May 16, 2011

I Left My Equity in San Francisco

burbedguestbloggerPlease welcome Burbed reader SEA back to the front page with a piece that got held up in comment moderation.  SEA agreed to let us move this to the the featured listing of the day instead, so you could all enjoy every bit of this, um, amazing, um, uh, well read on for today’s Guest Blogger’s view.

Please give SEA a big, warm Real Bay Area welcome and check out this amazing price cut incredible value in Baghdad by the Bay!


Here’s a prime example of a not of money lost, but I’m happy it’s not my money:

627 La Salle Ave #73, San Francisco, CA 94124
$75,000

image

BEDS: 3
BATHS: 3
SQ. FT.: 1,360
$/SQ. FT.: $55
LOT SIZE: –
PROPERTY TYPE: Condominium
STYLE: Traditional
VIEW: Panoramic, Bay
YEAR BUILT: 1981
COMMUNITY: Bayview
COUNTY: San Francisco
MLS#: 377644
SOURCE: San Francisco MLS
STATUS: Pending
ON REDFIN: 203 days

Sold: July 2005 $400k
Listed: October 2010 $100k (75% lower than last sale–Christmas in October, maybe?)
Listing price reduced: January 2011 to $75k

imageIt did go pending in October 2010, so who knows what’s up with the January price reduction, but who was it that paid $400k for this place, and when will it be worth $400k again, even if the local/national economy suddenly looked very good? I sure don’t see a neighborhood suddenly going from $100k sales to $400k sales (to get back to 2005 pricing), and then, for those who purchased in 2005, it would need to go significantly higher to realize a reasonable return on investment. Here it is some six years later, and let’s use the “double every 10 years” standard, that suggests that this place would need to sell for $800k in just four years. Yes, that’s right, from under $100k to ~$800k in four years. The freakin’ RBA cannot compete with that.

imageAlternatively, Let’s say the price does not go from $100k to $800k in four years, but rather the selling price doubles in four years. This means that similar homes in the area would be worth ~$200k, so those who purchased at $400k would be down 50% after 10 years. And I think I’m being a bit generous to suggest the prices will double in that area in just four years–first prices need to stop going down, and then double.

image

All this while people kvetch about an extra buck for a gallon of gas. You know the routine: So many complain that gas is ‘unaffordable,’ yet they dream about buying million dollar homes. Million dollar homes cannot be the problem–let’s go to war over a few bucks each week in gas expense.

And before you tell me how special this place is on the lower end, there is at least one other in that area: 132 Dolphin Ct.

Purchased June 2005 for $410k.
Sold February 2011 for $108k.

Is that close enough to say 75% off? When will the selling price get back over $400k?

I know:

empty houseEvery home is sacred.
Every home is great.
If a home is wasted,
God gets quite irate.

Every home is wanted.
Every home is good.
Every home is needed
in your neighborhood.

God loves those who treat
their homes with more care.

Comments (23) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:15 am

23 Responses to “I Left My Equity in San Francisco”

  1. waiting_for_the_fall Says:

    http://foundsf.org/index.php?title=Brief_History_of_Bayview-Hunters_Point

    People must have been insane to pay $400k to live in a ghetto.

  2. CB Says:

    Going forward, I think it would be a good idea to save SEA’s word problems for days other than Monday.

  3. nomadic Says:

    At current interest rates and 100% financing of $75k, the homeowners dues ($324/month) are more than the mortgage.

    (And did anyone else notice that when this place last sold in 2005 it was overbid by $11k? lol.)

  4. Mole Man Says:

    People paid $400k to play the game. Do we really know for sure anyone lived there? More industrious players did grow house conversions which aren’t always obvious when most of the equipment is removed. The banks were insane to lend $400k for a shard of ghetto, but they were just playing games too.

  5. madhaus Says:

    #3, that makes this place just a step up from buying in a trailer park. #2, when you send in some guest posts, you have the right to snark on other people’s contributions. Besides, if I wrote all the content, you’d get pretty bored.

