June 13, 2013

Bay Area Bubble 4.0: Oakland. Yes, Oakland.

People often ask us, “Why do you keep saying this is another bubble? All the real estate experts out there keep assuring us it isn’t.”

Puh-leeze, people! Do you really expect those so-called experts to understand the difference between national averages and Real Estate Where It’s Special? Of course not! Those silly “experts” think this isn’t a bubble because prices haven’t hit their pre-crash peaks.  Except if you followed real estate in the Real Bay Area you’d know that they have and they do, every day.  So let’s look at yet another “point of light” illuminating the real estate bubble that we damned well know is blowing up a little bigger every day in the RBA, Where It’s Special.

And even where it isn’t. Because today we’re looking at overbidding in Oakland.  Thanks very much to Burbed reader Bob in Oakland for the find.

130612-monterey-redfin3239 MONTEREY Blvd
Oakland, CA 94602
$840,000

5 Beds
3.5 Baths
4,971 Sq. Ft.
$169 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 2002
Lot Size: 8,755 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 104 days
Status: Active
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Community: Alameda County
MLS#: 81306257
Stories: 2
County: Alameda

Large beautiful home with a fantastic view!

 

130612-monterey-aerialThis home may be large and beautiful, but the agent thoughtfully kept things simple by not including any photos other than the one you see right here. Now if that isn’t proof of a real estate bubble, we don’t know what to tell you. This house is telling you, you want an almost 5,000 square foot house? Well you can bloody well submit your overbid and hope you get to see the inside, then!

Did we say overbid? More like over-overbid, because last week the price got cranked up from $550k to $840k despite There’s No Bubble Here.

And if you’re wondering how the heck there’s almost 5,000 sf of house in this modest façade, have a look at the satellite photo. Looks like the builder went deep. Real deep. Also there’s another floor under the driveway, which means you’d best check the drainage.

Bunus: That’s a freeway in the bottom right corner: Lucky number 13!

Comments (6) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:02 am






June 9, 2013

We’re Number 8! We’re Number 8!

130608-trulia-sanjoseYes, another danged list! This time San Jose is #8 on the Least Affordable Housing Market list created by Trulia. Not only that, Oakland and San Francisco are ranked even better!  Let’s have a look, and also at this article that referenced the Trulia list.

Thanks very much to Burbed reader Petsmart Groomer for sending in the second article.

 

Rank US Metro % of monthly avg wage to pay mortgage YOY % change in prices
1 Honolulu, HI 74% 12.8%
2 San Francisco, CA 55% 19.6%
3 Orange County, CA 44% 21.2%
4 Ventura County, CA 41% 15.4%
5 Los Angeles, CA 41% 17.4%
6 (tie) San Diego, CA 37% 16.8%
6 (tie) Oakland, CA 37% 31.2%
7 (tie) Long Island, NY 35% 1.1%
7 (tie) New York, NY-NJ 35% 4.6%
8 San Jose, CA 33% 23.2%

Affordability is measured as a mortgage payment at 3.8%, 30 year fixed, on an 1800 sf home at median price per sf divided by local average monthly wage for a worker.

130608-trulia-oaklandNot only that, Oakland and San Jose metros are the 1-2 punch of year over year housing price increases, greater than every other Top 100 metro that Trulia examined.  San Francisco is also showing frightening gains at 19.6%, right behind Orange County.

But remember, 8s are very, very lucky.  Tell us how you feel about so many California cities on the Least Affordable List?  Are you going to keep renting or are you determined to get out there and overbid?

130608-trulia-pineappleThe Wall Street Cheat Sheet piece conveniently left our old nemesis Manhattan and environs off its list by completely ignoring it. After all, if you can’t increase housing prices by double digits, what the heck are you doing calling yourself unaffordable?

Now, what are we going to do about Honolulu? We’d better get those median housing prices up past a million in at least 15 more cities by next week!

Comments (6) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:04 am

June 4, 2013

Bay Area Bubble 4.0: Past Peak in Oakland

We keep hearing from supposed real estate experts who want to assure would-be buyers that This Time It’s Different and There’s No Bubble Here. And we’ll be here to keep reminding everyone that in the Bay Area, Where It’s Special, There Most Certainly Is A Real Estate Bubble.  There’s been one before and there’s one again right now. Today we have yet another in our continuing Exhibitions of Proof Beyond Ultimate Proof.  Thanks very much to Burbed Reader Bob in Oakland for sending in this luscious listing! 

