In today’s installment of Yes There Is Too a Bay Area Bubble 4.0, we present a few signs what it looks like when a region is not in a real estate bubble.  Notice that there is nothing like this in the Real Bay Area.  When we have a recession here, homeowners simply don’t list their properties at a loss from typical RBA overbidding.

Not so in the “Gateway to the Delta.”  Remember, you can’t spell Solano County without S-O-L.  Thanks very much to Burbed reader Tom Paine for shooting us this article.

9 Worst Recession Ghost Towns in America

The Fiscal Times (Slideshow)

Rio Vista, CA

Once envisioned as an 855-home suburb with families populating the grid of freshly paved streets and sidewalks, now the only life you’ll see in this desert development are cows and eucalyptus shrubs. Thirteen abandoned model homes lie clustered in the center of the development, and streets like “Serenity Drive” stretch on past empty dirt lots into the barren distance. Construction was halted in November 2008 when developer Shea Homes abandoned the project.

Photo: Webecoist.com

These three photos below are from that link as well.  Truly stunning, spooky, and sad, these would make great material for Edgar Martins.

Be sure to check out this older story from the Chronicle on this unsuccessful development.

There’s more of the death of this development’s boosterism on the Rio Vista Wikipedia page.  The Census data for 2007 predicted the city’s population of 7,800 would swell to 20,000 by the year 2020.  The 2010 Census update mentions no such expected population surge.  Meanwhile, population dropped to 7,300.

This charming graph, courtesy of Zillow, gives you an idea of just what a “recovery” looks like far from the Real Bay Area. This shows the median sale price per square foot over the past ten years.

There are photos of other places on both sites further from exurban Bay Area.  California City (Not Anywhere Near the Bay Area, Hell, Not Even in Northern California) has huge areas that were platted out but never built on.

Just wait until you get to the Florida pictures!

This was a National Geographic Photo of the Day for Wednesday, May 8th.  Yes, it’s real.  No, we don’t care if you think it’s shopped and that you can tell by the pixels.  It’s real. We swear we are not making this up.

Click to learn more about where in Mexico this was taken and what the photographer noticed about this place.  Then tell us if you saw any Open Houses today that were in a tract of suburban sameness.

Yes, this is indeed your Weekend Open Thread!

All week we’ve been looking at examples of No Bubble Here, all over the San Francisco Bay Area. But today’s house shows otherwise.  Thanks very much to the Burbed reader who sent this in but wouldn’t make up a dorky nickname. (Warning: next time we make one up for you.)

Undisclosed Address
Walnut Creek, CA 94595
$550,000

4 Beds
2.5 Baths
2,213 Sq. Ft.
$249 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1947
Lot Size: 0.30 Acres
On Redfin: 14 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Contra Costa
Style: Ranch
Community: Walnut Creek
MLS#: 40612224

Great area of Walnut Creek, large level yard, needs lots of work bring your contractor NOT handyman!!

Here’s what Burbed reader Too Lazy To Even Try To Make Up My Own Nickname had to say about this listing:

I know inventory is tight where I’m looking but $550K????? For what?

Naming rights? Ahahahahaha!  Actually for $550K you also get the street name, which we will kindly provide to all our readers for absolutely nothing.  What better proof of a bubble is there than sellers who won’t tell you where the danged house is?

Meadow Rd,
Walnut Creek, CA 94595
$550,000

Loan Payment: $1,885/mo
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 2&1/2
Size: 2,213 sqft
$/sqft: $248/sqft
Type: Single Family House
Year Built: 1947
Lot Size: 12,900
Days on Movoto: 14 days
MLS#: 40612224
Status: Pending

Great area of Walnut Creek, large level yard, needs lots of work bring your contractor NOT handyman!!

Oh, what’s this, you want a street number as well? Picky, picky. Some people are just so demanding.

Estately’s listing doesn’t have the address anymore, so let’s hear it for latency in search engines!  Let’s also hear it for the great job Zillow did hiding that this place is for sale.

Bring your contractor and CIA agent not handyman and GPS!

Let’s continue looking at some homes untouched by Bay Area Bubble 4.0 fever!  Thanks very much to Burbed reader dollarbin for this fantastic find: over 200 days on the market and wait until you see the price history! Amazing!

