The Richest Cities Where No One Wants to Move

24/7 Wall Street
By Charles B. Stockdale, Michael B. Sauter; Posted: February 3, 2012 at 7:01 am

Many Americans still are holding off on buying homes in some of the country’s most expensive cities. While home prices fell 23% on average in the largest cities since the housing crisis began, for many home buyers the drop was not enough. Based on a new report released by Trulia, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 metropolitan areas to which no one wants to move.

Trulia ranked the 100 largest metropolitan areas by their Metro Movers ratio, which measures homebuyer activity and interest metropolitan areas. The ratio compares the number of online searches of local residents looking to buy elsewhere to the number of out-of-town homebuyers looking for real estate in the area. According to the report, a ratio of two means that there are twice as many home searches by people looking to leave the area as to move in. All of the cites no one wants to move to have a ratio higher than two.

The cities that attract few buyers experienced modest home price declines since the recession began, especially relative to their high home value. As a result, home prices in these areas are forecast to decline further, and homebuyers are waiting until they do. All of the 10 cities no one wants to move to have among the most expensive homes in the country. Newark and Bethesda, two cities with twice as many people looking to leave as looking to move in, have among the top 10 highest median home values in the country. Home prices in these cities declined at just the national average, and next year, they are projected to decline more.

I think this 24/7 Wall Street site has forgotten how the real estate market works.  Expensive markets do not stop being expensive because other markets are not expensive.  Expensive markets are Special, and the decline of other markets makes Special markets More Special.

On the other hand, the list of the Top Ten Places Where More People Want to Move Out Of Than Move To is not as full of Specialness as you might expect.  Consider this conclusion:

People do not want to move to cities that are largely older and more densely populated. Regions in the northeast that are of little interest to out-of-town buyers include Philly, Newark and New Haven. Other older metropolitan areas include San Jose and Seattle. Kolko suggests the move away from urban areas has a lot to do with expense. “Even though people often say they want to live in urban neighborhoods where they can walk more and drive less, they get more for their buck where the car is king. Most long-distance searches are toward smaller, suburban, more sprawling areas, not toward the older, dense cities of the northeast.”

Yes, that explains completely why exurban areas are increasing in value compared to close-in neighborhoods near major employers.  Just look at the price increases in a community of newer homes in Danville, compared to a worn-out community full of tired, old houses in Palo Alto.  And the price of gasoline going up shouldn’t have any effect on communities further from high-paying jobs, either.  After all, the car is king, and if you’re going to sit in traffic for an hour and half, your reign will last longer.

Ah well.  On to the list of places people can’t wait to leave.  Have you made any predictions which metro areas will qualify?

For the chart below, the Metro Movers Ratio is the above mentioned proportion of residents looking at homes outside the region versus other people looking at homes in the region, per Trulia.  The home value decline is from peak pricing, and the forecasted percent change in home price is through third quarter of 2012.  For comparison, the national unemployment rate was 8.7%, while the typical home declined 23% from the peak nationwide.

Curses!  Losing out the #1 spot is bad enough, but losing to NEWARK?  This is a grave insult.  People may want to move out of Newark, but I assure you, it isn’t because it’s too expensive.  It’s because it isn’t Special, and no doubt residents aspire to relocated to Places of More Specialness.

I mean, can you really take this analysis seriously, when this is what they have to say about our being #2 on the list?

Image of San Jose from Yahoo News Story; Sean O’Flaherty / Wikimedia Commons

The median home price in the metropolitan region of San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara is $546,000, the third highest in the country. The median family income is the fourth highest in the country. Home prices may simply too high for many people. The median mortgage payment at the peak of home prices as a percentage of median monthly family income was 46%. This is one of the highest rates in the country, reflecting the exceptionally large burden home prices place on residents in the area.

There is no price that is too high for the Real Bay Area.  These writers are clearly spending too much time in those tired and broken down urban hellholes of the Northeast, and couldn’t recognize Specialness if it bit them on the ass.

Look at this kitchen.  Now this is the kind of Specialness you can only get in San Jose for half a million dollars!

High home mortgages are not a burden, they’re a reward for getting to live here!  Plus, they’re tax deductible!

The counties included in the “San Francisco” regional index are the aforementioned City and County of San Francisco, as well as Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, and San Mateo.  That’s right, it’s not a full Bay Area index and note the absence of Santa Clara County, that engine of high-paying job creation.

Today, we take a look at the magical cut-off point to qualify for the top tier.  According to Fielding, any house selling for more than $579,803 is in the top tier (there are three of them).  Let’s see what kind of palatial abodes you could have for this kind of money.  All homes shown today are at selling prices rather than the wishing ones.

2916 SOMBRERO Cir
San Ramon, CA 94583
$585,000, sold on 12/8/2011

If you’re looking in San Ramon, here’s a 3 bedroom, two and a half place for you. It’s not a new house, though, this was built in 1980.

