In today’s installment of Yes There Is Too a Bay Area Bubble 4.0, we present a few signs what it looks like when a region is not in a real estate bubble.  Notice that there is nothing like this in the Real Bay Area.  When we have a recession here, homeowners simply don’t list their properties at a loss from typical RBA overbidding.

Not so in the “Gateway to the Delta.”  Remember, you can’t spell Solano County without S-O-L.  Thanks very much to Burbed reader Tom Paine for shooting us this article.

9 Worst Recession Ghost Towns in America

The Fiscal Times (Slideshow)

Rio Vista, CA

Once envisioned as an 855-home suburb with families populating the grid of freshly paved streets and sidewalks, now the only life you’ll see in this desert development are cows and eucalyptus shrubs. Thirteen abandoned model homes lie clustered in the center of the development, and streets like “Serenity Drive” stretch on past empty dirt lots into the barren distance. Construction was halted in November 2008 when developer Shea Homes abandoned the project.

Photo: Webecoist.com

These three photos below are from that link as well.  Truly stunning, spooky, and sad, these would make great material for Edgar Martins.

Be sure to check out this older story from the Chronicle on this unsuccessful development.

There’s more of the death of this development’s boosterism on the Rio Vista Wikipedia page.  The Census data for 2007 predicted the city’s population of 7,800 would swell to 20,000 by the year 2020.  The 2010 Census update mentions no such expected population surge.  Meanwhile, population dropped to 7,300.

This charming graph, courtesy of Zillow, gives you an idea of just what a “recovery” looks like far from the Real Bay Area. This shows the median sale price per square foot over the past ten years.

There are photos of other places on both sites further from exurban Bay Area.  California City (Not Anywhere Near the Bay Area, Hell, Not Even in Northern California) has huge areas that were platted out but never built on.

Just wait until you get to the Florida pictures!

All week we’ve been looking at examples of No Bubble Here, all over the San Francisco Bay Area. But today’s house shows otherwise.  Thanks very much to the Burbed reader who sent this in but wouldn’t make up a dorky nickname. (Warning: next time we make one up for you.)

Undisclosed Address
Walnut Creek, CA 94595
$550,000

4 Beds
2.5 Baths
2,213 Sq. Ft.
$249 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1947
Lot Size: 0.30 Acres
On Redfin: 14 days
Type: Detached
Stories: 1
County: Contra Costa
Style: Ranch
Community: Walnut Creek
MLS#: 40612224

Great area of Walnut Creek, large level yard, needs lots of work bring your contractor NOT handyman!!

Here’s what Burbed reader Too Lazy To Even Try To Make Up My Own Nickname had to say about this listing:

I know inventory is tight where I’m looking but $550K????? For what?

Naming rights? Ahahahahaha!  Actually for $550K you also get the street name, which we will kindly provide to all our readers for absolutely nothing.  What better proof of a bubble is there than sellers who won’t tell you where the danged house is?

Meadow Rd,
Walnut Creek, CA 94595
$550,000

Loan Payment: $1,885/mo
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 2&1/2
Size: 2,213 sqft
$/sqft: $248/sqft
Type: Single Family House
Year Built: 1947
Lot Size: 12,900
Days on Movoto: 14 days
MLS#: 40612224
Status: Pending

Great area of Walnut Creek, large level yard, needs lots of work bring your contractor NOT handyman!!

Oh, what’s this, you want a street number as well? Picky, picky. Some people are just so demanding.

Estately’s listing doesn’t have the address anymore, so let’s hear it for latency in search engines!  Let’s also hear it for the great job Zillow did hiding that this place is for sale.

Bring your contractor and CIA agent not handyman and GPS!

Zoinks! Today’s the very last day of the Blogging from A to Z Challenge, and it’s also the last of the Triple Threat of Cityless Letters! There are no cities or towns in the Bay Area that start with Z. There aren’t even any neighborhoods in our two largest cities willing to cooperate. What to do, what to do?

We could discuss the complete fail that is the Zero lot line home. (How can you water your own lawn when there’s a house in the way?)  We could really Zone you out by digging deep into tl;dr territory with some Zoning violations! Or how about our favorite series on this site, ever? Yes, Zillions of Zip Codes!

Fortunately, we’re not going there. Instead, let’s drop by one of our favorite real estate sites.