1915 83RD Ave
Oakland, CA 94621
$189,000

3 Beds
2 Baths
1,526 Sq. Ft.
$124 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1963
Lot Size: 5,400 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 210 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Alameda
Style: Custom
Community: East Oakland
MLS#: 40592548

Come and see this custom built Eichler in Oakland. You will own the house that everyone talks about. This house is an architectural masterpiece and the additional master bed and bath make it incredible. This is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland. Open House April 6th, 10 AM- 12PM.

Here’s what dollarbin thought of the place:

I’ve been sitting on this one for quite some time and it’s finally pending but as a short sale, I bet it will have a long luxurious escrow.  Check out the listing price history, more ups and downs than a whack-a-mole game. Bring on the Eichler lovers!

There’s so much to salute about this property, it’s hard to figure out where to start the rollout.  How about we take a look at all the attractive price points it has offered in search of the One True Buyer.

No wonder it’s selling shortly!  Don’t miss the Open House, either! Um, whoops.  Hey, this is the only Eichler in this part of Oakland!

Yesterday we had a look at a Redwood City house with a curious price history.  Today’s featured fortress has fewer data points, but don’t worry, it makes up for it in overbids! Thanks very much to Burbed reader LomaLuvr for launching this one.  And we’ve got fresh data to share!

548 VIEW St
Mountain View, CA 94041
Sold for $1,061,000

2 Beds
1 Baths
994 Sq. Ft.
$1,067 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1924
Lot Size: 6,300 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: May 7, 2013
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Stories: 1
Community: Downtown
MLS#: 81308770

Great Location! 1924 cottage on approximately 6300sft lot two blocks from Castro Street! Mostly original cottage sits on this large lot, ideal for renovation or maybe rebuild. Excellent location two short blocks to Castro Street. Theatre, coffee shops, restaurants and train station all within blocks!

Actually, LomaLuvr sent this in long ago, before we started in with the A to Z thing all April. But it’s good news for you that we waited, because now we have the winning overbid, and it’s 18% over asking. Ha! You call that a bubble? Why back in our day, an agent could list a house full of crappy photos near the train tracks and the buyers would throw offers through the windows tied to gold bars!

Hey, wait.  You think the gold bars are back?

Let’s return again to our roots and feature one of the homes that Burbed was best known for. Have a look at this spacious place while we take a good look at some prices.

418 ALDEN St
Redwood City, CA 94063
$390,000

1 Beds
1 Baths
640 Sq. Ft.
$609 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1925
Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 18 days
Property Type: Detached Single Family
View: Neighborhood
County: San Mateo
Stories: 2
Community: Lenolt
MLS#: 81312880

NEW KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOP, NEW WINDOWS, NEW BATHROOM. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED CLOSE TO SHOPPING, FREEWAY AND TRANSPORTATION.

For $390K, you’re only going to get one GRANITE COUNTER TOP and one NEW BATHROOM and zero photos of either. But that’s not the only reason we’re featuring this delightful dwelling.  Have a look at the listing from the last time it went on the market, as a short sale.

418 ALDEN St
Redwood City, CA 94063
Sold for $239,000

1 Beds
1 Baths
640 Sq. Ft.
$373 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1925
Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.
Sold On: Jun 10, 2011
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Community: Lenolt
MLS#: 81053292
Stories: 2
County: San Mateo

SHORT SALE. SALES PRICE AND COMMISSION SUBJECT TO LENDER’S APPROVAL.

Just because the price went up 63 percent due to a GRANITE COUNTER TOP doesn’t mean we’re in a bubble. 

Why, just take a look at the price history for this palace.  We have a lovely little line graph for you as well as the screenshot from Redfin.

Obviously there’s no Bubble 4.0 in this part of Redwood City, because it was completely derailed after 2006. All the dots on the graph are sales except for the last one on the right, that’s the current asking price.

Do you have any doubt where this investment is heading? In case you don’t, the house itself has the answer for you.

It’s been far too long since we’ve heard from one of our favorite correspondents from the East Bay, Burbed reader A Lewis.  A (he says we can still call him A) writes in to let us know that there is still real estate worth following in his favorite city of El Cerrito. Let’s have a look and listen in.

