People often ask us, “Why do you keep saying this is another bubble? All the real estate experts out there keep assuring us it isn’t.”

Puh-leeze, people! Do you really expect those so-called experts to understand the difference between national averages and Real Estate Where It’s Special? Of course not! Those silly “experts” think this isn’t a bubble because prices haven’t hit their pre-crash peaks.  Except if you followed real estate in the Real Bay Area you’d know that they have and they do, every day.  So let’s look at yet another “point of light” illuminating the real estate bubble that we damned well know is blowing up a little bigger every day in the RBA, Where It’s Special.

And even where it isn’t. Because today we’re looking at overbidding in Oakland.  Thanks very much to Burbed reader Bob in Oakland for the find.

3239 MONTEREY Blvd
Oakland, CA 94602
$840,000

5 Beds
3.5 Baths
4,971 Sq. Ft.
$169 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 2002
Lot Size: 8,755 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 104 days
Status: Active
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Community: Alameda County
MLS#: 81306257
Stories: 2
County: Alameda

Large beautiful home with a fantastic view!

This home may be large and beautiful, but the agent thoughtfully kept things simple by not including any photos other than the one you see right here. Now if that isn’t proof of a real estate bubble, we don’t know what to tell you. This house is telling you, you want an almost 5,000 square foot house? Well you can bloody well submit your overbid and hope you get to see the inside, then!

Did we say overbid? More like over-overbid, because last week the price got cranked up from $550k to $840k despite There’s No Bubble Here.

And if you’re wondering how the heck there’s almost 5,000 sf of house in this modest façade, have a look at the satellite photo. Looks like the builder went deep. Real deep. Also there’s another floor under the driveway, which means you’d best check the drainage.

Bunus: That’s a freeway in the bottom right corner: Lucky number 13!

Yes, another danged list! This time San Jose is #8 on the Least Affordable Housing Market list created by Trulia. Not only that, Oakland and San Francisco are ranked even better!  Let’s have a look, and also at this article that referenced the Trulia list.

Thanks very much to Burbed reader Petsmart Groomer for sending in the second article.

Affordability is measured as a mortgage payment at 3.8%, 30 year fixed, on an 1800 sf home at median price per sf divided by local average monthly wage for a worker.

Not only that, Oakland and San Jose metros are the 1-2 punch of year over year housing price increases, greater than every other Top 100 metro that Trulia examined.  San Francisco is also showing frightening gains at 19.6%, right behind Orange County.

But remember, 8s are very, very lucky.  Tell us how you feel about so many California cities on the Least Affordable List?  Are you going to keep renting or are you determined to get out there and overbid?

The Wall Street Cheat Sheet piece conveniently left our old nemesis Manhattan and environs off its list by completely ignoring it. After all, if you can’t increase housing prices by double digits, what the heck are you doing calling yourself unaffordable?

Now, what are we going to do about Honolulu? We’d better get those median housing prices up past a million in at least 15 more cities by next week!

We keep hearing from supposed real estate experts who want to assure would-be buyers that This Time It’s Different and There’s No Bubble Here. And we’ll be here to keep reminding everyone that in the Bay Area, Where It’s Special, There Most Certainly Is A Real Estate Bubble.  There’s been one before and there’s one again right now. Today we have yet another in our continuing Exhibitions of Proof Beyond Ultimate Proof.  Thanks very much to Burbed Reader Bob in Oakland for sending in this luscious listing! 

719 MANDANA Blvd
Oakland, CA 94610
Sold for $720,000

2 Beds
1 Baths
1,155 Sq. Ft.
$623 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1920
Lot Size: 5,750 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: May 24, 2013
HOA Dues: $13/month
Style: Craftsman
View: Greenbelt
County: Alameda
Type: Detached
Stories: Other
Community: Crocker Hghlands
MLS#: 40611221

Very charming craftsman bungalow with abundant period details. Just blocks from Peet’s, Trader Joes, Farmers Market, Arizmendi and the Transbay bus. Large terraced back yard ready for your creative touches.

Let’s listen in as Bob talks to himself, because nobody in their right mind would leave the Real Bay Area to visit Oakland.

