February 27, 2013

Bubble Bubble, Boil and Double (every 10 years)

130226-mrhousingbubblePeople often ask if we’re in another Bay Area housing bubble. We usually reply that if you live in the Real Bay Area, you’ve been in Bubble 4.0 for at least a year! But not everyone is fortunate enough to live in the RBA. What if you live in the Real Gray Area, or the Corridor of Not Quite?  What if you live somewhere that Is Not Special At All?

Do you know how to absolutely, positively demonstrate it’s a fact that we’re in another bubble? When places you know are never used in a sentence with “RBA” (unless with a negative) start showing up in these questions.  When even Irvine is calling Bubble again, we have to really start taking better measurements. So, let’s head over to… Gilroy.


130226-sunflower-redfin2367 SUNFLOWER Cir
Gilroy, CA 95020

3 Beds
4.5 Baths
3,082 Sq. Ft.
$255 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1996
Lot Size: 0.36 Acres
On Redfin: 1 day
Property Type: Attached Single Family
Stories: 2
Community: Morgan Hill/Gilroy/San Martin
MLS#: 81305783
Style: Contemporary
View: Green Belt, Mountains, Neighborhood, Valley
County: Santa Clara

Beautiful Country Estates Home located on 15,000 sq. ft. lot with wonderful Hillviews. Very spacious floor plan with lots of usable land and a great location! Master bedroom located on 1st floor. Located in a cul-de-sac at the top of the hill. Shows beautifully. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this lovely home. Luigi Aprea and Christopher High School district. This is a regular sale!!

130226-sunflower-satelliteThis listing is the perfect mix of mild disdain for the customer with admission that Gilroy is still The Land The New Bubble Forgot. Either than or this agent is still stuck in 2009: This is a regular sale!!

Sheesh, is MLS now charging brokers $10,000 per photo or something? What’s with this 3-in-one tiling display, when most listings manage to cough up nine photos? You would think a 3,000 sf house would have more than one inside room to show off.

Place doesn’t have much of a back yard, either. (Sorry, Streetview Not Available At This Location.)

So, Bubble or Not in Gilroy?

Comments (11) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:09 am

11 Responses to “Bubble Bubble, Boil and Double (every 10 years)”

  1. KikiSC Says:

    Is it some sort of duplex with a breezeway? “Attached single family.” A tnird of an acre lot. There’s something weird about it and I Ned more coffee.

  2. Metalhead Says:

    Is this up for honorary RBA since it has 4.5 baths for 3 bedrooms? If you need another place to sleep, consider one of the baths!

  3. SEA Says:

    “Year Built:1996
    Last Sold:Oct 1997 for $515,000”

    Back in 2006 the Zestimate peaked at $1.3M.
    Today’s listing price is essentially equal to the Zestimate.

    You have to wonder if the owners thought that “real estate always goes up.” This place likely would/could/should have sold for $1.3M back in 2006.

    In summary: This place probably could have sold for more than double in less than 10 years, but instead the owner waited to seek about 50% more after 16 years.

    Remember the days when a bad flip suggested extra profit from the sudden housing price appreciation?

  4. nomadic Says:

    They were late to the party when they tried to sell in 2007 and premature in thinking the recovery was underway in late 2010. Looks like they have good timing now.

  5. SEA Says:

    “09/17/2007 Listed for sale $1,075,000”

    Likely couldn’t list for less than 100% profit after 10 years.

  6. Divasm Says:

    I had a friend put an offer on a loft in SF recently and there were apparently 50 other offers…at some point our bubbliciousness is going to have to expand to non-RBA, since – as we all know – they’re not making more land (except where they are)!

    What if instead of 2006 and now being a bubble, this is normal and 2008 was an anti-bubble??? What’s the opposite of a bubble, a crater?

  7. peanutbutter Says:

    I bet many bubble sites that have managed to hold out are now pleased. They can start all over again!

  8. mabeldu Says:

    how can 1/3 of an acre have such a tiny backyard? is the lot all driveway?!? i’d guess yes, since the overhead view shows a flag lot, or an odd shared driveway thingy.

    pan out from the zillow overhead shot and you’ll see a huge mass of red & blue pointers in that area. hard to tell which there are more of. the reds (for sale) and the blue ‘make me move’ – many of those are foreclosures. quelle surprise!!!

  9. Sanjay Says:

    Buy Gilroy now and you’ll be sorry forever.

  10. Real Estater Says:

    Even Facebook gets outbid.

  11. SEA Says:

    FB must build “15 homes, or pay $4.5 million in in-lieu fees, according to the proposed below-market-rate housing agreement

    An attempt to buy lots the city owned at 777-821 Hamilton Avenue failed when Facebook was outbid, according to company representatives. Menlo Park sold the land for $8 million in November to Greenheart Land Company,”

    So the choice is pay $4.5M or pay fair value for the land, which is far in excess of the $4.5M, plus the homes must still be constructed.

    Sounds like FB made a sound financial decision: Do Not Buy.

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