The development it’s in sits hard against the freeway (and there’s only one in San Ramon, I-680), but the property itself does not. Instead it backs onto what is now open space.  Given how many new homes went up in San Ramon, the new owner will have some quiet over the back fence until the next bubble starts boiling up.

5205 MANILA Ave
Oakland, CA 94618
$580,000, sold on 12/24/2011

This cute little bungalow is in the Rockridge district, desired by hipsters and yuppies alike.  It’s a 2/1, but at over 1200 square feet it doesn’t qualify for the Burbed “cozy” tag.

There’s absolutely no information about previous sales on Redfin, but with a $43,000 assessment, this obviously wasn’t a flip.  The sellers went all-out with the staging and photography, so enjoy.

122 Crescent Rd
Corte Madera, CA 94925
$594,000, sold on 12/22/2011

Wow, what a home, complete with extra rooms the county obviously didn’t know about.  Listed as a 3/2.5, but recorded as a 2/1.  This place hiding in the woods of Marin County against a hill is going to be a contractor’s retirement fund.

Be sure to check out the sales history on this former REO puppy, it’s crap-tastic.

2051 SULLIVAN St
San Mateo, CA 94403
$585,000, sold on 11/30/2011

Everything in this price range in San Mateo is on the east side.  “Bunus:” This 3/2’s near the 101/92 cloverleaf, which is why it needs the doublepane windows.

This house sold for $795K in 2006, but at least it went for above asking this time around.

328 Monticello St
San Francisco, CA 94132
$583,000, sold on 10/19/2011

Amazingly, this Merced Heights house doesn’t directly touch walls with its neighbors.  And if you decide it isn’t for you, there are plenty of SF State students to rent it to.  Anyway, you or your tenants are going to have loads of fun with the tandem parking garage.

The house last changed hands in 1989, for $271K.  Quite the investment that doubles its value in 22 years.

We won’t bother with Santa Clara County, as it’s not in the Case-Shiller SF Index anyway.  If it were, that top tier would be a bit higher and way more Special.

Vancouver Bubble Watch: 25-Person Bidding War

By Paul Kedrosky · Thursday, April 21, 2011 · ShareThis

I was sent this by someone today on the latest madness in the Vancouver real estate market. It sort of blew my mind — 25 bidders, $655,000 premium, and 34% over the asking price for a house on 50×125 lot.

Kitsilano house goes for $655,000 over asking

Kitsilano, B.C.

Published Thursday, Apr. 21, 2011 6:02PM EDT

2466 WEST 14TH AVE., VANCOUVER

ASKING PRICE $1,895,000

SELLING PRICE $2.55-million

PREVIOUS SELLING PRICE $531,000 (1996)

DAYS ON THE MARKET eleven

THE ACTION: This contemporary West Coast residence in Kitsilano was listed for $1.895-million on a Friday, but the first showings were held a week later. This tactic, combined with its attractive price point, helped retain the interest of so many buyers that 25 made an offer. The one accepted presented $655,000 more than the asking price.

Sigh. What will it take to bring healthy economics like that to the Bay Area?

What can we do to avoid being left behind?

So on Monday we looked at an affordable house with easy commutes in the Bay Area – just $288 per square foot in East Palo Alto.

Today, let’s look a house in the same category in the suburbs of our mortal enemy: New York

419 Willow St Westbury, NY 11590

$369,000

Beds:	3
Baths:	1.5
Sq. Ft.:	1,300
$/Sq. Ft.:	$284
Lot Size:	8,084 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Detached
Style:	Colonial
Year Built:	1924
Community:	Westbury
County:	Nassau
MLS#:	2306655
Source:	MLSLI
Status:	New
On Redfin:	191 days

Charming Colonial Has Been Updated With New Kitchen, Ss Appliances, Granite Countertops. Hardwood Floors On Main And Top Floors, Fabulous Sunlit Home, Sliders To Deck In Rear Yard, Beautiful Landscaping, Separate Shed On Property. Must See! Fabulous Yard

Now, let’s look at what’s going on for about the same $/sqft in one of our two mortal enemies: Seattle!

18316 NE 21st St Redmond, WA 98052

$525,000

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,800
$/Sq. Ft.:	$292
Lot Size:	7,725 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential
Style:	1 Story
View(s):	Territorial
Year Built:	1969
Community:	Microsoft
County:	King
MLS#:	165784
Source:	NWMLS
Status:	ActiveThis listing is for sale and the sellers are accepting offers.
On Redfin:	8 days
Cumulative:	151 days

Large elegant rambler. Giant open living room + formal dining + breakfast counter. Lots of Italian tile, new carpet and paint. Remodeled baths and kitchen. Entertainment size deck with hot tub. Tam-O-Shanter Golf Club community with golf, Olympic pool and tennis courts.