130603-mandana-redfin719 MANDANA Blvd
Oakland, CA 94610
Sold for $720,000

2 Beds
1 Baths
1,155 Sq. Ft.
$623 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1920
Lot Size: 5,750 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: May 24, 2013
HOA Dues: $13/month
Style: Craftsman
View: Greenbelt
County: Alameda
Type: Detached
Stories: Other
Community: Crocker Hghlands
MLS#: 40611221

Very charming craftsman bungalow with abundant period details. Just blocks from Peet’s, Trader Joes, Farmers Market, Arizmendi and the Transbay bus. Large terraced back yard ready for your creative touches.

130602-mandana-kitchenLet’s listen in as Bob talks to himself, because nobody in their right mind would leave the Real Bay Area to visit Oakland.

This one just sold for more than at the peak of the last bubble: $720,000 this year, vs $677,000 in 2006.

The underwater seller sold it last year (3/23/12) for $465k.

Without any work having been done (at least, there was none mentioned in the listing), it listed on April 18 this year for $569k.

130603-mandana-kitchen2Redfin associate says ‘interior shows well, but could use some updates, especially the kitchen. Floors are a bit wonk.’

Went pending 11 days later, and sold for $720k.  Whoever sold it last year got taken, big time.

No bubble here folks. Just move along. Nothing to see.

130603-mandana-mapIt’s a decent part of Oakland, but a reasonably busy street…

Although at these prices it looks like the Real Bay Area is visiting after all.  And why not? This house is much closer to the Trestle Glen and Lakeshore neighborhoods than Crocker Highlands, but if it can go for 27% above asking in 11 days, why not choose a community 27% more impressive as well?

They’re on their way with the 27% busier street, now with more yellow on the map! Let’s see what your creative touches can do with that.

Comments (9) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:01 am

May 29, 2013

Welcome to Hilvista!!

Yesterday’s Fremont house was such a hit, let’s return to South Alameda County for today’s property.  Enjoy this premium listing in the highly regarded enclave of Newark!

130528-lakewood-redfin36623 LAKEWOOD Dr
Newark, CA 94560
$489,000

4 Beds
2 Baths
1,360 Sq. Ft.
$360 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1962 Lot
Size: 7,800 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 1 day
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Ranch
Community: Hill Vista
MLS#: 40616298

Welcome to Hilvista!! This four bedroom home is located on a quiet cul-de-sac close to Lakeshore Park. Located on a 7800 square foot lot, this home has been very well maintained and comes with a 6 year old composition roof. Spacious kitchen, inside laundry, hardwood flooring under carpeting & more. .

130528-lakewood-yardYes, Newark is indeed an enclave, surrounded completely by Fremont because it didn’t want to join in the the fun when the other 5 towns merged into a ginormous, sprawling mini-Los Angeles, only without the film industry and Rodeo Drive. Instead there’s NewPark Mall, which is better because there’s waaaaay more parking.

Thing about Newark is it’s entirely in the flatlands, so the name Hill Vista (or Hilvista) is a bit of a conundrum. Then we realized the vista is in the back yard.

Comments (4) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:05 am

May 28, 2013

Bay Area Bubble 4.0 Not in Fremont Yet

Good news! There’s still parts of the Bay Area you can find a house without beg letters and overbidding! Let’s fasten our seat belts and ford every stream to Fremont!

130527-salinas-redfin34587 SALINAS Pl
Fremont, CA 94555
$620,000

4 Beds
2 Baths
1,402 Sq. Ft.
$442 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1972
Lot Size: 7,422 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 1 day
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Contemporary
Community: Alameda County
MLS#: 81318199

Upcoming Open Houses

Saturday, Jun 1: 1:00-5:00 pm
Sunday, Jun 2: 10:30-5:00 pm

Regular sale! Great schools + Neighborhood + Quiet Cul-de-sac. Convenient to shopping. Near 880, 84 Freeways, & Ranch99 Supermarket. Open House Sat 6/1 1-5pm & Sun 6/2 10:30-5pm.

130527-salinas-streetviewSee that? Regular sale! Not an overbidding sale! Whew!  Only showing on exterior shot fooled us at first!

