January 20, 2013

More Bubbly Brewing: Line-ups & Lotteries

New houses selling like they’re going out of style. In San Ramon, where they actually are making more land.

Hundreds of hopeful San Ramon buyers line up for new construction lotto

Posted By: Jenny Pisillo | San Francisco Chronicle | January 18 at 4:00 am

Back in August, local East Bay Redfin real estate agents forwarded us a picture of hopeful homebuyers camping out – yes, spending the night (some up to 1 month) – to be one of the first to have the opportunity to buy a new construction home in the Shapell Homes Solaire development of San Ramon’s Gale Ranch community.

Fast forward to January – only the 4 model homes are left. Knowing that there would be high demand and wanting to avoid the cluttered look of tents, Shapell decided to have a lottery system to release the homes. Tickets were given out last Saturday morning at 10, and the lucky drawing was an hour later at 11am.

These people in the photo aren’t lining up for a chance to buy a new release of homes. They’re in line to get one of four tickets in a lottery to buy the four remaining model homes. And they will cost $50-90,000 more than they did just five months ago. As is. Penalty if not purchased by 2/28.

Which leads to this weekend Open Thread. How long are lines at the open houses? Are they having lotteries for who gets the glossy fliers?

 

Comments (29) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:01 am

29 Responses to “More Bubbly Brewing: Line-ups & Lotteries”

  1. waiting_for_the_fall Says:

    Went to view homes in Livermore yesterday. Two houses had lines waiting to view them.
    It’s crazy out there.

  2. Real Estater Says:

    If you look at the photo, the buyers are all Asian.

  3. JSims Says:

    Actually all Indian almost and they lack basic skills in finance no doubt driving up the bubble costs in real estate.

  4. waiting_for_the_fall Says:

    People are still buying this year with 3% FHA loans, since PMI is now deductable. In 2014, new bank rules make it impossible for banks to lend to someone that have 50% of their income going to a mortgage.
    The PMI deduction will be removed in another year or two, which adds hundreds of dollars to monthly payments.

    The foreclosure cycle will continue until the 20% downpayment rule comes back.

  5. SEA Says:

    Uh, what’s this about a lack of basic skills in finance?

    I thought everyone knew that home prices always go up, and foreclosures only happen to ‘bad’ people, since owners are ‘good’ people.

  6. nomadic Says:

    Just listen to the Brits, SEA: “safe as houses!”

  7. Real Estater Says:

    #3, Indians are really good at math from what I’ve seen.

  8. SEA Says:

    Indians know how to count to ten, which is all that’s needed to determine when housing price will double.

  9. Divasm Says:

    So glad we’re not limiting our sweeping generalizations to just Real Estate prices or the lower class… :)

  10. Petsmart groomer Says:

    Real Estater: teaching stereotyping values since 1971

  11. sprezzatura Says:

    The PMI deduction begins to phase out once your adjusted gross income reaches $100,000 and disappears entirely at an AGI of $109,000.

    I doubt many Bay Area homebuyers will actually get the PMI deduction.

  12. Petsmart groomer Says:

    > I doubt many Bay Area homebuyers will actually get the PMI deduction.

    …or need PMI to begin with.

  13. SEA Says:

    $500k is not a lot of money.

  14. bmwman91 Says:

    Actually, I DO find the demographic makeup of the line in that picture to be totally unsurprising (deliciously stereotypical).

    Most of the open houses that I have been to in my area (MV/SC/Sunnyvale) have been mostly swamped by Chinese folks, and some Indians. A lot of it is just a general distrust of fiat currency ingrained in their cultures, although looking at the big picture, overpaying for houses because everyone else is trying to do the same thing isn’t all that much different than trying to hoard currency because everyone else is trying to. It all operates on the greater-fool principle in the end.

    White people are going crazy about RE too, but my people generally seem to be tapped-out on consumer credit whereas the Chindians actually know how to save up a down payment and are more competitive in the housing market as a result.

    Needless to say, the bubble mentality is back…except this time it is ridiculously low inventories driving prices, not NINJA loans. I mean, the FHA is doing a pretty stand-up job of doling out 3/4ths of a million dollars to anyone with a pulse still, but standards are better than they were (and it’s sad that 3.5% down is “better”).

  15. JSims Says:

    Yeah well the problem is that RE is still way overpriced here in the RBA and for me having a few million in liquid cash is better than stuck here with some crapshack little better than an apartment.

  16. SEA Says:

    “the problem is that RE is still way overpriced here in the RBA”

    That’s not a bug; that’s a feature!

  17. dollarbin Says:

    I think the problem is that RE is UNDERpriced everywhere BUT the RBA.

  18. madhaus Says:

    You’re all nuts. RBA real estate is wildly undervalued. NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY! Do you want to be PRICED OUT FOREVER?

  19. SEA Says:

    Bid big or go homeless!

  20. SEA Says:

    “Apple Inc. (AAPL)
    460.63 Down 53.37(10.38%) 11:57AM EST”

    Down over 10%? OUCH!

    How does this happen to a stock that was practically guaranteed to go from $700 to $1,000? Bad stock, maybe?

  21. SEA Says:

    While I still have an unfavorable opinion of Netflix, the stock performance from its recent low has been terrific.

    “Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
    142.48 Up 39.22(37.98%) 12:16PM EST”

    Up over 35% today!

  22. SEA Says:

    I missed this one: From $100 to $167 in two days. Now that’s Real RBA results.

    “Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
    167.23 Up 20.37(13.87%) 11:00AM EST”

  23. nomadic Says:

    Didn’t you hear? RE told us all to buy two weeks ago. LOL!

  24. Real Estater Says:

    I already cashed out on that one.

    Apple is a strong buy right now! (Disclaimer: I do not own the stock, but will soon)

  25. SEA Says:

    Now is the right time to buy.
    I already cashed out.
    Blah, Blah, Blah…

  26. Real Estater Says:

    Remember there was a stupid guy who did not believe RE? Where is he now?

    Long time ago, I talked about foreign buyers with loads of cash. The stupid guy mocked. Well well, take a look at this report. That’s why he is the stupid guy.

  27. SEA Says:

    Very trustworthy piece: “Most of the buyers taking part in the overbidding are focused on buying homes near good schools, real estate agents said.”

    CRAZY!

  28. madhaus Says:

    Remember there was a stupid guy who did not believe RE? Where is he now?

    I just saw him at the Ferrari dealer.

  29. Real Estater Says:

    Wrong guy. The stupid guy is not even looking.


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