5866 Zileman Ct
San Jose, CA 95123
Pending: $650,000

Est. Mortgage: $2,274/mo
Bedrooms:4 beds
Bathrooms:2 baths
Single Family:1,846 sq ft
Lot:6,534 sq ft
Year Built:1968
Last Sold:Dec 2012 for $565,000
View virtual tour

Construction Quality 6.0
Garage Size 439
Last Remodel Year 1969
Lot Depth 113
Lot Width 58
MLS #81309066
Parcel #69215003
Roof TypeAsphalt
Room Count 8
# Stories 1.0
Structure Type Contemporary
Unit Count 1
View Mountain
Zillow Home ID 19828550

Description

Modern beautiful sparkling remodeled home,spacious and bright, freshly painted inter and exter. approx 1846 Sf of living space,6554 sq.ft.lot , warm and cozy 4 largebedrooms and 2 new baths, dual pane windows,recessed lighting,central air,indoor laundry, living room with fireplace, finished 2 car garage,updated kitchen w breakfast nook. Nice curbappeal

Zestimates

Value: $570,609
Range: $428K – $605K
30-day change: +$25,268
$/sqft: $309
Last updated: 04/28/2013

Rent Zestimate $2,591/mo
Range: $1.1K – $3.4K/mo
30-day change: -$8
$/sqft: $1.40
Last updated: 04/29/2013

Market Guide

Zillow predicts Santa Teresa home values will rise 5.8% next year, compared to a 5.9% rise for San Jose as a whole. Among Santa Teresa homes, this home is 21.1% more expensive than the mid-point(median) home, and is priced 9.3% more per square foot.

Zounds! That stormy sky is no Zephyr! More like dialing the HDR up to 11 when Zero would have been more appropriate. Yeah, photographer was too Zealous. And when we Zip inside, best bring your Geiger counter, because there’s particle decay in them thar bedspreads. Watch out for Zeta rays (there’s no such thing, but it sounds all science-y and danger Zone if you get Zapped by them).

Most of all, Z is for Zestimate, Zillow’s best known feature. This home’s Zestimate is $570K, when it was listed for $650K and went pending in 3 days. What do you predict this house will end up selling for?  Don’t forget the curbappeal.

We told you there was a Bay Area real estate bubble. This mercurynews.com (motto: we were once a newspaper, really!) article caught our attention. Not only does it lend support to everything we said about peak housing prices in northwest Silicon Valley and other prime real estate markets, there’s another interesting reveal as well.

Bay Area housing recovery spreads from Silicon Valley to East Bay

By Pete Carey, San Jose Mercury News
Posted:   04/26/2013 06:54:33 AM PDT, Updated:   04/26/2013 06:54:55 AM PDT

The Bay Area’s overheated housing market is restoring thousands of homes to their pre-crash peak values in a ZIP-code-by-ZIP-code recovery that is rapidly spreading from Silicon Valley to the East Bay.

Thirty-four of 185 ZIP codes in five counties have regained or surpassed their bubble-era peak home value or are less than 1 percent from it, according to this newspaper’s analysis of February median values for all homes from online real estate site Zillow.

Another 49 ZIPs are within 15 percent of their previous highs, including 18 in the East Bay. A year ago, only part of leafy Palo Alto had regained the value it lost after Bay Area home values crested in 2006-07.

"Seven or eight years ago, there was really a bubble," said Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California. "Now it’s just good real estate where values are returning to near past peaks."

Yes, This Time It’s Different 4.0.  This is “good real estate” as opposed to Bay Area Bubble 3.0 which was also considered “good real estate,” as we can see by looking at some of the stories they ran in 2006.  Here’s one:

MercuryNews.com | 10/03/2006 | ‘Burdened’: Area owners pay a big chunk of their income for housing
Lenders and other home buying experts said they’re not surprised by the numbers, which they said reflect a long-running trend in the Bay Area. And some questioned whether the 30 percent figure was outdated, saying many people can afford to pay more.

[snip]

Lenders and real estate experts said home buyers in the Bay Area are used to paying more for housing than home buyers elsewhere, and that many, like Singer, use their homes as a savings plan. Most have figured out how to manage the extra debt, they said. In some cases, borrowers are making smaller down payments than previous generations of home buyers.

“(They) are going to make the lifestyle change necessary to own a home, which may mean that 50 percent of their income goes to their mortgage. . . . (They) don’t go out to dinner, they don’t go shopping anymore. It’s about changing their lifestyle,” said Andrea Lanier, a mortgage broker with the San Mateo office of Bankers Preferred Real Estate Loans.