And this agent isn’t quite sure who to sell this house to. Note the mention of nearby 99 Ranch but not a single 8 in the price.

Also, you know how Palo Alto has 237 different neighborhoods, or “Communities” on MLS, but Sunnyvale, which has twice the population, only has one?  Look at this: Fremont, which was made up of five towns that merged together, doesn’t even merit its own Community. They put the whole thing together into Alameda County.  Sheesh, Wikipedia has a nice list of the various districts in Fremont and we were able to figure out where the house is (hint: the exact opposite of South not-Fremont).

Moral: the less Real Bay Area you are, the less Community you merit.  Houses in Stockton are in Community: Pacific Time Zone.

Comments (6) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:04 am

May 27, 2013

Overbids, in Berkeley? Mu.

Since we had a Sunday think piece (a really nice way to say TL;DR) yesterday on the supposed strength of schools in the East Bay (short answer: not even), let’s look at another property there. Today’s featured home for your holiday is brought to you from Berkeley by Burbed reader Bob in Oakland.  Thanks very much, and remember, if you have a listing that looks like it could use a little Burbed loving, please send it in!

130526-lincoln-redfin1411 LINCOLN St
Berkeley, CA 94702
Sold for $805,000

2 Beds
2 Baths
1,083 Sq. Ft.
$743 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1938
Lot Size: 3,570 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: Apr 10, 2013
Type: Detached
Stories: 2
Community: N Berkeley
MLS#: 40605874
Style: Bungalow
View: Other
County: Alameda

Charming N. Berkeley/ Northbrae Bungalow on charming Lincoln St. Updated baths, large front & rear yards, spacious laundry room plus bonus room perfect for office or guest suite. And, just 1 block to N. Berk BART, Ohlone pathway and bike routes.

130526-lincoln-kitchenNow let’s check in with Bob:

For your consideration:

This little shack sold for $805k, and went pending two weeks after listing for $599k.  Per a postcard sent out by the selling agent (and received by a friend who lives nearby), it received 16 offers.

Note the Redfin ‘tour insights’ (gotta love ‘em using the word ‘insights’ – it takes the deep intuitive gifts of a realtard to come up with gems like ‘nice house’):

  • 130526-lincoln-yard‘Not a fan of the kitchen’
  • ‘Kitchen is small and could use some updating.’
  • ‘There isn’t a great indoor outdoor flow. You need to go downstairs and out a side door to get to the backyard.’
  • ‘Upstairs bath a little funky….’
  • ‘Upstairs bath could use a remodel.’

130526-lincoln-faucetAlso:

There’s no garage – it was converted into a ‘guest room’ with sliding glass doors which provide a lovely view of the parking pad. 

The description says ‘large front and rear yards’, but the lot size is only 3,570 square feet.

The pix make it look decent sized, but ‘objects in wide-angle lens are smaller than they appear.’

130526-lincoln-fishmktNote the sideways-pointing faucet in the bathroom sink – never seen that before.

Yes, the neighborhood’s pretty nice, but $805k?  Maybe the buyer works in the financial district of SF, and decided that instead of a crappy condo for $1.5 million, they’d snap up this house which is a short, pleasant walk to North Berkeley BART.

I love ‘burbed’ – an island of sanity in a region gone batshit insane for real estate. Keep up the good work.

Not much we can add to that other than we’re talking a 34% overbid.  And how many times can one agent use the word “nice”?

130526-lincoln-nice

Comments (8) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:04 am

May 9, 2013

You will own the house that everyone talks about

Let’s continue looking at some homes untouched by Bay Area Bubble 4.0 fever!  Thanks very much to Burbed reader dollarbin for this fantastic find: over 200 days on the market and wait until you see the price history! Amazing!

130508-83rd-redfin1915 83RD Ave
Oakland, CA 94621
$189,000

3 Beds
2 Baths
1,526 Sq. Ft.
$124 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1963
Lot Size: 5,400 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 210 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Custom
Community: East Oakland
MLS#: 40592548

Come and see this custom built Eichler in Oakland. You will own the house that everyone talks about. This house is an architectural masterpiece and the additional master bed and bath make it incredible. This is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland. Open House April 6th, 10 AM- 12PM.

