March 2, 2013

Ever wonder why the East Bay isn’t in the RBA?

This is why.

130301-negeq-norcal

This is Zillow’s map of negative equity by county in Central California.  The more red, the more they bled.  You can look at the map by state, by county, and by zip code.  At the county level, we can see that the only Bay Area regions that aren’t about to terminate from failure to clot are Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin Counties.  Santa Cruz County is looking a little pink around the neck (it’s 22% underwater) but it’s downright alabaster compared to the abattoir north and east of San Jose.  Here are the county by county numbers for 2012.

Bay Area County Percent of homes w/mortgage underwater Median Zillow Home Value Index Decline from peak value
Alameda 25% $447,100 -30%
Contra Costa 33% (highest 20% in US) $334,200 -46%
Marin 16% $716,500 -20%
Napa 30% $365,100 -42%
San Francisco 10% $771,100 -3%
San Mateo 15% $689.900 -15%
Santa Clara 15% $642,600 -13%
Santa Cruz* 23% $503,400 -31%
Solano 54% (highest 1% in US) $202,400 -58%
Sonoma 29% $357,800 -40%

And here’s a live version for you to play with, although you can also head over to Zillow and see it in action wherever you want to examine.

Comments (9) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:14 am

9 Responses to “Ever wonder why the East Bay isn’t in the RBA?”

  1. Real Estater Says:

    What this map tells you is that East Bay is where the opportunities are, specifically Alameda and Contra Costa counties. As a matter of fact, this statement is validated by recent numbers,which show these counties are experiencing some of the highest gains in median sales price. Go visit an open house in the East Bay right now, and you’ll find the lines to be even longer than RBA.
    When I saw this trend I focused my investment property search there in Q4 last year. After losing a few bidding wars, I finally got the deal done.

  2. DonnieJ Says:

    Opportunities if there was actually an inventory, and an absence of foreign funds, and business flippers who are taking advantage of buying properties with all cash, that could never be appraised at their bid with a conventional mortgage, and then turing around 3 months later and selling them for $100-200k more than they bought them for because of the affordability of a 3.5% mortgage.

    I decided to attempt to get at these opportunites after I saw prices in Winter 2011 as pretty decent, and competition was slim to moderate for what was available. In one of these counties (Alameda, and Fremont to be exact), You could find 3/2′s for around $400-425. Not the kind that are under Electric wires or adjacent to the highway, but decent ones. Now they are all priced at $585-620k. So much for wishful thinking, or opportunity.

  3. sonarrat Says:

    Long-term, I’m starting to think that San Francisco is the only smart investment. The steady demand and chronic lack of supply has kept home values fairly steady through everything that happened. There are still overpriced properties like everything else, but I think your average $1M house in the Castro or Nob Hill will hold its value as long as it’s still standing.

  4. nomadic Says:

    If you zoom in far enough on the Zillow map, you can see results by zip code. EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.

  5. Petsmart groomer Says:

    > EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.

    It’s actually 94303 as a whole, not just EPA ;-)

  6. madhaus Says:

    >> EPA and RWC (94063) start to bleed, as well as parts of SJ.

    > It’s actually 94303 as a whole, not just EPA

    Don’t be silly. Everyone knows that problems in Palo Alto are entirely caused by nonresident marauding hooligans. Even equity theft.

  7. Real Estater Says:

    Do you need more examples?

  8. SEA Says:

    Burglary in PA? I’m sure you can find plenty…

  9. Real Estater Says:

    Removed for personal attack unrelated to real estate. –ed.


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