But what we’d also like you to pay attention to is the map pictured above.  Green represents home values above the 2005-08 bubble previous peak, and red means the current value is below the pre-crash peak.  And by “values” they mean those Zestimate numbers that Zillow not only made up, they keep changing the historical data retroactively. Hope that’s science-y enough for you because we’re sure convinced! 

The first thing we noticed was that there’s green where we expect to find it: along the 280 spine.  Where’s the red? Why the East Bay, of course.  Now, let’s look at this map next to a few others we’ve featured in the past.  As always, you can click on any map to see a larger version.

First, here’s the map above next to a recent Zillow map of negative equity.  Difficult to have high home values when the homes are worth less than the “owners” owe on them.

Next, the infamous “Whole Foods vs Walmart” location maps.

And finally, the some of the “Real Bay Area” maps we’ve provided in the past.  2010 is on the left, 2008 on the right.

And here’s the granddaddy.

Hate to say we told you so, but we told you so — about ten kajillion times.  Eventually Bay Area Bubble 4.0 will raise East Bay home prices above the last peak, by which point The Real Bay Area (which most certainly does not include the East Bay) will be so expensive that even dual-income Google couples will be Priced. Out. For-EVEH!

Until Bay Area Bubble 4.0 goes all Bubblepopcalypse on us and we start preparing for Bay Area Bubble 5.0. As you load up on gold bars and dried beans, let us know what Open Houses you were checking out, because this is also your Weekend Open Thread!

And now for your weekly dose of gee-whiz, tech news!

Real estate apps can help, overwhelm homebuyers

By Dan Nakaso, San Jose Mercury News
Posted:   03/29/2013 06:00:00 PM PDT; Updated:   03/29/2013 06:57:43 PM PDT

Raj Aurora has been searching to buy his first home for the last three months, but hasn’t wasted time looking at condos he knows he won’t like and hasn’t even needed to meet his agent, all thanks to real estate apps that Aurora downloaded on his iPhone 5.

"We’ve already eliminated 20 to 30 houses without driving around," said Aurora, a 42-year-old chiropractor and part-time Web developer from Danville. "I don’t want to sit with (my agent) for eight hours driving from house to house. I’d rather hang out with my dog and my friends."

Aurora instead checks out properties virtually by glancing at his Zillow and Trulia apps throughout the day, then reviews any possibilities via text or email with his Danville real estate agent, Kevin R. Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty, whom Aurora has yet to see.

We think the Merc headline has an extraneous comma.  We also think Mr. Aurora doesn’t need to see Mr. Kieffer as long as Bay Area Bubble 4.0 ensures that homes are sold faster than they can be listed.

If you’ve been reading this site for more than a few days, you’re already aware that there are several real estate sites out there that have information on homes for sale. And if you’ve spent any time on the sites themselves, they probably let you know about their various apps for different devices.  Because, if you don’t want to be PRICED OUT FOREVER, you have to be ready to look at new listings at any possible moment, day or night.

Also, if you’re anything like Raj Aurora, you will do absolutely anything to avoid coming into contact with people you don’t have to.

This is your weekend Open Thread.  Let us know which, if any, real estate apps you use to find those open houses you’ll be looking at later today.  Be sure to mention the superiority of whatever hardware you’re using it on as well, because if you don’t have enough respect for your zip code, at least you can have it for your mobile device. Or talk about anything you want at all.  Remember, this isn’t having to actually talk to other people, so you can say anything.

Let’s finish out the week with a double dose of Mountain View Bubble 4.0: this house is a floor wax and a dessert topping. Today’s featured property was brought to you courtesy of Burbed reader bublidoo.  Thanks very much for a listing so aerated that we had to go to four different sites until we found a photo of the actual house as it exists today.  Yep, pending in a week!

460 N Whisman Rd
Mountain View, CA 94043
$1,149,000

Loan Payment: $4,000/mo
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 3&1/2
Size: 1,999 sqft
$/Sqft: $574/sqft
Type: Single Family House
Year Built: 2013
Lot Size: 4,960
Days on Movoto: 9 days
Neighborhood: Whisman
MLS#: 81305578
Status: Pending – Do Not Show

Stunning newly constructed custom 4/3.5 Craftsman located on a great lot close to downtown MV, Google and easy commute routes! This gorgeous open floor plan inc. 2 master suites, one 1st floor, 3.5 designer baths, gourmet chef?s kitchen with granite counter tops & stainless steel appliances, large island w/counter seating & sliding doors to patio. Perfect for entertaining! Close to top MV schools!