This one just sold for more than at the peak of the last bubble: $720,000 this year, vs $677,000 in 2006.

The underwater seller sold it last year (3/23/12) for $465k.

Without any work having been done (at least, there was none mentioned in the listing), it listed on April 18 this year for $569k.

Redfin associate says ‘interior shows well, but could use some updates, especially the kitchen. Floors are a bit wonk.’

Went pending 11 days later, and sold for $720k.  Whoever sold it last year got taken, big time.

No bubble here folks. Just move along. Nothing to see.

It’s a decent part of Oakland, but a reasonably busy street…

Although at these prices it looks like the Real Bay Area is visiting after all.  And why not? This house is much closer to the Trestle Glen and Lakeshore neighborhoods than Crocker Highlands, but if it can go for 27% above asking in 11 days, why not choose a community 27% more impressive as well?

They’re on their way with the 27% busier street, now with more yellow on the map! Let’s see what your creative touches can do with that.

Let’s continue looking at some homes untouched by Bay Area Bubble 4.0 fever!  Thanks very much to Burbed reader dollarbin for this fantastic find: over 200 days on the market and wait until you see the price history! Amazing!

1915 83RD Ave
Oakland, CA 94621
$189,000

3 Beds
2 Baths
1,526 Sq. Ft.
$124 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1963
Lot Size: 5,400 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 210 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Custom
Community: East Oakland
MLS#: 40592548

Come and see this custom built Eichler in Oakland. You will own the house that everyone talks about. This house is an architectural masterpiece and the additional master bed and bath make it incredible. This is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland. Open House April 6th, 10 AM- 12PM.

Here’s what dollarbin thought of the place:

I’ve been sitting on this one for quite some time and it’s finally pending but as a short sale, I bet it will have a long luxurious escrow.  Check out the listing price history, more ups and downs than a whack-a-mole game. Bring on the Eichler lovers!

There’s so much to salute about this property, it’s hard to figure out where to start the rollout.  How about we take a look at all the attractive price points it has offered in search of the One True Buyer.

No wonder it’s selling shortly!  Don’t miss the Open House, either! Um, whoops.  Hey, this is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland!

Today is Sunday! That means better hurry up and make the most of Spring Bounce by visiting as many Open Houses as you can today.  It also means we put the alphabet away until Monday.

This particular house on the left isn’t listed as Open and probably won’t be, because it’s selling shortly.  The bank knows a lot more about it than the FB who wasn’t getting the monthly nut met.

And you don’t have to be a psychic to get that banks expect mortgages to be paid back.  Too bad this resident didn’t sense that sudden change in their domestic affairs. 

Here’s the most real estate-related card in the Tarot.  The Tower represents sudden change, release, downfall or revelation. Yes, that definitely sounds like a ride on a Bay Area Real Estate Bubble.

Thanks very much to Burbed reader Petsmart Groomer for observing the inherent contradiction in that listing photo.

This is an Open Thread. Share your predictions of where home prices are headed.  Or we’ll just post them for you as we shuffle the cards.

We’ll keep today’s Opening On the Outside, Only the Opposite.  Yes, it’s O day in the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, which means we Only do the letters in the Official Order.  On this day we Open Our ears, eyes and Other Orifices in the direction of Oakland. And we’ll keep this One sweet, as it’s selling shortly.

Or rather, it’s Opening On an Oversized Optimization for the Ordained Owner.

9437 PEACH St
Oakland, CA 94603
$69,500

3 Beds
1 Baths
1,080 Sq. Ft.
$64 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1985
Lot Size: —
On Redfin: 198 days
Type: Condominium
Stories: 1
Community: Oakland
MLS#": 40591208
Style: Ranch
View: Other
County: Alameda

Nice Three bedroom condo with a 1 car garage.

Didn’t they mean this One the Other way ‘round?  Looks like a nice One bedroom condo with a 3 car garage.  Only somebody Omitted the condo part.

If you Object that there’s no pictures of the condo at all (not even the Outside), we Offer the streetview and Orbital scape.  (As always, you have the Option click to Open a bigger One.)

