Ever wonder why the East Bay isn’t in the RBA?
This is why.
This is Zillow’s map of negative equity by county in Central California. The more red, the more they bled. You can look at the map by state, by county, and by zip code. At the county level, we can see that the only Bay Area regions that aren’t about to terminate from failure to clot are Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin Counties. Santa Cruz County is looking a little pink around the neck (it’s 22% underwater) but it’s downright alabaster compared to the abattoir north and east of San Jose. Here are the county by county numbers for 2012.
| Bay Area County | Percent of homes w/mortgage underwater | Median Zillow Home Value Index | Decline from peak value |
| Alameda | 25% | $447,100 | -30% |
| Contra Costa | 33% (highest 20% in US) | $334,200 | -46% |
| Marin | 16% | $716,500 | -20% |
| Napa | 30% | $365,100 | -42% |
| San Francisco | 10% | $771,100 | -3% |
| San Mateo | 15% | $689.900 | -15% |
| Santa Clara | 15% | $642,600 | -13% |
| Santa Cruz* | 23% | $503,400 | -31% |
| Solano | 54% (highest 1% in US) | $202,400 | -58% |
| Sonoma | 29% | $357,800 | -40% |
And here’s a live version for you to play with, although you can also head over to Zillow and see it in action wherever you want to examine.
March 2nd, 2013 at 7:29 am
What this map tells you is that East Bay is where the opportunities are, specifically Alameda and Contra Costa counties. As a matter of fact, this statement is validated by recent numbers,which show these counties are experiencing some of the highest gains in median sales price. Go visit an open house in the East Bay right now, and you’ll find the lines to be even longer than RBA.
When I saw this trend I focused my investment property search there in Q4 last year. After losing a few bidding wars, I finally got the deal done.
March 2nd, 2013 at 7:55 am
Opportunities if there was actually an inventory, and an absence of foreign funds, and business flippers who are taking advantage of buying properties with all cash, that could never be appraised at their bid with a conventional mortgage, and then turing around 3 months later and selling them for $100-200k more than they bought them for because of the affordability of a 3.5% mortgage.
I decided to attempt to get at these opportunites after I saw prices in Winter 2011 as pretty decent, and competition was slim to moderate for what was available. In one of these counties (Alameda, and Fremont to be exact), You could find 3/2′s for around $400-425. Not the kind that are under Electric wires or adjacent to the highway, but decent ones. Now they are all priced at $585-620k. So much for wishful thinking, or opportunity.
March 2nd, 2013 at 8:07 am
Long-term, I’m starting to think that San Francisco is the only smart investment. The steady demand and chronic lack of supply has kept home values fairly steady through everything that happened. There are still overpriced properties like everything else, but I think your average $1M house in the Castro or Nob Hill will hold its value as long as it’s still standing.
March 2nd, 2013 at 12:56 pm
If you zoom in far enough on the Zillow map, you can see results by zip code. EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.
March 2nd, 2013 at 3:47 pm
> EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.
It’s actually 94303 as a whole, not just EPA
March 2nd, 2013 at 5:00 pm
>> EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.
> It’s actually 94303 as a whole, not just EPA
Don’t be silly. Everyone knows that problems in Palo Alto are entirely caused by nonresident marauding hooligans. Even equity theft.
March 2nd, 2013 at 7:29 pm
Do you need more examples?
March 2nd, 2013 at 8:08 pm
Burglary in PA? I’m sure you can find plenty…
March 2nd, 2013 at 9:35 pm
Removed for personal attack unrelated to real estate. –ed.