So it’s in a golf club. So it’s got some of the nation’s best schools. But is it near Google and Facebook? Does it have the Bay Area schools? Does it have great sushi? (No, all they have is teriyaki!)

Sure they’re similar in price per square foot, but let’s face it – Redmond simply isn’t as livable as East Palo Alto. Add to that the lack of a state income tax… well… what would you do with all your money? Save it for retiring? Stop working and become a slacker?

Further proof that the Bay Area reigns supreme and why our awesome ho
using prices help drive our awesome innovation.

Here’s my recommendations. I know people have given me hell over making comparisons, but I think its always interesting to see what "the rest of the country" is like in regards to housing costs.Here goes nothing.
So here’s a comparison:
The first is a 3 bedroom, 3 bath 1,800 sq foot home in Redwood city. Its referred to in the listing as a "co-op". It can be yours for $819,000

Done. That’s above.

Next?

As its comparison, here is a 4 bedroom, 3 bath house outside of Nashville TN.
It is about the same size- 1,844 sq feet and was built in 1930. The house has been fully renovated. Total cost? $219,000, or about 4 times less than the Redwood city house. Again- this is a comparison.

Well, let’s take a look:

Now, on face value this might seem ridiculous – after all, the Redwood Shores one is 4x as much and is likely to fall into the Bay when the Big One hits.

But that’s face value – let’s talk about FaceTime and FaceBook! Do they have Apple or social networking startups in Nashville? Nope. How are you going to make your millions there? Do they have a 2010 World Series Champion there? Probably not. Do they have the Bay Area’s best schools? Of course not!

Sorry Bob. Sure this might be 1/4 the price, but I can’t even think of 1/4 the reason why anyone would want to move to Nashville. And I haven’t even brought up the sushi argument yet…

NY-area rents are not as high as one might think

Grumble, if you will, about high rents and warren-like apartments. Just be glad you don’t live in San Jose.

America’s 15 Safest States

15. New York

Assault: 25
Burglary: 47
Murder: 26
Motor Vehicle Theft: 45
Rape: 49
Robbery: 9

Ha ha! Look at that! New York is all the way at the bottom of the list of America’s 15 Safest States!

Let’s see where California ranks!

15 Most Dangerous U.S. States

#15: California

Assault: 18
Burglary: 25
Murder: 16
Motor Vehicle Theft: 3
Rape: 41
Robbery: 5

Booyah baby! #15 on the list of Most Dangerous States!

Further proof that if you can make it here in California, you can make it anywhere!

And while we’re at it….

25 Craziest Cities in America

2. San Francisco

Psychiatrists per capita: 1
Stress: 57
Eccentricity: 2
Drinking: 11 (tie)
Local Character: Samir “Sammy” Keishk spent 18 months and $12,000 working on a 2,260-pound rubber-band ball in a quest to set a Guinness world record.

 

7. New York City

Psychiatrists per capita: 4
Stress: 19
Eccentricity: 4
Drinking: 49 (tie)
Colorful Character: Robert John Burck, better known as the Naked Cowboy to anyone who’s ever walked through (or heard of) Times Square, stuns and entertains passersby with his outfit: cowboy boots, a hat, and briefs that he hides with a guitar. (AP Photo/Tina Fineberg)

Take that again New York!

Man… we are just rockin’ it out!

Top 29 Cities to live in

1: New York City

10: San Francisco

I think this is a case of good news/bad news. The good news is that San Francisco scored 9.2/10 for cost of living, while our mortal enemy New York scored a mere 8.9/10. WOOHOO!

That said, it’s clear the methodology of this report was wrong. They should’ve been comparing Silicon Valley!

$469,000 – 526 KNICKERBOCKER RD, TENAFLY NJ

Property Remarks

POTENTIAL SHORT SALE! SUBJECT TO LENDER/BANK APPROVAL. RARE OPPORTUNITY ON A BRIGHT AND CHARMING WELL KEPT CENTER HALL COLONIAL HOME ON DOUBLE SIZE (145X138) LOT.THIS VALUABLE HOME FEATURES 3B/R,11/2BTHS,2DRIVEWAYS ,DEN AND HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT. WALKING DISTANCE NYC BUS,PARK, SHOPPING,AND BLUE RIBBON DISTRICT SCHOOL.

Ha ha. Got you didn’t I? An $469k for a 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath single family house in a good school district? You’re out of your mind.

Instead, you’ll have to go to the “unaffordable” (HAH) east coast, especially that New Jersey where everyone is always complaining about how “expensive” it is to live there.

Take that NJ and your affordable homes in the nation’s best (not California’s best) school districts.

Just look at these lame stats:

Median Household Income of $118k? With house prices like this? Forget about it! (or…  fuhgeddaboudit). There’s no comparison!

The Bay Area continues to lead the nation in un-affordability, fair and square.

Congrats Bay Area!