oakland, SF RBA (probational areas)

  36. Pralay Says:

    It will reduce the amount of “buyable inventory” in Palo Alto, which actually makes homes away from the rail even more valuable.
    —-

    I agree 100%. Especially it will be good for 1-car garage properties at the Wrong Side of Middlefield. Currently that area is not exactly “the MOST desirable location”. But once high speed train is in, it will be (hopefully…..keeping fingers crossed).

  37. Pralay Says:

    no, no, no. Even a small, crappy lot in PA is better than renting anywhere else.
    —–

    Yes, the 2005 buyer of 102 TENNYSON Ave listened to Real Estater -

    Like I said, having something is better than having nothing at all. In other words, having a house in San Jose beats renting in Palo Alto any day!

    So instead of renting, he bought a property which is NOT “the most desirable location”.

  38. SEA Says:

    “All you need to know is that prices will double in about 10 years.”

  39. Real Estater Says:

    Pralay,

    Why are you still talking about Palo Alto? There are homes available in your price range in San Jose. Why are you not buying when the price is low?

  40. DreamT Says:

    #31 – noise and vibrations for 150 minutes every day :(

  41. Pralay Says:

    he trains are packed during commute hours. The atmosphere is one that points to an increasingly booming economy.
    —–

    Good for Caltrain. Hopefully, they don’t have to file for bankruptcy. :)

  42. Pralay Says:

    “All you need to know is that prices will double in about 10 years.”
    —–

    Yes, the owner of 102 TENNYSON Ave just needed to a wait five more years. Only five years. In 2015 he could sell it for $2M. What a fool – couldn’t wait only five years.

  43. ymous Says:

    #3 oooh, nice find, SEA! It’s awfully close to the ‘intent’ of my challenge. We do have to wait and see the final closing price – but man, what a drop!

    So how loud is that train? It’s obviously a nice general location in PA, but is it ‘ghetto’ to live this close to Alma/CalTrain? Or is it just a minor inconvenience that doesn’t disqualify this lot from the RBA?

  44. madhaus Says:

    #43, where the heck have you been? People have been finding houses for you all over 94301! Suggest you Google your name :)

    Also I think the Catfood Commission picture in Sunday’s article (the tax thread/mortgage interest) would make a great caption contest.

  45. SEA Says:

    ymouse- “Or is it just a minor inconvenience that doesn’t disqualify this lot from the RBA?”

    Now, now, don’t get too cute with this…

    If the value doubles every 10 years or sooner, then it’s a convenience.

    If the value approximately every 10 years, or a little longer, then it’s a minor inconvenience.

    If the value goes down? Not RBA material.

    It going to be impossible to find an RBA house that goes down in value, even if the RBA has to shrink down to one house left.

    Here is an explanation of how the RBA works in terms of set theory. (Thank you Prof. Bleen!)

  46. Pralay Says:

    So how loud is that train?
    —–
    There are issues and there are REAL(TM) issues.

    Train noise is not a REAL(TM) issue in Palo Alto. Remember, “even Steve Jobs can hear the train noise”. Therefore, it is not an REAL(TM) issue.
    The issue is price drop. When price drops, train noise becomes REAL(TM) issue.

  47. SEA Says:

    Don’t forget, “ In RBA, there is no train whistle. Caltrain plays Mozart instead. Just ask Real Estater.

  48. madhaus Says:

    And High-Speed rail will play Tchaikovsky.

  49. SEA Says:

    Was it the Mongols or Mongrels that were going to invade Palo Alto?

    High-Speed rail playing Tchaikovsky might come in very handy…

    The best solution, as we all know is:

    Build

    higher

    Just remember, while high-speed rail might be a bad thing, RBA neighborhoods have RPL.

  50. anon Says:

    That’s right. Remember that to be real power lines, they have to be underground. If you can see the power lines to your house, you’re not RBA.

  51. ymous Says:

    #44 sorry – I don’t check-in religiously. It seems I have to read all the threads all the time to see where the commenting action is, and that’s tiresome, especially when it moves around. Maybe I’m doing it wrong. Do you guys use an RSS feed or something?

  52. ymous Says:

    I did google burbed.com:ymous, and I only got this thread and the ‘winning post’ thread. :94301 didn’t yield much either. Maybe I’m doing the search wrong. Pretty please, point me to the other 94301 price drops?

  53. DreamT Says:

    #51 – http://www.burbed.com/comments/feed/

  54. SEA Says:

    ymous- Here is a bit more of how the RBA works:

    Gone pending already. $1.4 million? No problem. Close to 101? No problem, not in Palo Alto. In fact, the house is under priced, and over-bidding is just about guaranteed.

    And don’t ask about that guaranteed over-bidding…

  55. Pralay Says:

    There were indeed over-bidding. But over-bidding was in micro-cents and nano-dollars. That’s why over-bidding amount is not visible in final sale price rounded up in whole dollars.

    But don’t worry, those micro-cents and nano-dollars are sufficient to fund kid’s college education.

  56. Real Estater Says:

    >>ymous- Here is a bit more of how the RBA works:
    “Gone pending already. $1.4 million? No problem. Close to 101? No problem, not in Palo Alto. In fact, the house is under priced, and over-bidding is just about guaranteed.”

    Of course there’s not a problem. Here’s a similar house on the same street now selling for $1.55M.

  57. SEA Says:

    Why the unusual pricing strategy?

  58. Pralay Says:

    Here’s a similar house on the same street now selling for $1.55M.
    —-

    Absolutely. It is “selling” and in “soon pending” status. Overbidding in micro-cents and nano-dollars is guaranteed.

  59. SEA Says:

    Open House Information:

    102 TENNYSON Ave
    Sunday, November 21, 2010 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM

    543 HILBAR Ln
    Saturday, November 20, 2010 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM
    Sunday, November 21, 2010 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM

    Let the “over-bidding” begin!

  60. SEA Says:

    Ok, so I’m going to make a basic assumption: Low priced housing, the type the garners so-called over-bidding, moves much quicker than over-priced houses. Maybe this assumption is wrong, but if a 94301 home were listed for $100k, I suspect there would be plenty of offers almost immediately, even if the home were located next to busy streets, rail road tracks (high speed or otherwise) and so on.

    The tough part comes with the level of bidding. There are three basic cases:

    1. Over-bidding.
    2. Full price offer.
    3. Less than full price offer.

    If we take that $100k asking price home and it isn’t sufficiently over-bid (i.e. the over-bidding didn’t bring the selling price up “to where it needs to be”), does it leave the RBA? Or, alternatively, using the theory that buying low and selling high is a good strategy, does it enter the RBA? Is it out until it’s resold? These are important RBA issues.

    Then there is the issue of the number of bidders. I suspect that the home listed for $100k would garner many more “over-bid” offers than the same home listed for $1M. Generally the higher the asking price, the fewer the number of offers. Maybe I’m wrong about this?

    In any event, we know that Real Estater pointed out 543 Hilbar Ln (#56), and I pointed out 102 Tennyson Ave (#3). Both had open houses this last weekend. If these were low-priced, then it’d seem like the pending status would be nearly immediate.

    With that said, I’m wondering how long will it take these homes to go pending, or in Pralay’s terms (#58), what’s the maximum amount of time a home can remain in “soon-pending” status?

    Maybe, just maybe, they are sorting out thousands of offers? I am not sure, but “soon-pending” probation may be required.

  61. sonarrat Says:

    102 Tennyson sold for $1 million even.


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