6332 Barrett
El Cerrito, CA 94530
Sold for $1,200,000

3 Beds
2.5 Baths
3,441 Sq. Ft.
$349 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1941
Lot Size: 0.54 Acres
Sold On: Apr 19, 2013
Type: Detached
Stories: 2
County: Contra Costa
Style: Colonial
Community: Miravista Highls
MLS#: 40608299

a classic Colonial Revival on a 1/2 acre estate. Custom built with lavish attention to detail. Features include a 2 story tall portico at the entrance a wide spiral staircase to the upper floor inside, and fabulous access to patios and gardens from various entry level rooms. Ideal for entertaining

Take it away, A!

Update 6:45 pm: A says it’s fine to include the following graf that we thought was social chitchat just for us.

** Sorry I abandoned the site – but I’ve been priced out forever, and Real Estater was right about the stock market, so I just had to admit my own limitations and tried to spend time thinking about things besides real estate. I’m still a renter. But I can’t stop myself from occasionally looking at Redfin in my neighborhood, which you will recall is the hills of El Cerrito – 94530 baby! **

Here’s a house I know that tried to sell in 2008 for $1.2M, failed pitifully because of the ‘crash’, but they waited it out, and lo and behold, they got their price last week! And I wanted to share the listing because the first pick has 6, yes 6 columns showing!

So in my mind, prices in the hills of El Cerrito are back to peak levels, and appear to be rising.

I don’t know if that qualifies us for RBA status, but we seem to be back to where we were in 2007 (oh, except for having about 25% of the inventory), a crazed over-bidding environment on places that need a lot of work. People writing letters with their offers to beg for the privilege of buying with no contingencies, etc…

I guess another difference is how much buying is all-cash – in 2007, I think there was a lot more leveraging.

It’s a great time to sell a house, that’s for sure. But I can’t afford to buy one – oh well! I’d say I missed my chance, which was about Q1 2012, but prices hadn’t dropped enough for me to afford things even then.

Maybe the next crash will be harder. Maybe not – I bought a lotto ticket last month as an alternative way to solve the problem…

Looking at how bekawlumned this house is, we don’t understand why A didn’t sell every vehicle, video, and spare family members to own this house. Every bedroom just screams, “Oh my God, I live here!”  Why this is almost as impressive as what you can get in Palo Alto for a similar asking price.

Can you imagine what you’d have to pay for kawlums in The Real Bay Area?

Here’s a press release from the “Lending Tree of Real Estate Agents.”

LessThan6Percent Revolutionizes How Home Sellers and Real Estate Agents Connect

Press Release: LessThan6Percent – Mon, Apr 29, 2013 6:39 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO, April 29, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — LessThan6Percent (http://www.lessthan6percent.com), the online marketplace where home sellers can compare commissions and marketing plans from local real estate agents, is exiting its beta launch in the San Francisco Bay Area and expanding into Southern California. Founded in late 2012 by serial entrepreneur Simon Ru, LessThan6Percent provides home sellers a convenient platform to streamline the process of finding the best agents to represent their home.

"The problem home sellers face is that there are thousands of agents in any given market," says Ru. "It is difficult for home sellers to compare agents to find the best match. They don’t know what questions to ask, what to look for in a marketing proposal, or how to start the awkward conversation of negotiating services & commissions." This is where LessThan6Percent steps in.

LessThan6Percent differs from traditional agent-matching service such as Trulia (http://www.trulia.com/) and Zillow (http://www.zillow.com) by matching sellers to proposals submitted by agents rather than agents’ profiles. Instead of directing sellers to call agents’ numbers on a directory, LessThan6Percent transforms the matching process by having agents compete for sellers’ business. With a click of a button, home sellers would know exactly what services they are going to receive and how much they would cost. This level of transparency is unparalleled in the real estate industry.  

You may have noticed that LessThan6Percent is one of our newest advertisers, featuring that oversized entry form on the right. We’re certainly in accord with their business model. Some home sales are pretty routine, and there’s no reason why the six percent commission rate has been enshrined as unchanging. Personally, we’d like to see home sales done as flat fees, because that would mean the buyers’ agent wouldn’t have a financial incentive to advise you to bid more than a home is worth.