  6. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    You know how some real estate tour sites have inspirational music for their address webpage? I did the agent of this lovely offering a solid and looked one up for them.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lRKQxIRwM4

  7. The Gilroy Alex Says:

    Eww. Neighborhood: Bayview. I think that’s known as “Da Bayview” by its denizens, yep it’s the kind of neighborhood that has denizens rather than residents. You see all those cute little trails? Those aren’t from rabbits, or even from giant mutant rats, instead it’s worse: bored ghetto kids. Now, as a kid, I was a little terror, and so were you. But our brand of “terror” was stuff like building another dang tree house, making swords ‘n’ shields out of cardboard and stuff, picking berries and eating half and throwing half. And spoiling our dinner. Ghetto kids also raise hell: lighting stuff on fire, stealing stuff, breaking into places, doing drugs (yes by age 8) etc. and the only reason their parents yell at them is because they didn’t share (the drugs or spoils) or forgot to take the license plates and radio offa Whitey’s car before burnin’ it.

    #4 you are correct. Someone bought this black hole of despair just to play the game. Maybe the area was gonna get gentrified or something.

  8. tuno Says:

    Streetview doesn’t go there. what a surprise.

  9. tuno Says:

    This place is so awful that no-one even bothers to note that it appears to have a front yard that is made of moldy plywood.

    It’s so strange, wandering Bayview via Street View, or at any rate those few streets that are covered by it. You don’t *see* any photos of anyone being robbed or murdered. Is the crime a myth, used to keep white yuppies out? Does it all happen at night? Loads of people actually *live* there; are they constantly being mugged?

    I lived for 4 years in Hyde Park on the South Side of Chicago; most people I knew there had been mugged or burglarized or worse. So I suppose it’s like that; you’re just as careful as you can stand being.

  10. madhaus Says:

    #9, correct, I suspect that between the location fail and the hefty ($324? $324????? For WHAT???) HOA dues this place may have negative value.

  11. Mole Man Says:

    This place is visible from mapjack.com, though even that site doesn’t cover all of Bayview. There is a view of the bay, and out front are some cars with blingy accessories. I haven’t seen any crimes on pictures from that site, but there are some surly looking people on the sidewalks. Might gentrify? Not in our lifetimes.

  12. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    Typically, you want to gentrify the ghettos that AREN’T located on multiple superfund sites and dozens of other registered toxic sites.

  13. nomadic Says:

    The un-built lots shown next to this complex on Redfin indicate a new housing development is pending. That would bring the hope of a positive influence, if not gentrification.

  14. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    Unless they are building more ghetto. Which is what they will do.

  15. sfbubblebuyer Says:

    For the record, Bayview/Hunter’s Point has record high home-ownership in San Francisco. Well into the high 60′s which is tops in San Fran. I guess encouraging ownership doesn’t guarantee better neighborhoods.

  16. DreamT Says:

    #15 – Maybe the rate of owner-in-residence is high because if you’re looking to rent, about any other place is better.

    #12 – That’s what they said at Gable’s End!

  17. CB Says:

    #5 I’ll certainly try to contribute. I hadn’t realized there was a call for guest posts.

    PS – I thought snark was a natural right?

  18. SEA Says:

    How would you like to be one of the other $400k ‘owners’ who have a bunch of $75k-$150k new buyers populate the area? While you are trying to refinance your ~$400k in debt–you know, because rates are low and all–the new owners are paying 1/4 what your new payment is (you both get the same interest rate and duration, but the new buyer purchased at 1/4 the cost). But don’t worry, your payment won’t go up, even if all the new buyers’ payments are tiny.

  19. madhaus Says:

    #17, yes I love getting guest posts, less work for me! :D

    Seriously, I think the range of guest posts is making this a better site, and it really hard for me to be “on” all the time. If you don’t feel like writing up a listing, you can just send it in and I’ll write it up. Or you can get lucky and send it in to burbed, and you never know, you may get the QUALITY GUEST POST from the Original burbed. Or your listing may fall in a black hole next to a Superfund site. Hard to say!

  20. nomadic Says:

    #18, the $400k “owners” really don’t have to worry about refinancing their debt. It’ll never happen.

  21. The Gilroy Alex Says:

    I don’t think Google Street View or Maps will show people doing much of anything, much less killing each other as is popular in this neighborhood. I’m sure the “police blotter” of the newspaper covering this area will give an idea of what goes on though.

  22. sonarrat Says:

    I’ve been in Israel, so I’ll try to write something up on Tel Aviv vs. San Francisco. You may be surprised.

  23. SEA Says:

    May 6, 2011
    Foreclosure sale: $74,500


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