So why is this house nominated for a big ol’ Burbed hug? Let’s check in with our reader whose very name implies Bubble 4.0.

wanted to point out this stunning, newly constructed custom craftsman to you. If it was near good schools or downtown Mountain View (the description claims both … but not sure about "near"), perhaps the price could be justified. But what we’re looking at here …

is an asking price well over a million bucks for a single family house (yes, stunning, I forgot, sorry …) on a small lot within the vapor intrusion study area. And the listing comes on the heels of super fun coverage by burbed, the local TV channel, and the Mountain View Voice. One has to wonder why the agent didn’t include "Buyer to attend meetings on toxic vapors. Walk to Google Offices!"

Perhaps there’s been too much super fun coverage already? In that case, no pressure … and hope you had a chuckle.

Cheers!

Oh no, bublidoo, you can never, ever, ever have too much Super Fun.  Want some more?  Let’s look at this house over on Redfin, where’ they’ve pulled down the listing and are featuring the before photo (singular) and listing copy. 

Did we mention how much we love Pending/Do Not Show?  It’s like an extra set of presents we completely missed behind the Christmas tree!  And speaking of extra presents, look what we found on Zillow.  This is like finding out we’re celebrating Chanukah too, as an added extended family holiday, with bunus presents!

Wow, who knew that side of the family was so artsy?  (Or too klutzy to use a camera?)  Must be because of those good schools.

This is why.

This is Zillow’s map of negative equity by county in Central California.  The more red, the more they bled.  You can look at the map by state, by county, and by zip code.  At the county level, we can see that the only Bay Area regions that aren’t about to terminate from failure to clot are Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin Counties.  Santa Cruz County is looking a little pink around the neck (it’s 22% underwater) but it’s downright alabaster compared to the abattoir north and east of San Jose.  Here are the county by county numbers for 2012.

And here’s a live version for you to play with, although you can also head over to Zillow and see it in action wherever you want to examine.

Sometimes a picture explains what words cannot.

Rising home values push more Bay Area homes above water, Zillow says

By Pete Carey, San Jose Mercury News

Posted: 02/21/2013 06:26:11 AM PST, Updated: 02/21/2013 06:26:39 AM PST

Rising prices pushed thousands of Bay Area homes back above water last year, according to a report released Wednesday, another sign that the region's housing crisis is easing as the economy recovers.

The report, by the housing website Zillow, shows drops across the region in the number of homes that are underwater — worth less than the value of their mortgages.

More than 56,826 homes bobbed back above water across seven counties of the Bay Area in 2012, Zillow reported. That still leaves 205,986 homes with a total negative equity of $31.5 billion.

Now let's see the graphic. See? Fewer homes are underwater! That means more of them are Special, so more are also in the Real Bay Area! They must be making more Real Bay Area land.

Glad we could clear this up.

Okay, vacation’s over. Time to get back to work, and that means heading over to real estate sites to plan on where you really want to live.  Boss has the door shut, so fire up those listing websites! And today’s listing was sent (during coffee break) by Burbed reader Divasm.

1959 Belle Ave
San Carlos, CA 94070
$2,100,000 (Listing removed 2/8/13)

Zestimate^®: $1,957,700
Est. Mortgage: $1,883/mo
Bedrooms:4 beds
Bathrooms:5 baths
Single Family:3,532 sq ft
Lot:5,227 sq ft
Year Built:2012
Last Sold:Mar 2012 for $525,000
Heating Type:Forced air

Description

” Tuscan Villa” – Centrally situated, within walking distance to Award winning “Brittan Acres” & “Central” schools. South Bay views from Master bedroom. Construction to start summer ’10 built by luxury home builder The Armanini Group (TAG) Builders, Inc. This home consists of six large bedrooms, den, five full baths, Family room boosting stone fireplace, extra-large eat in Kitchen with breakfast bar & nook open to Family room, Living room with single-beamed ceilings, panelled ceiling in Dining room and attached two Car Garage / shop. Anderson wood windows, (full bullnose) granite countertops in Kitchen, travertine stone in Master bath, designer ceramic tiles in auxiliary baths, Kohler plumbing fixtures, custom hand-made cabinetry throughout by local craftsman, Thermador appliances, 3/4″ distressed hardwood flooring, 14 seer-rated air conditioning units, high energy efficient multi-zoned forced-air central heating, tank-less (space saving) insta-hot water heater, wireless computer network, smart home electronics for computer programming your lighting, heating & air conditioning, audio, video & irrigation and extensive millwork throughout the entire home. Not all features mentioned. For a personal showing of this magnificent home in San Carlos, please call Michael or Genna Armanini at (cell) 650.218.5123 or email us at [email protected] PRICE, TERMS AND MATERIALS UTILIZED SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE, CONTACT YOUR REAL ESTATE BROKER FOR CURRENT PRICING & TERMS. CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS “NEW CONSTRUCTION RESIDENTIAL PURCHASE AGREEMENT AND JOINT ESCROW INSTRUCTIONS” CONTRACT TO BE UTILIZED IN THE PURCHASE OF SUBJECT PROPERTY. FOCUS-LIVE-ENDURE!