Want to look at Open Houses but inventory is too low? Here’s yet another reason why Bay Area Bubble 4.0 is in full swing for Spring: Flash sales. Redfin coined this term for a house that’s in contract within 24 hours of being listed.

They also made a list of how many flash sales there have been in the last five months in each of the markets they cover, and San Jose came in 15th out of 15 with 74 quickies. San Francisco didn’t even make the cut at all!  All-time flash sales champion? Phoenix, with 540.

8271 SKYLINE Cir
Oakland, CA 94605
Sold for $650,000

3 Beds
2.5 Baths
2,090 Sq. Ft.
$311 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1998
Lot Size: 10,119 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: Dec 26, 2012
HOA Dues: $140/month
Style: Traditional
View: Bay, Greenbelt, Water
County: Alameda
Type: Detached
Stories: Split Level
Community: Skyline/Oakknoll
MLS#: 40598366

Amazing Oakland hills. 3/2.5 w/ extra office space. Incredible living space with 10ft ceilings, beautifully appointed thru/out. Chef’s kitchen with custom island, grnite, countertops, s. s. appliances. Electronic window coverings, deck with bridge views, gorgeous pergola/ backs to open space. Perfect!

This Skyline Circle home in Oakland was a Flash Sale and is featured on the Redfin Blog. It sold quick, and for list price. This is how we know Oakland, even in the hills, is not the Real Bay Area. Everyone knows Real Bay Area homes sell way over asking.  Also RBA homes don’t fester on the market for a year and a half until the Bubble finally blows up again.  The HOA dues are just the sickly sweet icing on the Not RBA cake.

Location: Oakland, CA
Listed By: Lynda Divito, Redfin
Listed: December 14, 2012
Pending: December 14, 2012
Closed: December 24, 2012
List Price: $650,000
Final Sale Price: $650,000

“This house never even hit the market! We had a brokers’ tour in the afternoon on the very same day the house was to hit the market. A broker came in with his buyers who offered all-cash at full list price and with the quick closing we had requested, making it an easy choice for my clients to accept their offer that same day.” - Lynda DiVito, San Francisco Bay Area Redfin Agent

Planning on visiting any Open Houses today? Let us know of any suitcases full of cash changing hands you see. This is also your Weekend Open Thread, so sky’s the limit!

Who’s priced out forever, and getting more priced out by the minute in Bay Area Bubble 4.0?  Not you! Not when you check out this completely affordable home in Oakmmphf CLOSE TO SAN FRANCISCO. Heck, you could pick up this sweet little lodging on your way home from the grocery store.  Well, you could if there were a grocery store anywhere near it.

Undisclosed Address
Oakland, CA 94621
$133,000

2 Beds
1 Baths
997 Sq. Ft.
$133 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1905
Lot Size: 3,200 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 4 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Victorian
Community: E Oakland
MLS#: 40607349

Great 3 bedroom / 1 bath home with Tall ceilings! (Public records 2bd/1ba buyer to verify all property information) Spacious family room. Large eat-in kitchen w/ tile flooring. Spacious bath with tiled flooring. Homepath and Homeapth Renovation Approved!

Again with the undisclosed addresses?  Burbed laughs at the idea and discloses them.  We know how to use… teh Google!

2070 85TH AVE
OAKLAND, CA 94621
$133,000

Single Res | 2 beds | 1 baths | 997 sq. ft. | 3200 acres | 17 days on market | MLS# 40607349
Active
Price : $133,000
Bathrooms : 1
List Date : 03/04/2013
Approx Square Feet : 997
Listed Days Back : 17
Price per sq. ft : $133
County : Alameda
Approx Lot Feet : 3200
Location : 2070 85TH AVE, OAKLAND, CA 94621
Approx Lot Acres : 0.073
MLS# : 40607349
Approx age : 108
Status : New-REO
Homeowner`s Association Fee : -1 / n/a

Anyone know the difference between Homepath and Homeapth Renovation? Don’t ask Redfin. This is below their minimum commission.

Answer: The RBA is being bought up by foreigners with suitcases full of cash going to individual sellers.  Not the Real Bay Area is being bought up by investors with envelopes full of cashiers checks going to banks.