Then again, we are in Bay Area Bubble 4.0, every house is worth more than it’s listed for, and you couldn’t possibly pay too much for a place in the Real Bay Area. That means your agent was right to tell you to overbid by 85%.

Meanwhile, LessThan6Percent says you can specify what you want in an agent and look over the proposals you get in response.

And if their algorithm predicts you may be likely to sell, watch for their ads appearing wherever you surf.  This reminds us of that creepy datamining prediction that Target became infamous for: figuring out you were expecting before the rest of your family knew.

But LessThan6Percent also expects to reel in many leads through an algorithm that the company has created to identify people who are likely to sell. Ru said the algorithm scours a wide array of information sources, including social media, and then turns up likely sellers, like people who it’s discovered are having children soon.

The company then uses printed materials, cookies and keyword advertising to invite those people to use the site, Ru said.

- See more at: http://www.inman.com/2013/04/08/new-website-lets-sellers-see-proposals-from-listing-agents

According to Ru, the comments on this article were “getting heated” once a NAR official showed up. It appears Inman removed them by moving the article to a new location and conveniently neglecting to bring any comments along… or even allow them to be made.

LessThan6Percent envisions having agents slug it out for the right to sell your house. Why not have a good fight in comments on what you think of this idea? 

Are you looking at any Open Houses next to a farm?

Photo credit thanks to Galen Ward.

It’s Friday! That means here comes your weekend, so we’d like to present a great location for a Silicon Valley stay-cation!  Thanks very much to Burbed reader Swan for sending this one in before the A to Z challenge (THANK GAWD THAT’S OVER IT WAS HARSHING OUR CRAPBOXEN). Fortunately the property is still very much on the market.

18157 WAGNER Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95032
$7,499,000

5 Beds
8 Baths
8,517 Sq. Ft.
$880 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1999
Lot Size: 25 Acres
On Redfin: 45 days
Property Type: Detached Single Family
Stories: Tri-Level
Community: Los Gatos/Monte Sereno
MLS#: 81308591
Style: Traditional
View: Mountains, Canyon, Valley, City Lights
County: Santa Clara

Spectacular transformation! Vastly improved property from two years ago. Complete remodel of existing home with added sq footage, brand new 3100sf toy barn/garage, new 800sf pool house cabana w 500+sf covered patio, over an acre of new cabernet vines, bocce ball court, lacrosse field/sport court, wine cellar, 3car garage, workout facility, 600sf storage rm, outdoor entertaining paradise w pool!!!!

Let’s check in with Swan on this swank setting:

I have many properties I’ve been planning to send you, but I came across the following this morning and it rose to the top of the list:

At first, I thought I’d submit this home because of the realtard’s line, "Vastly improved property from two years ago." What is that realtor speak for?  Then, in looking at the pictures, I realized I’d seen this somewhere before!  

Yes, a finished home is a vast improvement!  Landscaping helps too!  From the pictures, it seems someone has been living there. The listing history goes on… Be sure to check out photo number 24 of the storage room.  An 8500 square foot home and you need 600 square feet of storage?  The current occupants have sure put the storage room to good use!

Have at it…

Yes, this place looks familiar, doesn’t it?  Or maybe not, since they finished painting and put all those ladders in the 600 square foot storage room.  It sold in May, 2011, for $5.75 million, and these listing photos look a little different than what we covered here.

Although we miss the ladders.  Made the place look like part of an Edgar Martins exhibition.

Also, we found the before before pictures.  Don’t miss them (kitchen pictured at left).  They might have asked for $3.95M that round, but they got $1.8.  You really have to check out the property history, because before that it was foreclosed on, maybe even twice in two weeks, and before that it was listed for $7.8M.  Good luck figuring out if it sold for $5.6M, or $7M or both or neither!  This house and its grounds have been nothing but a big and very expensive game of Hot Potato going back all the way to 2000!

So, Burbed readers, why is this amazing estate still on the market after an eternity of 45 days? Do you think the flippers are waiting to collect even more overbids?  Now that would be an even happier ending.