130508-83rd-saluteHere’s what dollarbin thought of the place:

I’ve been sitting on this one for quite some time and it’s finally pending but as a short sale, I bet it will have a long luxurious escrow.  Check out the listing price history, more ups and downs than a whack-a-mole game. Bring on the Eichler lovers!

There’s so much to salute about this property, it’s hard to figure out where to start the rollout.  How about we take a look at all the attractive price points it has offered in search of the One True Buyer.

130508-83rd-history

No wonder it’s selling shortly!  Don’t miss the Open House, either! Um, whoops.  Hey, this is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland!

Comments (12) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:09 am

April 24, 2013

Ultimate Upwardness: Union City!

BlogAtoZ-UAs we move Unto the remainder of the alphabet, our regular readers may be Upset with our Undue Urgency in Upholding this Blogging from A to Z Challenge. Uh-Uh-Uh! Remember, we’re here to help, and that means finding anywhere in the Bay Area where prices are Up. 

Uh, right now that’s, Um, pretty much all of it.  Today we’re more Understanding of just how many places are Undulating Upwards, even the Underfunded, Underdeveloped, or Underhyped Urban Uniqueness that is… Union City.

Not even pending yet. Urrah!

130423-smith-redfin3771 SMITH St
Union City, CA 94587
$449,950

3 Beds
1.5 Baths
1,216 Sq. Ft.
$370 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1953
Lot Size: 7,740 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 1 day
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Custom, Ranch
Community: Alvarado Dist
MLS#: 40611658

Welcome to this fine home with so much to offer, new carpet, frest paint inside, large lot with access to rear from front with drive through garage. This home is zoned residental and commercial buyes should check on what type of business can be placed should that be the use selected.

130423-smith-kitchen130423-smith-paintjob130423-smith-living130423-smith-seethru

So many Uses, yet zoned residental.  Say “Ugh!”

Comments (1) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:08 am

April 21, 2013

Open Houses, Open Threads, Open Minds, Open Wallets

130420-fallon-redfinToday is Sunday! That means better hurry up and make the most of Spring Bounce by visiting as many Open Houses as you can today.  It also means we put the alphabet away until Monday.

This particular house on the left isn’t listed as Open and probably won’t be, because it’s selling shortly.  The bank knows a lot more about it than the FB who wasn’t getting the monthly nut met.

130420-fallong-psychic

130420-fallon-tower130420-fallon-crisisAnd you don’t have to be a psychic to get that banks expect mortgages to be paid back.  Too bad this resident didn’t sense that sudden change in their domestic affairs. 

Here’s the most real estate-related card in the Tarot.  The Tower represents sudden change, release, downfall or revelation. Yes, that definitely sounds like a ride on a Bay Area Real Estate Bubble.

Thanks very much to Burbed reader Petsmart Groomer for observing the inherent contradiction in that listing photo.

This is an Open Thread. Share your predictions of where home prices are headed.  Or we’ll just post them for you as we shuffle the cards.

Click here to post a comment -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:02 am

April 17, 2013

Oh-Oh Or Oops in Oakland

BlogAtoZ-OWe’ll keep today’s Opening On the Outside, Only the Opposite.  Yes, it’s O day in the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, which means we Only do the letters in the Official Order.  On this day we Open Our ears, eyes and Other Orifices in the direction of Oakland. And we’ll keep this One sweet, as it’s selling shortly.

Or rather, it’s Opening On an Oversized Optimization for the Ordained Owner.

130416-peach-redfin9437 PEACH St
Oakland, CA 94603
$69,500

3 Beds
1 Baths
1,080 Sq. Ft.
$64 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1985
Lot Size: —
On Redfin: 198 days
Type: Condominium
Stories: 1
Community: Oakland
MLS#": 40591208
Style: Ranch
View: Other
County: Alameda

Nice Three bedroom condo with a 1 car garage.

Didn’t they mean this One the Other way ‘round?  Looks like a nice One bedroom condo with a 3 car garage.  Only somebody Omitted the condo part.

If you Object that there’s no pictures of the condo at all (not even the Outside), we Offer the streetview and Orbital scape.  (As always, you have the Option click to Open a bigger One.)

130416-peach-streetview130416-peach-aerial

Comments (7) -- Posted by: madhaus @ 5:05 am