Report: Investors buy nearly half of Oakland’s foreclosed homes

Real estate firms turning properties into rentals, becoming "massive landlords" in some neighborhoods, critics say

by Aaron Glantz, Bay Citizen — June 28, 2012, 11:01 a.m.

The rental listing advertises a “gorgeous remodeled craftsman-style house” with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a converted basement, a large deck and a backyard for $2,595 a month.

Eight months ago, this West Oakland home was owned and occupied by Theodros Shawl, a local chiropractor. Shawl bought the house in 2004, his first since emigrating from Ethiopia in 1990. Over the years, Shawl said, he rebuilt the home’s foundation and replaced its aging plumbing and electrical systems.

“I liked the fact that it was an older home, that I could repair and paint and fix there on the weekends. I was always at Home Depot,” said Shawl, 40. “I was living the American Dream.”

Last October, after being sidelined with a wrist injury, Shawl lost his home to foreclosure; in May, Bank of America sold it to a real estate investment firm, REO Homes 2 LLC, a company founded in 2010 by Bay Area businessman Neill Sullivan.

Lest you think this is a trend only in the depressed parts of the Bay Area, we assure you that it isn’t.  Real Estate Investment Trusts are back, mostly because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of places to get reasonable returns these days.  A recent article in The New Republic covers the growing national trend of paying cash for foreclosures and turning them into rentals.  Needless to say, actual would-be buyers are finding themselves aced out of the bottom-feeding.

Your New Landlord Works on Wall Street

Hedge funds are snatching up rental homes at an alarming rate

BY DAVID DAYEN, The New Republic, February 16, 2013

Housing analysts have been giddy for the past year about the comeback of their industry, whose collapse led to the Great Recession. Sure, 2012 was actually the third-worst year for housing ever—but it still beat 2010 and 2011. New and existing home sales, housing starts, and prices jumped in 2012, and experts expect an even stronger recovery for 2013.

It’s clear why people are so excited: Housing typically leads economic recoveries. As more people build equity in their homes, they feel more free to spend disposable income and increase economic activity, a phenomenon known as the “wealth effect.”  So a bullish outlook for housing would seemingly augur a long-awaited recovery to Main Street. But the more you look into it, the clearer it becomes that it’s not being driven by the typical American families who lost their homes in the economic crash. In fact, it’s being fueled by the banks and hedge funds whose speculation caused that crash in the first place.

If you’ve signed a lease in the past year, there’s a good chance your landlord wears a tailored suit and works on Wall Street. One of the hottest trends in the financial sector is known as “REO-to-rental.” Over the past couple years, hedge funds, private equity firms and the biggest banks have raised massive amounts of capital to buy distressed or foreclosed single-family homes, often in bulk, at bargain prices. Their strategy is to convert them to rental units for a while before reselling them when prices appreciate. The Wall Street firms are scooping up properties in the hardest-hit areas, promising high returns for the rental revenue streams—up to 10 percent annually —and starting bidding wars that have driven up some prices well above national averages. It’s the next Wall Street gold rush, with all the warning signs of a renewed speculative bubble.

Enjoy the Open Houses you’ll be making offers on but not buying because some sovereign wealth fund is outbidding you.

We’re not just having Black Friday deals, we’ve got the cheapest housing all throughout the Bay!  Today we’re looking for the cheapest house in Alameda County.

Think you can’t afford a house? Boom. You could buy this one and still have enough left over for… oh… ANOTHER HOUSE.  The argument e-store is now offline.

1351 91ST Ave
Oakland, CA 94603
$39,888

1 Beds 
1 Baths 
634 Sq. Ft.
$63 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1927 
Lot Size: 2,725 Sq. Ft. 
On Redfin: 5 days
Status: New
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Traditional
Community: Oakland
MLS#: 40596586

Nice started home, good for investor. Bring your offers

That’s right! Bring it!  When you do, maybe you can figure out what’s in the structure in the back and why the roof looks, um, distressed.

They did say it was a nice started home. You just have to figure out what they started.  But look on the bright side.  It’s a gated community!