No photos, just plans. Inappropriate use of quotation marks. A BUNCH OF ALL CAPS TEXT AT THE END. Best of all, construction promised the summer of… three years ago.  Oh, this is going to be good.  Let’s check in with Big D.

I was browsing listings in San Carlos and came across this $2.1mil gem. It sounds terrific on paper, and I guess I can see why it’s so expensive, San Carlos, 4/4.5, 3500 square feet, built in 2012. But was it really?

The pic shows a sketch, and the satellite view shows a big dirt lot. Perhaps since then a house has popped up for which they offer to show you the plans, but then why not show a pic? Is it because you’re buying a lot and approved plans for $2.1mil? And look at the history, it’s all over the place. If I had any time I’d drive by myself and check it out…but it certainly must have some reason it’s been on the market for 138 days.

Hmm, plans on Zillow, sketch on Movoto, along with this description:

Off market until construction complete approximately mid-May. New quality construction. Plans available to view. Go to: www.johnshroyer.com, Click on “My Featured Listings”, scroll to photo of property, disclosures

Mid-May of what year? We’re starting a pool.  And who is John Shroyer? What happened to Michael or Genna Armanini? Does their cell phone still work? Did they pay their Summer 2010 bill?  How did that FOCUS-LIVE-ENDURE! thing work out for them?

Meanwhile, this construction site gave us some serious déjà vu, and for good reason.  Find out why, after the break.

(more…)

Today’s delicious domicile comes to you from Alameda, the island garden of the Bay.  Or should we say Oakland Afloat? Estuary Estates? Maybe you have an even better name for Alameda than those! Thanks very much to Burbed reader JL for finding a house with a creative command to the buyer.

492 MCDONNEL Rd
Alameda, CA 94502
$599,000

3 Beds
2.5 Baths
1,625 Sq. Ft.
$369 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1992
Lot Size: 3,895 Sq. Ft.
On Redfin: 19 days
Status: Pending
HOA Dues: $365/month
Style: Contemporary
Community: Bay Colony
MLS#: 40601391
Type: Duet
Stories: 2
County: Alameda

Very sunny duet home W/ big lot, great size open backyd, spacious driveway, cul-de-sac. Extra high ceiling grand entrance. Gorgeous new kitchen. double pane window. HOA cover exterior, roof, front yd & insurance. close to ferry terminal. One of a kind. Must see. Nobody pass away inside the house.

Here’s what JL had to say about the house:

Burbed is the best! I had to pass along an Alameda listing that has generous and inexplicable amounts of fail.

First, there’s only outside pictures. Never a good sign. But the best thing is the description. Granted, I think we may have a non-native speaker as the writer, but the last line is hilarious no matter what.

The strange thing is, this looks like a nice house. The redfin Streetview link takes you to a street over a block, but if you go to Google street view directly, it shows a decent-looking place. So the Redfin listing could have been nice, but instead was awesomely bad.

Awesomely bad? It’s not every house that’s not just part of a cookie-cutter tract but a gol-durn “duet home” in a cookie cutter tract that can call itself “one of a kind”! Now that’s awesomely something!  Plus there’s insurance in the front yard! The $365 a month HOA fees are just the cherry on this Win Sundae!

We tried to find the collection of “only outside pictures” without success.  Other listing sites either had the photos removed (with the listing marked as off market) or a slightly different set of photos, inside as well as out.  Here are a couple more, just in case Redfin yanks these bright and early Monday morning. 

And we mean it about the bright, as the Cherenkov radiation is strong in this one.  Just for grins, check out the outdoor pix on Zillow!  Must see.

Serious WHOA.  Of course if we had a yard like that, we wouldn’t pass away inside the house either.